Governo aprova diploma sobre malparado (outra vez e com um ano e meio de atraso)

[Luka!]

Cheio de "humor" negro o Zacks hoje !!!



Dear Subscribers,

After the non-stop losses of the past week, the bounce higher early on Tuesday was no surprise. However, the events after the FOMC statement at 2:15pm ET are a bit more curious. Here is my paraphrased version of what the report says; "Things really suck out there. Much worse than we imagined. And we expect it to get even worse from here. Sorry we don't have any solutions that will help. Good luck. And God bless." From there we endured a mini flash crash of sorts, pressing to new lows of Dow 10,613. Then for some unknown reason, we started sprinting higher in the last hour all the way to 11,239. Right now I see no good rational reason for that move. But obviously some investors like the odds for the market to press higher from here.

I will join them in their optimism when I see some better economic data. Until then, I am in the cautiously bearish camp and my portfolio reflects that sentiment. And that is a reminder to all to make sure that your portfolios match up with your expectations. If they are out of sync, then you may be very disappointed with the results...

[Luka!]

Dear Subscribers,

In the course of just two weeks we have rebounded ferociously and are now within spitting distance of the recent highs. What changed? Investor perspective.

In April expectations were running high for the economy and subsequently for stocks. Then May and early June economic data showed that the prior outlook was too rosy leading to an appropriate correction. But as often is the case, investors overshot the mark and became too pessimistic. Now, with much lowered expectations, the next round of economic reports looked much better. So with no recession in sight, stocks rebounded mightily.

The next hurdle is 2nd quarter earning seasons, which kicks off this week with Alcoa. The earnings estimate revisions into this earnings season were the weakest since the market bottomed in 2009. Meaning that expectations are nicely muted and should provide an easy target to hit, or better yet, exceed. If that is in the cards, then expect us to make new highs by late July, with a trip north of Dow 13,000 quite likely.

[Luka!]

Dear Subscribers,

It turns out that the ADP Employment Report was moved to Thursday because of the July 4th Holiday earlier in the week. So that means Thursday brings a double decker jobs sandwich of ADP + weekly Jobless Claims. This will only whet investors' appetite for the jobs main course on Friday, the government Employment Situation report. Expectations are pretty low and should be easy to topple.

As for Wednesday, it was slightly positive for stocks because the ISM Non Manufacturing numbers still show gains, but nothing spectacular. Right now that is the story with most of the economic data…it is positive, just nothing to write home about. And that, my friends, is what Muddle Through Growth is all about.

Gladly Muddle Through Growth (approx. +2% GDP) is enough to keep corporate earnings and dividend payments on the rise. So in that light, stocks are a much better deal than any cash or bond alternative given their negligible returns. Meaning, it's not that modest GDP growth is always good for the stock market. Its good now given that the alternatives stink that much more.

[Luka!]

Dear Subscribers,

After the big rally last week, it's not surprising that stocks took a breather on Tuesday. Simply it will be hard for them to press higher without the jobs data this week rebounding from the awful May readings.

ADP Employment Report leads things off on Wednesday. Followed by weekly Jobless Claims on Thursday and then June Employment Situation on Friday. The latter is the
most important of the three and is expected to rise from a fairly anemic 54,000 jobs added in May to 110,000 added in June. The ADP report will provide a solid preview of whether that 110K is doable. And stocks will react accordingly.

[Luka!]

Dear Subscribers,

The first few weeks of June were straight up nasty. Volatility spiked and stocks lurched up and down with fear clearly on the rise. Yet this final week of the month provided non-stop movement to the upside catching many bears by surprise. Now the S&P 500 is smashed up against the 50 day moving average.

Where to next? Better than expected readings on Consumer Sentiment and ISM Manufacturing Index Friday will have us springing ahead and maybe taking a shot at the highs made in late April. If those reports are mediocre then we will probably stall out for a while with the 50 day providing stiff resistance. If the news is bad, then we will be right back at the recent lows within a few days.

It makes for high drama…but no one said investing would be easy. Get ready to make the right moves given the outcome of these reports.

[Luka!]

[b]Hoje o unico comentario seria : cara ou coroa (mais subidas ou mais quedas ...)[/b]

Dear Subscribers,

Yesterday I said: "It's nearly a 50/50 coin flip on what will happen. But if someone forced me to take a guess, then I would say we will keep creeping slightly higher until earnings season begins in two weeks."

Looks like I got the direction right, but the move Wednesday didn't qualify as creeping…that was leaping. Will it keep leaping though??? We have two meaty reports coming up that will provide us the answer. That includes the weekly Jobless Claims report on Thursday morning followed by ISM Manufacturing on Friday. If those are ahead of the currently muted expectations, then we could be back at Dow 12,500 very quickly. If they horribly disappoint, then right back to 12,000 we go.

Place your bets!

[Luka!]

Parece que o Zacks esta longo ...

MAS sera que a euforia do rebound nao vai passar rapidamente assim que uma ou duas estatisticas menos favoraveis sejam divulgadas... e voltemos às quedas ?

Wait & see... o "momentum" de subidas dos mercados US parece enfraquecer... alguns grandes titulos 'inteligentes' também (ex: AAPL) Convite a uma entrada "short"... depois do rebound ?


Dear Subscribers,

Last Tuesday the market made a big leap above 12,000 to 12,190. That was the 4th straight day in positive territory and bullishness was on the rise. Then came a three day losing streak that pushed us as low as 11,893. Monday and Tuesday of this week provided 2 straight Herculean leaps back to 12,189. A near mirror image of last Tuesday's close.

However, will we proceed higher or are we going to get smacked down once again???

If things stay true to the recent past, then it will depend on the quality of the news headlines; Greece/Europe and economic data. On the other hand, it may not depend on that if investors are ready to "climb the wall of worry". And that outcome is quite possible given that expectations have been greatly reduced. In that environment it doesn't take much good news (or just less bad news) for stocks to advance.

It's nearly a 50/50 coin flip on what will happen. But if someone forced me to take a guess, then I would say we will keep creeping slightly higher until earnings season begins in two weeks. Depending on what we find there will determine the next big move for the markets.

[Luka!]

Dear Subscribers,

Dow 12,000 continues to show that it is neither strong resistance nor strong support. That's because we have cut through it so many times like a knife through butter. Interestingly Dow 10,000 was the same. We battled over that territory for almost an entire year between October 2009 and September 2010.

I'm sure we'd all like to think that the tussle with 12,000 is now over, yet there is still too much doom and gloom in the air to make that assumption. Gladly expectations are nice and low coming into the July earnings season. A strong showing there and we probably rise above 12,000 for a good stretch. Unfortunately that leaves far too much of the summer, and its natural pessimism, for us to feel comfortable just yet.

That is another way of saying, expect more of the same battle over 12,000 for the next couple months. Yet since I don't think we will go that much lower than there, a patient investor can snap up the values now and wait for a nice payday by year's end.

[Luka!]

When Fed Says Nothing, They Are Saying A Lot - 6/23/11þ


Dear Subscribers,

Stocks looked like they were going to put in a 5th straight session in the plus column Wednesday. Then Ben Bernanke's press conference soured the mood in a hurry.

What did he say that sent spooked investors? He said nothing at all. He just repeated everything he has said in the recent past;
Inflation is up, but don't worry.
Economy is growing slowly, but don't worry.
QE2 is over by end of June, but don't worry.

What's so bad about that? Well obviously there were many traders who were banking on a new QE3 to keep the dollar and interest rates down which would be good for the stock market (remember what a great tonic that was for stocks as they went from Dow 10,000 to 12,800). Without any help from the Fed, then the economy will have to mend itself. Which I think it will. It's just not as sure of a bet as having the Fed bankrupt future generations for us making quick stock market gains today.

This probably means that our arch nemesis, volatility, will hang around a bit longer. Yet as time progresses I think the Fed will be proven right. That being the economy will continue to grow and that should be enough to promote new job creation, higher corporate profits and higher stock valuations. So those with patience will be rewarded for buying stocks at current valuations.

[Luka!]

Is this bounce for real ?...

Dear Subscribers,

My fellow investment commentators were struggling to attach a reason to Tuesday's ferocious gains. The most commonly used answer was to say that hopes for a positive resolution in Greece are on the rise. But really, how many investors had nightmares about Greece? Not many at all.

The real issue is that the outlook for the economy got overheated with far too many experts calling for +3-4% GDP growth. Next thing you know we get served up a round of soft data that brought these lofty expectations into question. Not surprisingly, we got a stock market correction with the most aggressive stocks taking beatings 2-3X larger than the norm.

Now as investors look over the investment landscape, they see that the fears of a recession are overblown. Most companies are reporting sales and profit trends in line with previous estimates. Plus, with interest rates plummeting, it makes stocks all the more attractive.

I am not saying that volatility is gone. Or that we have seen the last of this correction. It is just that more investors saw a good enough opportunity to load up on stocks now. And that's because the risk to the upside is better than the risk to the downside at this time.

[Luka!]

Back Above 12,000...Barely

Dear Subscribers,

Friday was another positive showing for the major market indices. But really, it only feels positive if your portfolio is chock full of defensive stocks. Unfortunately, if you have a more aggressive portfolio, then you are certainly not in a celebratory mood.

When I add it all up, I just don't believe we have hit bottom. That is because the defensive industry groups (health, staples, utilities, phone companies etc.) continue to lead the charge. Remember these same stocks have outperformed the last several weeks during the correction while stocks whose fortunes are more closely tied with economic expansion have seen haircuts of 10-20%+. When the tables are turned and the more aggressive stocks carry the torch, that is when we have found bottom and ready to head higher. Not there yet.

[Luka!]

Como disse ontem ele tinha preparado o mail antes do Empire State Index ...

*********

The Empire strikes back !!!


Dear Subscribers,

Here was my main point from yesterday after the big market rally on Tuesday:

"I would love to say that this correction that started May 1st is now over. Yet there is just too much time and too many potentially troublesome economic reports between now and July earnings season to feel safe."

It only took one day to be proven right. The main culprit was the Empire State Manufacturing Survey that went from bad to worse. The -7.8 reading is only the second negative reading in 2 years. The last time was a little blip in November before jumping back into positive territory. Is it the same this time around or does it portend ill for the future? Add into the mix Greek riots and, voila, we are back under Dow 12,000 once again.

The Philly Fed Survey and Jobless Claims are on the docket for Thursday. Poor showings there and we will be pressing towards the 200 day moving of Dow 11,700'ish very shortly. I personally think that will mark a bottom to this move unless we have more economic evidence that is truly negative and not just showing slower growth. Stay tuned!

[Luka!]

Esta foi escrita antes da publicaçao do Empire State Index (esperava-se a 12 e saiu a -7.8 o pior valor desde 2010 o que reafirma os receios sobre a economia US ... ) ... mas aqui vai :

******

Dear Subscribers,

Investors received 3 solid pieces of news leading to a hefty rebound back above Dow 12,000.

1) Best Buy earnings better than expected. Considered a strong bellwether for retail activity and general consumer sentiment.
2) Retail Sales report for May was pretty good ex-auto.
3) Producer Price Index still shows some modest whiffs of inflation, but nothing ominous.

I would love to say that this correction that started May 1st is now over. Yet there is just too much time and too many potentially troublesome economic reports between now and July earnings season to feel safe. My solution was to take profits on half of my short positions Tuesday. Now I am about 70% long the market. This better balances the current risks and rewards versus my previous 50% long posture. I would recommend the same for others...especially for those who ran for cover and have virtually no long exposure to the market.

[Luka!]

A macroeconomia esta ao "leme" dos mercados ... e como as perspectivas são pouco animadoras ...

Reports to watch this week

Dear Subscribers,

Monday was all quiet along the stock front as shares closed little changed. Meaning that we find ourselves under Dow 12,000 for a second straight session. The next move for the market will highly depend on these 6 significant economic reports that are coming out this week.

Tuesday = Producer Price Index (inflation still revving up?)

Wednesday = Consumer Price Index (ditto as PPI above). Empire State Mfg Survey (last month was a terrible disappointment. Getting worse or getting better?). Industrial Production (was the best part of our economic recovery. Any chinks in that armor?)

Thursday = Jobless Claims (under 400,000 would be a pleasant surprise). Philly Fed Survey (it was ugly last month like the Empire State survey. A bounce back would be welcome news).

If the bulk of these reports are weak or worse, then likely we will find stocks heading even lower. Hopefully the opposite is true leading to more optimism leading to stocks back above Dow 12,000. Stay tuned!

[Luka!]

6 Straight Weeks in the Red - 6/13/11þ
Dear Subscribers,

Friday's debacle made it 6 straight losing weeks for stocks. The last time that happened was in 2002 when everyone got their clocks cleaned by that nasty bear market. This slow grind lower in 2011 now has us back under Dow 12,000 for the first time since March.

The reason for the decline is simple. Recent soft economic data has too many people thinking the worst...recession. That "glass is completely empty" kind of thinking is way over done. You see there is a great deal of difference between soft data and scary data.
Soft data = still showing growth, but just not as impressive as before.
Scary data = expansion is over. Here comes the recession. Watch out below!

Remember on Thursday we got good news that exports were higher in April. That alone could add up to 0.5% increase in US GDP. And then on Friday I see another promising piece of news. That being a report that the Up Front sales for TV advertising saw very healthy year over year increases. What's so great about that Reity? (you ask). Advertising is a big expense for most firms. It's the first item to get cut when times are tough. And the last to get reinstated when things are going well again. So if the big firms are spending big dollars on advertising buys for the coming year, then it means that they are very confident that the economy is in good shape and they will get a good ROI on that ad spend.

So there still may be a bit more shakeout until the perma-bears are satisfied. But once more people appreciate that we do have positive GDP growth. And earnings are headed higher. And there is no other place to put your money given low interest rates...then stocks will start to rise again

[Luka!]

Sorry, hoje foi um pouco mais tarde q o habitual (jà os mercados US vao longe ...)... mas mais vale tarde que nunca:

abraço
luka


Dear Subscribers,

Attending the White House's First Personal Finance Online Summit on Wednesday was truly a thrilling event. It was good enough just being in a small room of 25 with direct access to top Administration officials like Austan Goolsbee, Elizabeth Warren and Gene Sperling. We enjoyed high level discussions on the economy, deficit reduction, rising gas prices, consumer protection, recently week jobs reports and more. But a surprise visit from President Obama himself made it incredibly memorable.

Get all the details of this vital event in my latest article: Mr. Reitmeister Goes to Washington

**********************

Mr. Reitmeister Goes to WashingtonBy: Steve Reitmeister
Share Yesterday I was in Washington DC attending the White House’s First Personal Finance Online Summit. The purpose was for the administration to parade out their lineup of economic All Stars to the investment websites that don’t normally have direct access. In fact, they left nothing to chance by hauling out President Obama for a surprise visit. More on that later.

You see, traditional press conferences are attended by the usual cast of objective (and tame) news sources like CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC, Associated Press, etc. However, the Obama White House is wising up to the fact that investment websites like Zacks, Morningstar, Investors.com, Motley Fool, Marketwatch, Forbes etc, have tremendous outreach to the investing public. And our subjective views and recommendations have great influence on over 50 million investors…many of whom are small business owners who help create much needed jobs for the US economy.

So this event was a first step towards increasing the access that companies like Zacks has to the leading economic and financial policy makers in Washington. And yes, the same is true in reverse as they want our help to get their message out to you.

Granted, we have freedom of speech in this country and we fully exercise it here at Zacks. Meaning that we do not have any intention of just echoing everything the administration says without further analysis. You can count on us to always provide you our truthful opinion of what is going on and how to profit from it in the future. With that said, let’s dig into the substance of the day’s event.

Insights from the Summit

My first insight is that DC is a hot place. Really hot. Standing on the sun hot. If I had truly comprehended that beforehand, then I would not have decided it was a good idea to walk 1.5 miles to the White House…with a fully loaded backpack and rolling suitcase…in a navy wool suit.

The locals understand these conditions. The men wear light suits…some are straight out of the Colonel Sanders collection. I will know better for the next time.

Now let’s get into the real meat of the matter. Instead of dumbing down the article by only sharing 3 or 4 of the main highlights, I have decided to share with you my full set of notes. Yes, people are supposed to have short attention spans on the web leading to the creation of shorter articles. And yes, many of my peers just shared their insights via Twitter (a 140 character post doesn’t really get the full flavor of the event, if you know what I mean). Simply, I think that there is no such thing as an article that is too long…only articles that are too boring.

So below are my full notes from the 4-hour event. As you will see, I am not an overly prodigious note taker. And don’t care to get every single thing written down. I just focus on the main points and amusing moments that stand out. (Anything you see in parenthesis means that I added it after the fact to enhance clarity for you, the reader). Lastly, if you want to skip ahead to the section where President Obama made a surprise appearance then scroll down 4 speakers from the top. Enjoy!

Austan Goolsbee, Chief Economist for the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board


Official Economic Forecast made in Feb 2011 said that they expected average of 9.3% unemployment and 146,000 monthly jobs added in 2011. And thus he made note that they are ahead of pace from predictions. Problem is that some of the previous month #s were so good that expectations got raised too high.
Do not expect “slow growth,” they expect better than that (meaning 3%+).
Drag in first quarter is considered transitory; spike in oil prices and Japanese supply chain issues. (Most other leading economists and market strategists agree with this assessment…but not all.)
One of their goals was to shift away from consumer and construction boom and boost cycles that beset the US in the past. They want the economy led by activity that is more broad-based and sustainable such as exports and fixed business investment. Goolsbee points out some of the gains that have been seen on this front. (True, but a lot of the export-driven growth is from printing too much money, which lowered the value of the dollar which made our exported goods cheaper by comparison…it also created inflation in other goods and services we buy. Maybe not the best trade-off for the average consumer).
They do have a sense of crisis, but not sense of panic. That allows them to make clear-headed decisions of what is best for the economy. Not just now, but for years to come. (They do perceive that others are panicking over the recent soft data points. And that is probably why they are rounding up the online investment community, to help quell some of that panic).
Government's responsibility is to stop of a free fall, but not to keep up growth. And so there is a transition now perhaps to allow the economy to handle things on their own. (Read: Don’t expect much more in the way of stimulus if #s are simply soft. We will only act if a downright recession and the financial markets seize up like they did in 2008).
Incredibly bright and funny guy who restrains himself (barely) from chopping off people’s heads for asking dumb questions.
His departure from the Administration was supposed to be in the fall. Unfortunately it was leaked early and thus he had to announce sooner…which was Tuesday morning.
When asked about “brinksmanship over the debt ceiling,” he said it’s foolish to wait til the last second. Don’t want anyone to lower rating or think we won’t pay back our debts. He believes things will be resolved on that before the last hour, which would be dangerous.
Aneesh Chopra, US Chief Technology Officer
Startup America Partnership - Tech's role in securing our economic growth and prosperity
Emphasis on healthcare, education, energy. Why? Because they are big parts of the economy that, as of yet, have not shown much productivity gains on their own. (I think the issue is that they are all inelastic goods. For those of you who haven’t been to econ class in awhile, that means that people will keep buying this stuff pretty much regardless of how much the price goes up. And so that generally leads to inefficiency in the industry…and yes, that makes it ripe for some massive improvements).
Promote market conditions to help start ups “eco-system." Example: Make it easier to get patents that allow start ups to get to market faster…and not burn through all their cash waiting for government approval.
This guy has an infectious personality. He is so energized by what he is saying that it is hard not to get excited right along with him.
Mentoring is big part of it. “Master Entrepreneurs” who mentor new entrepreneurs to help their businesses flourish. The benefit is that these small companies will help deliver new jobs.
Health focus
Transform Care Delivery System
Health IT enables value driven healthcare
Education- A learning system that works
Change from “seat time” in schools to “mastery”
Energy- unleash a clean energy revolution
Data.gov is great source of free data to entrepreneurs.
Heather Zichal, Deputy Asst to the President for Energy and Climate Change
China has overtaken the US in terms of consumption of energy.
Reduce net oil imports by 1/3rd by 2025. How? 3 pronged approach.
Expand domestic oil and gas consumption
Smarter consumption
Alternative energies
Had to stop in the middle of her presentation for President Obama’s appearance (description of that below.) Feel bad for her. He’s a hard act to follow.
Advanced batteries big part of the initiatives.
I asked about “How much does the Administration believe in the free market to help solve our energy dependence issues?” (Meaning that higher prices should be a natural trigger for innovators to create solutions). The answer was “kind of” but then switched conversation back to what they are focusing on which are not market driven.

PRESIDENT OBAMA WALKS IN THE ROOM

Everyone in the room lit up like a Christmas tree given that it was unexpected. And no matter your political stripes, when the President of the US appears in front of you…it’s DAMN impressive. One guy was even giggling like a little school girl. Truly gushing and laughing way too loud as if Justin Bieber sat in his lap. Truly embarrassed for that guy.
He stressed that the goal of this event is to increase clarity of administration’s policies to the public. And reaching out to our industry (investment and personal finance websites) is part of that.
Someone asked if the Administration will release oil from the strategic reserve in an attempt to lower gas prices. I shook my head so violently that the President turned in my direction. He said that they are not interested to do that now, but left his options open. He did emphasize that the reserve is there for real disasters like supply disruptions so the country can keep running. And would prefer not to use it just to alleviate a potentially temporary spike in gas prices. (I breathed a sigh of relief on that one.)
He noted that the best way to tackle the rise in energy prices is by focusing on lowering demand. Two best ways are creating alternative energy and promoting wiser energy consumption.
One of the questions posed to him was; What one piece of advice do you have for the average investor out there? He said “save more, spend less.” Emphasized not to redo the mistakes of the past. Everyone needs to stay within their means. And yes he agreed that the government should do that too.
He shook everyone's hand and I said to him "I’m a fellow Chicagoan," to which he replied, "Say hi to everyone back home for me."


(The devilishly handsome bald guy on the President's right is yours truly

Elizabeth Warren, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
http://www.consumerfinance.gov/ - launched early 2011
From the website: The central mission of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is to make markets for consumer financial products and services work for Americans—whether they are applying for a mortgage, choosing among credit cards, or using any number of other consumer financial products.
Level the playing field and increase transparency to help individual consumers who do not have as big of a voice as the big business that is trying to fool them.
Best quote of the day: "The financial crisis of 2008 was built 1 bad mortgage at a time."
Gene Sperling, Director of National Economic Council

A little late because of budget meetings with VP Biden "there are many, many budget meetings these days" he joked.
Part of bi-partisan deficit negotiations. There is "purpose and seriousness" on both sides. And people are focused on the policies and not political posturing (...at least in the closed door sessions before they get in front of the cameras.)
Both sides are serious about deficit reduction and "living within our means". He is confident that one way or the other they will make a serious down payment to lower the debt.
2nd best quote of the day" When you lighten the load of a plane, you do not throw out the engine." Meaning it's important that they foster growth while making spending cuts.
They do want to take on entitlements, but don't want to destroy the compact that was made for people who depend on it or will be depending on it shortly.
He has very strong disagreements with substance of GOP/Ryan's deficit reduction plan. Yet there is a mutual respect amongst "budget wonks" like himself and Ryan.
Joked about going to bed at night with all kinds of budget analysis, but gladly he is married to a TV writer who brings art and culture into his life to balance things out.
One possible drag on the economy is peoples' worry that the 2 political parties will not come to agreement on deficit reduction and how that would hamper the economy. (And that brings us back to the top of his remarks. Both sides are aware of the problem. Both sides want to solve it. But to be honest it doesn't sound like there is much common ground on specific policies that they want to remedy in the same way. Most likely they will make compromises. As in "I will support your budget cut if you support mine". Hopefully when you add up all the tits for tats we can take a serious bite out of this deficit).
Wrap Up

It was a great honor to meet with these officials first hand in a small intimate atmosphere. I believe that they are all people of great intelligence and conviction.

If that is true, then why does it seem that the government is so ineffective? That brings me back to something I learned a long time ago from the father of quality management, Dr. W. Edwards Deming. He said "the problem is never the people...it is the process." That certainly applies to our political system. It's a poor process whereby the 2 main parties spend too much time bludgeoning the other to gain the upper hand in the next election. And not enough time is taken to think about what is right for the people they are serving. When we solve that, then we can make real headway on the big issues that affect us all.

[Luka!]

'Outlook' positivo da Fed para o segundo semestre,
empresas com valorisaçoes atractivas e resultados solidos versus mercados ainda hesitantes ...
Quem ganharà ?
---

Dear Subscribers,

This is Sheraz Mian filling in for Steve Reitmeister while he's away attending the personal finance summit at the White House.

Even the relatively upbeat view of the economy from the Fed's 'Beige Book' failed to break the market's losing streak on Wednesday. Stocks have been on a persistent downtrend lately, with the major indexes in the red over the last five weeks.

Behind the market's glum mood are concerns about the economy’s near-term growth prospects. A slew of recent readings, from housing to manufacturing and labor market to consumer confidence, are showing a softening trend. But as the Fed chief stated the other day, this temporary soft patch will give way to much better growth in the second half of the year.

The market does not appear to be ready at this stage to buy into this second-half recovery theme without some evidence. And we will likely have to wait a few more weeks to get such evidence. As such, barring the occasional positive trading session here and there, I expect the market to remain in its current glum mood some more.

But the outlook beyond this temporary unsettling phase remains positive. Driving this positive outlook is a solid earnings picture, a still supportive Fed, and compelling valuations. Focused and disciplined investing will put you ahead of the pack in good times and bad.

[Luka!]

Visao do Zacks continua "downside"
... reorganizaçao do portfolio para apenas 50% "long"

Dear Subscribers,

Stocks were bouncing nicely higher on Tuesday. However, many investors took that as an opportunity to trim positions further resulting in another day in the red. Some say the reason was Bernanke's speech in the afternoon. That is hard to believe since his message was that recent economic weakness is temporary in nature and should pick up in the second half. (Note that most economists and market strategists agree with this notion.)

The parallels with last summer are strong. There too we had a soft patch in economic data. There too people were calling for another recession. There too stocks dropped much more than necessary. And there too investors who focused on the long term fundamentals were rewarded for not giving in to the fear.

Yes, I believe that there is probably a bit more downside to come this summer because of the overabundance of fear. And for that I have trimmed my portfolio to be only 50% long the market versus the 100% long it has been most of the past year. As that fear hits a fever pitch I plan on getting back to 100% long and enjoying a healthy bounce as investors once again focus on how the positive fundamentals outweigh the negatives.

(Tomorrow's email will be written by Sheraz Mian while I attend the White House's First Personal Finance Online Summit. After a tour of the White House we will be meeting with Tim Geithner, Austan Goolsbee and Gene Sperling to discuss the current state of the economy, deficit reduction and other important topics of the day. I look forward to sharing insights from this conference with you upon my return.)

[Luka!]

Luka, eu adoro estes comentários. Por favor vai colocando, sim? aposto que há mais gente a gostar.

Aqui vai Pata...
a publicidade do Zacks é:
Tactics that Work in Good Markets and Bad
e efectivamente tem resultado nao me posso queixar, tendo entrado short no momento do primeiro post... )


Dear Subscribers,

Last week marked the 5th straight week in the red for stocks. That is the longest weekly losing streak since 2004. And if the early losses from Monday extend through week's end that would be the worst showing since 2002.

Pulling back to the bigger picture each week has provided only a very modest decline. In that way the current pain is nowhere near as bad as previous corrections. This is a slow, steady bleed. Neither is fun. Just want to put the current decline in proper perspective.

Looking ahead this is a very quiet week on the planned economic news front. The only releases with potential market moving power are the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday and Jobless Claims on Thursday. Sure would be good to see the latter under 400K to give investors a positive data point to dispel some of the recent gloom.

[MatildeSerrano]

Luka, eu adoro estes comentários. Por favor vai colocando, sim? aposto que há mais gente a gostar.

Presumo que deve estar a falar ironicamente...

[Pata-Hari]

Luka, eu adoro estes comentários. Por favor vai colocando, sim? aposto que há mais gente a gostar.

[Luka!]

Enfim ... a visao baixista continua
mas aqui vai ...

Dear Subscribers,

The May Jobs report was stone cold terrible. Pre-market futures plummeted within seconds of its release. Then a half hour after the open we got a slightly better than expected ISM Non Manufacturing report that tempered some of that bad mojo...not by much.

Where to from here? I think the bias is still towards the downside given the soft economic reports of late coupled with the general foul mood of investors. (That foul mood seems to be an annual event every summer. This time is no different).

Dow 12,000 is the next resistance point. If that gets taken out then we will likely test the 200 day moving average at around 11,600. That is probably as much damage as we will see before July earnings come out which hopefully show everyone that Muddle Through growth is the current reality and not something more ominous. That should lead to a bounce from oversold conditions. Until then it is best to be a bit more defensive. Ultrashort ETF's are the quickest and easiest ways to buy that downside protection for your portfolio.

[Luka!]

Dear Subscribers,

Wednesday was a disaster. The preponderance of the economic evidence has been coming in under estimates and investors had to take action. And yes, dear reader, I put some shorts in my portfolio with the expectation of more downside in the near term. (Even though my long-term positive view is unchanged).

Thursday was calmer...at least on the surface. That is not surprising given how much the market fell the day before. Plus on Friday we have two heavy weight reports which will likely dictate the next moves for stocks.

First, we get the May Employment Situation (aka Government monthly jobs report). The ADP report on Wednesday already previewed weakness to come in the Governments number. Sometimes there is a lag and so it may not be there until next month's report.

Next up will be ISM Non-Manufacturing. The manufacturing version on Wednesday was terrible. That colluded with the ADP report to rip over 2% out of stock market valuations. However, as we all know manufacturing is not as important as services. So let's hope this more important aspect of our economy holds up. If not, and it succumbs to weakness like other recent economic reports, then the march lower will most likely continue.

[Luka!]

Dear Subscribers,

The market pendulum took a big swing back towards fear on Thursday. That's because more and more important economic reports are coming in weaker than expected. The latest being the ADP Employment Report and ISM Manufacturing Index. Each was a lot lower than estimates.

Yes, I am one of the guys who has said that "soft" reports like these are not a sign that the economy is going to contract. But certainly each new poor report increases the odds that the economy will have a lower growth rate than previously expected. And as we know from the earnings world, missing expectations is more important than the actual level of growth produced.

When you add it all up, I still expect Muddle Through growth for the US economy in the neighborhood of +2%. Just not the 3%+ growth rate that most other economists were projecting. So as investors adjust their expectations downward, with some even calling for a new recession, then stocks will most likely head lower in the near term. When the smoke clears and the Muddle Through growth scenario emerges, then likely stocks will rebound from oversold conditions and we will make new highs later this year or early next.

Strategy: Expect more pain in near term. Probably 5-10% correction from here. Hold on to your favorite stocks you like for the long haul. Sell off some of your more aggressive/speculative picks which will likely fall the most. Maybe even pick up some short ETF's to profit from downward pressure.