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[Seaman]

ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 42,000 Jobs in July
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By Timothy R. Homan

Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Companies in the U.S. added 42,000 workers to payrolls in July, according to figures from ADP Employer Services.

The ADP number was forecast to show a gain of 30,000 jobs, according to the median estimate of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Projections ranged from a decline of 15,000 to a gain of 85,000.

Over the previous six reports, ADP’s initial figures were closest to the Labor Department’s first estimate of private payrolls in February, when they overestimated the drop in jobs by 2,000. The estimate was least accurate in April, when it underestimated the employment gain by 199,000.

To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: August 4, 2010 08:16 EDT

[Seaman]

Esta última notícia da Bloomberg deve ter um forte significado para todos os mercados.

Esta é a notícia que todos os Bulls estavam à espera!

obless Claims in U.S. Decreased 11,000 Last Week to 457,000

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By Courtney Schlisserman

July 29 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment insurance fell to 457,000 last week, a figure that signals the labor market will be slow to improve even as the economy grows.

Initial jobless claims dropped by 11,000 in the week ended July 24 from a revised 468,000, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance rose, while those getting extended payments declined.

Limited job gains may restrain consumer spending, underscoring forecasts the recovery will cool in the second half. A slowing in the pace of economic growth as seen by companies such as International Paper Co. may dissuade businesses from adding to payrolls.

“It does feel like there’s been a little bit of a deceleration in the pace of hiring,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report. “It relates to a lot of fear and uncertainty around the sustainability of the recovery.”

Economists forecast claims would fall to 460,000, from a previously reported 464,000 for the prior week, according to the median of 42 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 445,000 to 500,000.

The four-week moving average of claims, a less-volatile measure, dropped to 452,500 last week, the lowest since May 8, from 457,000, today’s report showed.

The number of people continuing to collect unemployment benefits rose to 4.565 million in the week ended July 17, from 4.484 million the prior week. This measure was projected to rise to 4.5 million from a previously reported 4.487 million, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey

The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

Extended Benefits

Those who’ve used up traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments decreased by about 269,000 to 3.66 million in the week ended July 10.

President Barack Obama on July 22 signed into law a measure restoring unemployment benefits that were cut off. The bill provides retroactive aid to those whose checks were cut off when benefits expired June 2, while extending through November a program offering up to 99 weeks of assistance.

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, rose to 3.6 percent in the week ended July 17 from 3.5 percent in the prior week. Thirty-seven states and territories reported a decrease in claims during that period, while 16 reported an increase.

Claims Relationship

Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to fall as job growth -- measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report -- accelerates. That relationship has broken down in recent months as some companies continue to cut staff, while others expand, pointing to an uneven recovery.

“The economy is growing, no question about it,” John Faraci, chief executive officer at International Paper, said in an interview yesterday on Bloomberg Television. “We just see the rate of growth in the third quarter not quite as robust or as strong as the second quarter. Things are slowing but they’re still positive.”

United Technologies Corp. said July 26 it expects restructuring actions from the first half of the year to result in job cuts of about 2,400 hourly and salaried employees. The maker of carrier, Pratt & Whitney and Sikorsky products, had eliminated 900 jobs as of June 30 and is targeting most of the rest of the reductions for 2010 and 2011.

The Labor Department is scheduled to release its July payrolls report on Aug. 6. In June, private employers added fewer workers than economists had forecast, while overall payrolls fell, reflecting a drop in federal census workers.

Beige Book

The Federal Reserve, in its Beige Book business survey released yesterday, said employment has “improved gradually in several Districts,” though “modestly.” Some of the Fed’s 12 districts indicated an increase in demand for temporary workers.

Local governments may cut almost 500,000 jobs through next year to cope with sliding property taxes, a decline in state and federal aid and added need for social services, according to a report from the National League of Cities, the U.S. Conference of Mayors and National Association of Counties. The cuts would amount to 8.6 percent of their 2009 workforces, the group said July 27.

To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 29, 2010 08:30 EDT

[acintra]

Os pedidos de subsidio de desemprego, hoje, nos USA pode provocar uma tendência. Estamos numa zona onde os resultados das empresas impulsionam as bolsas mas as noticias da economia travam.

[Seaman]

MERCADOS
Resultados e subida da confiança na Zona Euro levam bolsas para máximos de 12 semanas
29 Julho 2010 | 12:00
Ana MargaridaLuís - aluis@negocios.pt
Os principais índices do Velho Continente estão hoje em alta impulsionados pela apresentação dos resultados da Volkswagen e da AstraZeneca, que ficaram acima das estimativas. Também a subida do índice de confiança dos consumidores da Zona Euro anima a Europa.
A confiança dos consumidores da Zona Euro melhorou substancialmente em Julho, atingindo mesmo o nível mais elevado dos últimos dois anos.

O índice que mede o sentimento dos consumidores perante a economia da área do euro subiu de 99 pontos em Junho, para os 101,3 em Julho, de acordo com dados revelados pelo Eurostat. Em Portugal, houve uma deterioração na confiança.

O índice de referência europeu Stoxx 600 atingiu máximos de 12 semanas e já sobe 0,43% para se fixar nos 258,31 pontos.

Mas de 60% das empresas cotadas no Stoxx 600 apresentaram resultados acima das estimativas dos analistas, desde 12 de Julho.

O índice grego lidera os ganhos da Europa e já sobe 1,60% para os 851,49 pontos. A subir está também o alemão DAX que regista um acréscimo de 0,54% para os 6.212,26 pontos, impulsionado pelos resultados da Volkswagen que apresenta um ganho de 2%.

A Volkswagen revelou hoje os lucros trimestrais mais elevados dos últimos dois anos sustentados pelo aumento da procura na China e nos Estados Unidos. A maior produtora automóvel da Europa anunciou hoje num comunicado que os lucros do segundo trimestre deste ano quadruplicaram e alcançaram os 1,25 mil milhões de euros. Este valor compara com um lucro de 283 milhões de euros em termos homólogos.

Em França o CAC 40 avança 0,50% para os 3.688,81 pontos, a valorizar estão os títulos da Loreal, da Lafrage e da Total. Por seu lado o AEX aprecia 0,16% fixando-se nos 335,58 pontos, beneficiado pelas acções do banco ING que estão a subir mais de 1% e da Shell.

O FTSE ganha 0,69% para os 5.356,14 pontos, a contribuir para esta tendência positiva da bolsa de Londres está sobretudo a AstraZeneca que já sobe 4%, após ter apresentado resultados para o segundo trimestre acima do esperado.

Em Espanha, o IBEX acompanha as suas congéneres europeias e avança 0,21% para os 1.1066,00 pontos, a beneficiar da subida da Repsol que hoje divulgou uma subida de 60% dos lucros no segundo trimestre.

[Seaman]

Europe Economic Confidence Rises as Exports Improve (Update2)

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By Simone Meier


July 29 (Bloomberg) -- European confidence in the economic outlook rose to the highest in more than two years in July and German unemployment declined for a 13th month as exports sustained a recovery in the region.

An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 euro nations increased to 101.3 from 99 in June, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That’s the highest since March 2008. The number of people out of work in Germany fell a seasonally adjusted 20,000 to 3.21 million, the lowest since November 2008, the Federal Labor Agency said.

Europe’s economic prospects, dented by the Greece-led budget crisis, are improving as companies from German bank Deutsche Bank AG to French luxury-goods maker LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA beat analysts’ profit estimates. Growth in Europe’s services and manufacturing industries accelerated in July and Peter Loescher, chief executive officer of Siemens AG, said today that he sees a “clear stabilization and a recovery of the global economy.”

“July’s sharper-than-expected increase in economic sentiment will further allay fears of a near-term double dip recession in the eurozone and may give fresh support to the euro,” said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group in Amsterdam. Still, the “recovery is bound to lose steam in the second half of the year” as global growth slows.

The euro was little changed after the confidence report. Earlier, it rose to the highest since governments announced a May 10 package to stop the sovereign debt crisis, climbing as much as 0.7 percent to $1.3085. The euro has gained 6.8 percent against the dollar this month.

German Jobless

Economists had forecast economic confidence to increase to 99.1 in July, according to the median of 26 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. In Germany, the adjusted jobless rate fell to 7.6 percent from 7.7 percent.

The commission’s index is based on a survey of 130,000 managers and 40,000 consumers conducted in the first two weeks of the month. A gauge of confidence among consumers rose to minus 14 in July from minus 17 in June, the commission said. Manufacturing sentiment increased to minus 4 from minus 6, while confidence among services companies advanced to 6 from 4.

The euro is still 9 percent weaker against the dollar this year, which has helped boost export growth by making European goods more competitive abroad. Siemens, Europe’s largest engineering company, said today that quarterly income rose 40 percent. Volkswagen AG, Europe’s largest carmaker, today reported its biggest quarterly profit in two years on rising orders.

Export Outlook

Still, exporters may struggle to maintain their sales growth if the world recovery loses momentum. China’s economic expansion slowed in the second quarter and industrial production cooled more than economists forecast in June. In the U.S., the world’s largest economy, confidence among consumers dropped in July to the lowest level in a year.

Today’s indicators “challenge the idea of a slowdown likely taking place in the second half but there’s not enough evidence to go against it,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “Until I get evidence of foreign demand picking up again, I can’t change that view.”

The euro-region economy may lag behind other industrialized economies this year, expanding just 1 percent, the International Monetary Fund said on July 8. In Japan, the economy may grow 2.4 percent in 2010 while U.S. gross domestic product is seen increasing 3.3 percent, the IMF forecast.

Take Off?

“I don’t feel that the economy is recovering very quickly,” said Charles Edelstenne, CEO at Dassault Aviation, a maker of corporate jets and fighter planes, today. “But I think all the same my experience from the past shows that, it’s always the moment when we least expect it that things take off.”

For now, executives are cranking up their assembly lines. Manufacturers’ capacity utilization rose to 77.4 percent in the third quarter from 75.5 percent in the previous three months, the commission said in today’s report. That’s the highest since the fourth quarter of 2008.

A gauge measuring euro-area manufacturers’ expectations in their export orders increased to minus 22 from minus 25 and an indicator of employment expectations also increased. A gauge of overall order books gained to minus 21 from minus 26.

In Italy, business sentiment also improved in July, the Isae Institute in Rome said today. German business confidence unexpectedly surged to a three-year high this month and the number of French jobseekers declined in June.

Beating Forecasts

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde today told Bloomberg Television in an interview from Paris that she sees a “serious pick-up” in global growth next year led by faster- growing economies including China and India.

While Europe’s economy has largely relied on exports, improving consumer optimism means households may become more willing to spend. Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe’s second-biggest airline, said today that it tripled its quarterly operating profit, topping analysts’ estimates, on a recovery for travel.

Bernard Arnault, chief executive officer of LVMH, the world’s largest maker of luxury goods, said on July 27 he’s “fairly confident” about the second half after profit surged 53 percent in the year’s first six months. Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest bank, on the same day reported second-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates.

Momentum

“The current economic momentum is likely to continue over the remainder of the year,” Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann said in a letter to shareholders on July 27. “Worries about industrialized countries sliding back into recession are subsiding.”

To shore up investor confidence in the financial system, finance chiefs have conducted stress tests on the European banks. The Committee of European Banking Supervisors said on July 23 that only seven of 91 EU banks failed the tests and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on July 26 called them “a very important transparency exercise.”

“The tests have for sure been enough to restore investor confidence,” ECB council member Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez said on July 26. “In Europe, we need to work more in other fields, not only in the field of financial institutions. We have to work more on the national level to reduce fiscal deficits.”

Governments from Spain to Ireland have already stepped up consolidation efforts to push down budget shortfalls. Greece, which triggered the crisis with the revelation that its deficit was more than four times the EU limit, has pledged to trim the shortfall to 8.1 percent of gross domestic product this year, from 13.6 percent last year.

Some executives remain skeptical about the strength of the economic recovery. Hans-Juergen Thaus, co-CEO of Krones AG, the world’s largest maker of bottling and packaging equipment, said on July 28 that “one cannot say that things are back to rosy” for the Neutraubling, Germany-based company.

“Too many uncertainties remain, such as growth in China, the stability of the euro, the development of financial markets and high government deficits,” Thaus said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simone Meier in Zurich at smeier@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 29, 2010 05:53 EDT

[Seaman]

Mercados
Tempestade está a acabar e o medo a desaparecer
29 Julho2010 | 00:01
André Veríssimo - averissimo@negocios.pt
Helena Garrido - Helenagarrido@negocios.pt
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Os mercados antecipam em alguns meses a retoma da economia europeia.
Nas últimas semanas, existem sinais de uma inversão no sentimento dos investidores, visível na menor percepção de risco em relação a países como Portugal e a sectores como a banca.

O apetite pelas acções está também a regressar. Falta o crédito voltar a circular na economia.

[Seaman]

Euro acentua ganhos com aumento na confiança dos consumidores
29 Julho2010 | 10:26
Paulo Moutinho - paulomoutinho@negocios.pt
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O aumento da confiança dos consumidores na economia da Zona Euro está a acentuar os ganhos da moeda única face à divisa dos EUA. Está a caminho dos 1,31 dólares.
A divisa única da Zona Euro acentuou a tendência positiva depois do Eurostat ter revelado que, em Julho, a confiança dos consumidores na economia da região atingiu o nível mais elevado dos últimos dois anos.

O euro, que já esteve a perder durante a sessão, e a negociar nos 1,2978 dólares, superou a fasquia dos 1,30 dólares e está agora a cotar nos 1,3064 dólares, apresentando uma valorização de 0,53%.

O índice que mede o sentimento dos consumidores perante a economia da área do euro subiu de 99 em Junho, para os 101,3 em Julho, de acordo com dados divulgados pelo Eurostat.

Este dado permitiu ao euro acentuar a tendência positiva verificada no arranque da sessão, estando a moeda única a aproximar-se cada vez mais da fasquia dos 1,31 dólares. No acumulado do ano, a divisa perde 8,7% face ao dólar.

[Seaman]

Viva!

vou juntando algumas notícias positivas para o médio longo prazo em defesa da honra dos Bulls...

MERCADOS
Desemprego cai há 13 meses na Alemanha
29 Julho 2010 | 11:01
HugoPaula - hugopaula@negocios.pt
O desemprego voltou a cair em Julho na Alemanha, com as cotadas do país a beneficiarem da retoma da economia mundial.
O número de desempregados caiu em 20 mil pessoas para se saldar num total de 3,21 milhões de sujeitos, segundo os dados da Agência de Emprego Federal, citados pela Bloomberg. O número total de desempregados caiu para um mínimo desde Novembro de 2008 e evolui tal como esperado pelos economistas.

A taxa de desemprego da maior economia da Europa salda-se assim em 7,6%, e é divulgado no mesmo dia em que cotadas como a Siemens e a Basf apresentaram resultados que ultrapassaram as estimativas dos analistas e depois de os dados de Julho da produção industrial e dos serviços também serem animadores.

“À medida que a economia mundial recupera e a procura cresce no estrangeiro, a indústria de exportações alemã está entre as que ganham”, disse o economista da câmara de comércio e indústria sedeada em Berlim, Stefan Hardege, à Bloomberg. “Vimos um desenvolvimento favorável no mercado de trabalho e assumimos que este venha a continuar”, disse.