Inversão de tendência para breve: sinal dado em Israel
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Bank of Israel Raises Key Rate, First Bank to Act (Update4)
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By Louis Meixler
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Israel raised the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the first central bank to lift rates since signs of an easing in the global recession started in the second quarter.
Governor Stanley Fischer increased the lending rate to 0.75 percent, the Jerusalem-based central bank said today in a statement, after keeping it at a record low since March. Two of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the increase, while the rest expected Fischer to hold the rate steady.
The decision “strikes a balance between the need to moderate inflation and the need to continue to support the recent recovery in economic activity,” the bank said. “Setting the interest rate at the low level of 0.75 percent continues to represent an expansionary monetary policy.”
Fischer has been backing away from economic stimulus measures since July 27, after the inflation rate slid into the target range for only one month before rebounding back out. The Israeli, French, German and Japanese economies all returned to growth in the second quarter, prompting Fischer to say on Aug. 21 at a meeting of bank governors at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that “the first signs of global growth have appeared.”
“You can read this as the first hike in the recovery cycle,” said Shahin Vallee, an emerging-markets currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Poland could be next.”
Inflation Concern
The shekel strengthened to 3.7932 per dollar as of 10:34 p.m. from 3.8110 just before the decision. The bank bought foreign currency today in an effort to weaken the shekel so as not to undermine exports. The bank “bought at least tens of millions of dollars today,” Arie Tal, chief analyst at Alumot- Sprint Investment House Ltd., said in a phone interview.
Israel posted inflation rates of 3.5 percent in July and 3.6 percent in June, above the 1 percent to 3 percent target range.
“We have a picture of economic recovery right now, which you see elsewhere in the world,” said Jonathan Katz, an economist at HSBC Securities who predicted the increase. At the same time, “Israel is one of the few countries in the world where inflation is running above target at three and half percent, and Fischer’s mandate is to try and bring it down between 1 and 3 percent.”
Fischer had cut the key interest rate to a record 0.5 percent and purchased foreign currency and government bonds to bolster an economy that contracted an annualized 3.2 percent in the first quarter.
Economic Growth
The steps taken by the central bank appear to be working. The economy expanded an annualized 1 percent in the second quarter and an index of leading economic indicators increased a preliminary 1.2 percent in July, the third consecutive gain.
Fischer announced on July 27 that he would halt bond purchases and on Aug. 10 that he would end set purchases of foreign currency. He said the bank would buy foreign currency in the event of “unusual movements” in the shekel.
The bank bought about $200 million in the foreign currency market on Aug. 18, according to Moshe Nir, a currency trader in Tel Aviv at Mercantile Discount Bank Ltd.
Higher interest rates and an end to purchases of foreign currency run the risk of strengthening the shekel. Forty-five percent of Israel’s gross domestic product comes from exports and the shekel has gained about 3 percent against the dollar since June 30, reducing company profits.
‘Dangerous’
“The decision by the governor to move ahead of the global monetary markets by raising interest rates is dangerous for the Israeli economy,” said Ori Yehudai, chief executive officer of Haifa-based Frutarom Industries Ltd., on behalf of the Manufacturers Association of Israel. The move “is liable to accelerate the strengthening of the shekel and hurt the ability of Israeli exporters to recover.”
Eyal Desheh, the chief financial officer of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., Israel’s largest publicly traded company, said on June 18 that the strong shekel may lead his company to rethink where it produces drugs.
To contact the reporter on this story: Louis Meixler at lmeixler@bloomberg.net
Bank of Israel Raises Key Rate, First Bank to Act (Update4)
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Louis Meixler
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Israel raised the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the first central bank to lift rates since signs of an easing in the global recession started in the second quarter.
Governor Stanley Fischer increased the lending rate to 0.75 percent, the Jerusalem-based central bank said today in a statement, after keeping it at a record low since March. Two of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the increase, while the rest expected Fischer to hold the rate steady.
The decision “strikes a balance between the need to moderate inflation and the need to continue to support the recent recovery in economic activity,” the bank said. “Setting the interest rate at the low level of 0.75 percent continues to represent an expansionary monetary policy.”
Fischer has been backing away from economic stimulus measures since July 27, after the inflation rate slid into the target range for only one month before rebounding back out. The Israeli, French, German and Japanese economies all returned to growth in the second quarter, prompting Fischer to say on Aug. 21 at a meeting of bank governors at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that “the first signs of global growth have appeared.”
“You can read this as the first hike in the recovery cycle,” said Shahin Vallee, an emerging-markets currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Poland could be next.”
Inflation Concern
The shekel strengthened to 3.7932 per dollar as of 10:34 p.m. from 3.8110 just before the decision. The bank bought foreign currency today in an effort to weaken the shekel so as not to undermine exports. The bank “bought at least tens of millions of dollars today,” Arie Tal, chief analyst at Alumot- Sprint Investment House Ltd., said in a phone interview.
Israel posted inflation rates of 3.5 percent in July and 3.6 percent in June, above the 1 percent to 3 percent target range.
“We have a picture of economic recovery right now, which you see elsewhere in the world,” said Jonathan Katz, an economist at HSBC Securities who predicted the increase. At the same time, “Israel is one of the few countries in the world where inflation is running above target at three and half percent, and Fischer’s mandate is to try and bring it down between 1 and 3 percent.”
Fischer had cut the key interest rate to a record 0.5 percent and purchased foreign currency and government bonds to bolster an economy that contracted an annualized 3.2 percent in the first quarter.
Economic Growth
The steps taken by the central bank appear to be working. The economy expanded an annualized 1 percent in the second quarter and an index of leading economic indicators increased a preliminary 1.2 percent in July, the third consecutive gain.
Fischer announced on July 27 that he would halt bond purchases and on Aug. 10 that he would end set purchases of foreign currency. He said the bank would buy foreign currency in the event of “unusual movements” in the shekel.
The bank bought about $200 million in the foreign currency market on Aug. 18, according to Moshe Nir, a currency trader in Tel Aviv at Mercantile Discount Bank Ltd.
Higher interest rates and an end to purchases of foreign currency run the risk of strengthening the shekel. Forty-five percent of Israel’s gross domestic product comes from exports and the shekel has gained about 3 percent against the dollar since June 30, reducing company profits.
‘Dangerous’
“The decision by the governor to move ahead of the global monetary markets by raising interest rates is dangerous for the Israeli economy,” said Ori Yehudai, chief executive officer of Haifa-based Frutarom Industries Ltd., on behalf of the Manufacturers Association of Israel. The move “is liable to accelerate the strengthening of the shekel and hurt the ability of Israeli exporters to recover.”
Eyal Desheh, the chief financial officer of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., Israel’s largest publicly traded company, said on June 18 that the strong shekel may lead his company to rethink where it produces drugs.
To contact the reporter on this story: Louis Meixler at lmeixler@bloomberg.net
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Inversão de tendência para breve: sinal dado em Israel
É com acontecimentos destes que vou passar a estar atento às inversões de tendência dos mercados. Acabou para mim a monitorização de dados às 13:30 e 15:00.
Com os mercados a testar os topos das cunhas ascendentes e com o vix a testar a base da cunha descendente, é bem possível que venha aí algo sério. Os israelitas já se aperceberam disso e instalou-se, desde já, o nervosismo naquele país.
O SP500 e companhia devem ser contagiados.
Vale a pena perder alguns minutos a observar esta obra prima.
Cumprimentos.
http://www.maisfutebol.iol.pt/jornal-do ... -1473.html
Com os mercados a testar os topos das cunhas ascendentes e com o vix a testar a base da cunha descendente, é bem possível que venha aí algo sério. Os israelitas já se aperceberam disso e instalou-se, desde já, o nervosismo naquele país.
O SP500 e companhia devem ser contagiados.
Vale a pena perder alguns minutos a observar esta obra prima.
Cumprimentos.
http://www.maisfutebol.iol.pt/jornal-do ... -1473.html
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