APB acusa Concorrência de lançar consulta enviesada e com "resultados predeterminados"

[razalas]

Marco,

Creio que isto é um forum onde posso manifestar a minha opinião. Até ver tenho essa noção do mesmo.

Agora, cada vez que alguem não tem a mesma opinião que a sua é porque lê mal?

[MarcoAntonio]

Cannot, eu não sou um fundamentalista, não me queiras agora transformar num. Estás a ler-me mal, tal como o razalas...

Eu não disse em lado nenhum que nunca existia nenhuma manipulação. Pelo contrário, disse que havia algumas.

O que eu defendi foi algo diferente do que vocês dois estão a ler. É só uma questão de voltarem a ler os meus posts. Lá porque o razalas é um fundamentalista, porque eu não concordo com ele não tenho de ser um fundamentalista do oposto...

[cannot]

Aqueles que têm o poder dos media nas mãos podem mudá-la ao seu belo prazer.

As receitas dos médias vêm da publicidade e das vendas. E não do "dono da mãozinha manipuladora". Quando não há
receitas para pagar as despesas o Jornal ou outro Média qualquer vai à falência e fecha portas...

Os média estão sujeitos às leis do mercado, à concorrência e à economia. São essas as preocupações de quem está a
gerir um Meio de Comunicação Social.

Desculpem intrometer-me mas acho que nenhum tem razão pelo seu extremismo de opiniões. Claro que os média têm que "fazer" dinheiro mas também é verdade que, mais ou menos obviamente, vão influenciando a opinião pública muitas vezes de forma pensada e seguindo um qualquer ideal.

Vejo um pelo lado da "teoria da conspiração" e outro pelo "fundamentalismo de mercado". A mim parece que não há razões para pensar que alguma dessas teorias seja verdade em termos absolutos. É obviamente uma mistura, quem pensa que os média podem (e o fazem) "manipular" à sua vontade tudo e sempre que o quiserem está completamente enganado. E quem pensa que as leis de mercado funcionam dessa forma tão óbvia e límpida está também muito desviado da realidade que existe num mundo cheio de influência como os média.

Dou só um exemplo, porque é o mais óbvio para nós aqui na Europa. O caso de Itália onde a manipulação noticiosa em certos canais é clara e tem favorecido os mesmo faz uns anos. Não me vou prolongar nisto porque não quero entrar por aí nem acho que se deva falar em manipulação de forma leviana, mas que os média podem subverter as leis de mercado e continuar a ganhar com isso é mais que claro.

[MarcoAntonio]

Está a defender alguem Marco?

Estou a defender a minha opinião. É evidente que para ti alguém defender uma opinião diferente da tua só pode ser por uma razão obscura...

Vamos ficar assim, eu com a noção que a podridão existe e o Marco com a noção que tudo é imaculado.

Não estás a ler lá muito atentamente. Tens uma mente pré-formatada e por isso não prestas atenção ao que eu escrevo. Eu não disse nem defendi em lado nenhum que não existia podridão (bem pelo contrário).

[razalas]

Está a defender alguem Marco?

Parece que sim.

Fico com a impressão que tudo funciona direitinho.

Ou é um pouco injénuo ou sabe demais.lol.

Não me leve a mal, mas não vai querer que eu faça aqui afirmações mais contundentes não será assim?

Prefiro que me chame Octávio Machado.

Vamos ficar assim, eu com a noção que a podridão existe e o Marco com a noção que tudo é imaculado.

Abraço

[MarcoAntonio]

Marcos António,

Eu até lhe podia dar uma dica acerca de como os média facturam, mas levantava aqui uma bronca do catano.

O que me está a dizer é o mesmo que alguns amigos me dizem relativamente às notícias desportivas por exemplo. É para facturar e tal...

Já um empresário meu amigo tambem explicou a coisa de outra maneira.

Não se se subentendeu.lol.

Claro, não vou agora aqui afirmar que há notícias pagas, não vai acreditar com certeza.

Nem vai acreditar que um qualquer rapazinho com uma camara de filmar a fazer o seu trabalho num qualquer jogo da bola não recebe por fazer um grande plano de uma garrafa a dizer ISOSTAR ou outra qualquer marca.lol. É só um exemplo.

Na economia, tendo alguns amigos tambem ligados à política e como tal dentro do assunto também não lhe vou aqui dizer quanto custa abater o A, B ou C.

Fico por aqui.

O que citei atrás é tudo ficção hã!?

Não vá o diabo tecê-las.

O típico discurso à Octávio Machado...

[creepy]

não sejamos anjinhose entendamos quem manda nos mius de comunicação...

a desconfiança é tal que a minha ideia é esta...

vou (quero) tar do lado certo do mercado...mas...

mas não confio em ninguem.. nem em resultados nem em independência das instituições... em nada... mas isso não me faz ficar contra ninguém...


eu acho sempre que o contolo de alguns se superioriza e desde acções concertadas de baixa de juros a notícias no bloomberg, á .... falência de bancos...

pois bem o que quero dizer é que apesar de bear porque os "meus" gráficos assim o dizem...não vou ser mais um cordeiro a opinar sobre nenhuma ideia...

a orquestra leva isto para onde quer... e deixo no ar..

sabemos mesmo se a crise existiu ou alguém tava interessado que isto caísse... quando eu via o bush a aparecer... havia um sorriso escondido que me dizia...

aquele filho da mâe ta bem short... o mercado ainda tentava... mas a meio do discurso o homem falava quase no fim do mundo ao ponto.... ou o inverso e era tão fraquinho nas convicções (de proposito?) que os mercados desmoronavam... então quando deixaram ir o banco...!!! meu deus!!!


a crise não terá sido maximizada!!!!???


Esta subida é verdadeira... é!!!! porque eu vejo ali uma expanded flat.. de resto é mais uma história muito bem contada!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

todas as opiniões sobre este assunto serao válidas... e não é por aparecer aí uns a se acharem mais intelectuais que outro que têm mais ou menos razão...

fica a ideia.... quem souber tudo ou faz parte do stablishmente ... ou é mais um soldadinho armado ao politicamente correcto...

mãos no gatilho que a vida continua...!!!!

abraços para todos os que têm razão... e neste caso são todos!!!!!

[razalas]

Marcos António,

Eu até lhe podia dar uma dica acerca de como os média facturam, mas levantava aqui uma bronca do catano.

O que me está a dizer é o mesmo que alguns amigos me dizem relativamente às notícias desportivas por exemplo. É para facturar e tal...

Já um empresário meu amigo tambem explicou a coisa de outra maneira.

Não se se subentendeu.lol.

Claro, não vou agora aqui afirmar que há notícias pagas, não vai acreditar com certeza.

Nem vai acreditar que um qualquer rapazinho com uma camara de filmar a fazer o seu trabalho num qualquer jogo da bola não recebe por fazer um grande plano de uma garrafa a dizer ISOSTAR ou outra qualquer marca.lol. É só um exemplo.

Na economia, tendo alguns amigos tambem ligados à política e como tal dentro do assunto também não lhe vou aqui dizer quanto custa abater o A, B ou C.

Fico por aqui.

O que citei atrás é tudo ficção hã!?

Não vá o diabo tecê-las.

[Carlos Ramalho]

Não tendo a ver especificamente com o tópico, mas parece que vamos ter outro dia no vermelho =/

[MarcoAntonio]

Neste momento estamos a ssistir ao colapsar de todo um sistema que há muito foi implantado nas sociedades ocidentais.

Os media neste momento estão a ser usados numa ultima tentativa de restaurar a confiança.

Portanto, quando ontem os média publicaram uma notícia relativa ao Marc Feber a sugerir que a Economia Americana ia
entrar com toda a certeza em hiper-inflacção, fazia parte da orquestração para restaurar a confiança...

Tá certo!

Como é evidente, o que tu ainda não entendeste é que os média têm como objectivo os seus próprios lucros. Portanto
imprimem aquilo que acham que vende.

Isso, vai-me desculpar mas é MANIPULAÇÃO pura.

Eu desculpo concerteza. Mas acho que tudo o que escreves é um non-sense completo...

É aquilo em que tu precisas de acreditar para te sentires bem contigo próprio, nada mais do que isso. Portanto, vais ler
e reparar apenas em certas notícias e dar-lhe uma interpretação a propósito.

Aqueles que têm o poder dos media nas mãos podem mudá-la ao seu belo prazer.

As receitas dos médias vêm da publicidade e das vendas. E não do "dono da mãozinha manipuladora". Quando não há
receitas para pagar as despesas o Jornal ou outro Média qualquer vai à falência e fecha portas...


Os média estão sujeitos às leis do mercado, à concorrência e à economia. São essas as preocupações de quem está a
gerir um Meio de Comunicação Social.

[razalas]

Parece não entender.

Manipulação é muito mais que tudo isso que falou.

Neste momento estamos a ssistir ao colapsar de todo um sistema que há muito foi implantado nas sociedades ocidentais.

Os media neste momento estão a ser usados numa ultima tentativa de restaurar a confiança.

Isso, vai-me desculpar mas é MANIPULAÇÃO pura.

Quanto a perdas, desde que comecei a analisar por este prisma têm sido mínimas.

Todos os investimentos que tenho feito são efectuados com base nos indicadores económicos que saem todos os dias nos EUA, nada mais. A AT, serve unica e exclusivamente para determinar o timing exacto para actuar, porque o resto não passa de um ajuste à realidade, pelo meio fica a tal MANIPULAÇÃO que serve unica e simplesmente para incrementar indices de confiança desmedida ou de falta dela.

Quando se fala da psicologia do investidor fala-se de quê?

Aqueles que têm o poder dos media nas mãos podem mudá-la ao seu belo prazer.

Mas atenção, a realidade mais cedo ou mais tarde vem ao de cima, essa não se tapa toda a vida.

[Onorio]

Eu acho estranho é que qnd os futuros estao sobre um suporte importante, alguem venha lançar um price target sobre uma acçao que tem um peso significativo no indice.

Manipulaçao ou nao, chamem-lhe o que quiserem...

O "reminescences of a stock operator" tem umas coisas interessantes acerca de manipulaçao do mercado.

[MarcoAntonio]

Basta pensar nas perdas colossais dos últimos tempos, nas falências, nas más performances de tantos grandes
Fundos por aí fora para perceber que essa noção conspirativa do mercado não faz sentido nenhum...

O objectivo dos média é "vender papel". Em fases de crise propalam a crise. Quando raia o sol, viram para o lado
oposto. Em cada momento tentam imprimir aquilo que vende, nada mais... porque, como toda e qualquer empresa
está sujeita às leis do mercado. Portanto é simples.

A manipulação, como uma constante nos mercados, é uma ilusão que vive dentro dos investidores quando não
conseguem nem querem entender a mecânica dos mercados e os seus humores. Antes querem encontrar uma
justificação qualquer para o inesperado, para os trades que correm mal, etc. E aí, a noção de que tudo é manipulado
e que existe uma mão maquiavélica a levar o mercado para onde "eles" querem assenta que nem uma luva.

Não passa de um mecanismo psicológico de defesa.


É claro que pontualmente existem manipulações. E alguns até são apanhados. Agora, imaginar que os movimentos
são todos orquestrados ou que sempre que não acontece o que esperamos então é porque houve manipulação, enfim...

[razalas]

A manipulação é para os dois lados. Quando desce e quando sobe.

Neste caso (deste ultimo grande rally) por acaso tem duvidas que Obama, Geithner entre outros através dos media incutiram uma confiança desmedida nos mercados?

Vamos esperar pelos resultados do proximo trimestre.

Vamos ver se o aumento desmedido da confiança dos consumidores se vai traduzir no aumento do consumo real.

Já agora, reparou nesta ultima subida se houve volume?

Acha normal que uma notícia de um indicador económico que saia abaixo das espectativas mas acima da semana anterior, seja dada com letras do tamanho do mundo como: "CONFIANÇA DOS EMPRESÁRIOS CONTINUA A AUMENTAR"

Quando o que devia sair era: "...MAS ABAIXO DO PREVISTO..."

É por acaso?

É o poder dos media meu caro, usado por quem pode.

É este capitalismo selvagem em que vivemos.

Por mim, depois de alguns anos a ser enganado optei por filtrar bem a informação. 80% das notícias contem a verdade nas entrelinhas. Mas só mesmo nas entrelinhas.

É um fartote de largar milho aos pombos na altura certa.

Abraço

[Ulisses Pereira]

Eu acho uma piada a isto... Quando o mercado se comporta no sentido o que prevemos, somos um espectáculo porque seguiu o rumo que previmos. Quando se comporta ao contrário do que previmos, foi manipulação.

Assim, de facto, somos sempre brilhantes...

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[EuroVerde]

Tal como tinha dito no outro tópico do SP500, o dia de hoje veio confirmar que o dia de ontem (26Maio)não passou de uma manipulação do mercado Americano. (para enganar os patos)
Estou bear a pensar num possível afundanço que na pior das hipoteses vai terminar por volta dos 816.

[creepy]

midas experimenta uma MA mais baixa no longo prazo...
maximo 50/52... gosto da 40...

essa de 70 ta fora do esquema mas percebi o cruzamento la em cima e o teste a mesma aquando da 2, além dos 1100 que é onde ela se encontra agora..... mas acho um número de semanas exagerado 70..

vê isso e falamos amanha..

abraço

[Midas]

Em relação às mais que falidas financeiras fica o índice, cuja canal está a ser quebrado e poderá acelerar o movimento descendente. Por esta altura já conseguiram ir buscar mais alguns particulares para reforçarem o capital e o movimento concluido.

Portanto deverá retomar o caminho da tendência principal com mais alguns incautos lá dentro.

BAC cujo aumento de capital foi feito a 10 dólares, alguns biliões, poderá ir aos 5 a médio prazo, só para falar desta.

[Midas]

Creepy colocaste o teu post ao mesmo tempo que eu. Novamente excelente a tua análise.

Abraço e até amanhã.

[Midas]

bp1511 os valores chave a curto prazo no S&P500 são os fortes 875 e os 930. Caso ultrapasse um destes valores com confirmação horária por exemplo pode haver um movimento explosivo.

elgenedy vou ler amanhã com mais calma o artigo. Hoje estive mesmo sem tempo. Obrigado por teres partilhado.

Fica um gráfico para o Ulisses não pensar que virei fundamental:) mas estamos a viver tempos históricos em termos económicos e para quem goste de economia como eu é um must os tempos que se vivem onde há uma guerra entre os economistas liberais e os tótós dos patrocinados pelos governos que não sabem o que andam a fazer nem a dizer.

Para o movimento bear ser anulado só um fecho acima dos 1100 para já, por isso ainda me vão aturar uns tempos

Relativamente ao que temos falado aqui no tópico as dificuldades já começam a ser públicas, o que significa que internamente anda tudo com as calças na mão e como ouvi hoje um gestor de fundos que gosto bastante os States ou salvam a moeda ou o país, e deverão optar pelo país. Portanto o dólar cada vez mais vai perder a hegemonia e vai acabar por ser deixado cair e perder a relevância. Os nossos filhos já vão conhecer outra realidade.

Ficam os textos das preocupações que só agora a CS vem dizer mas que aqui vem a ser dito há muito tempo...

Mortgage-Bond Yields Jump, Jeopardizing Fed’s Housing Effort
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By Jody Shenn

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage bonds rose for a fourth day, after exceeding for the first time yesterday their levels before the Federal Reserve announced it would expand purchases to drive down interest rates on new loans.

Yields on Washington-based Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30- year fixed-rate mortgage bonds climbed to 4.55 percent as of 3:15 p.m. in New York, the highest since Dec. 5 and up from 3.94 percent on May 20, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Rising mortgage-bond yields, driven higher in part by climbing Treasury rates, mean the Fed now “faces a challenge to its ability to sustain low mortgage rates,” according to Jeffrey Rosenberg at Bank of America Corp. The central bank, seeking to use lower home-loan rates to stem the housing slump and bolster consumers, said March 18 it would increase its planned purchases of so-called agency mortgage bonds by $750 billion, to as much as $1.25 trillion, and start buying government notes.

“Market participants may be asking themselves the same question as Scorpio in ‘Dirty Harry’: ‘Do I feel lucky?’ ” Rosenberg, the bank’s head of credit strategy research in New York, wrote in a report yesterday, referring to a character in the 1971 Clint Eastwood film who may be shot.

Crashing U.S. home prices have fueled the first global recession since World War II. The Fed, led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, may need to again adjust its mortgage-bond buying, after initially announcing the program in November, or boost its purchases of Treasuries, Rosenberg said. Home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas fell more than forecast in March, declining 18.7 percent from a year earlier, according to an S&P/Case Shiller index released yesterday.

‘Extension Pressures’

As rising Treasury yields sparked speculation that higher mortgage rates would extend the average lives of home-loan bonds by reducing the pace of refinancing, holders of the bonds, lenders and servicers began seeking to shorten the durations of holdings to make up for the effect, according to Mahesh Swaminathan, a mortgage-bond analyst in New York at Credit Suisse Group.

Their actions last week started causing interest-rate swap spreads to widen, as they sought to use those contracts to lessen their durations, “a canary in the coal mine pointing to the extension pressures building up,” Swaminathan said in a telephone interview.

Today, they drove mortgage and government bonds lower, with the Treasury market, which “started the process, now sort of being taken for a ride,” exacerbating the situation, he said. Yields on the Fannie Mae mortgage bonds climbed from 4.26 percent yesterday.

Good-Credit Applicants

A good-credit borrower who could have gotten a 4.625- percent 30-year mortgage on May 22 and a 4.875-percent loan yesterday will probably be offered a rate of 5.25 percent tomorrow, according to Grant Stern, the owner of Morningside Mortgage Corp., a brokerage in Miami Beach, Florida. Today, one lender he works with increased its pricing four times, he said.

“The last two months have been quite abnormal” as mortgage rates generally held in a range between 4.5 percent and 4.75 percent even while Treasury yields began climbing, he said.

The average rate on a typical 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.82 percent in the week ended May 21, according to a survey by McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac. Rates are down from 6.46 percent in late October, and up from a record low of 4.78 percent in the first and last weeks of April.

Yields on agency mortgage bonds are now guiding rates on almost all new U.S. home lending following the collapse of the non-agency market in 2007 and retreats by banks. The almost $5 trillion market includes securities guaranteed by government- controlled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and bonds of government- backed loans guaranteed by federal agency Ginnie Mae.

Effects of ‘Constraints’

“Capacity constraints” at lenders dealing with increased mortgage applications since December have caused the rates offered to borrowers to be higher in relationship to the bonds yields than in the past, according to Bank of America and Credit Suisse analysts. That suggests loan rates may not initially rise as much as yields do.

Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasuries hit 3.74 percent today, a six-month high, up from 2.54 percent on March 18, a low this month of 3.09 percent on May 14 and 3.55 percent yesterday.

Treasuries are slumping amid concern that record bond sales will overwhelm demand as U.S. bailout and stimulus spending stems deflation while adding to the nation’s debt burden, and as investors shift from the safe harbor of government notes amid climbing prices of other assets in a recession that some economists say is easing.

Yield Curve Steepens to Record as Debt Sales Surge (Update1)
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By Dakin Campbell

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The difference in yields between Treasury two- and 10-year notes widened to a record on concern surging sales of U.S. debt will overwhelm the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep borrowing costs low.

The so-called yield curve steepened to 2.75 percentage points, surpassing the previous record of 2.74 percentage points set on Aug. 13, 2003. Yields on 10-year notes have risen more than 100 basis points since Fed officials said in March they would buy up to $300 billion of U.S. debt over six months to drive consumer rates down and lift the economy from recession.

“The markets are starting to grapple with the issue of what happens when the Fed exits and the Treasury needs to continue at the same pace,” said David Greenlaw, the chief financial economist in New York at Morgan Stanley, one of the 16 primary dealers that trade with the Fed and are required to bid at government bond auctions.

Treasuries fell for a fourth day amid concern record supply will overwhelm investor demand as the economy begins to show signs of stability. The U.S. will likely sell $3.25 trillion of Treasuries in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 to fund bank bailouts, stimulus spending and a record budget deficit, according to primary dealer Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Ten-year notes have lost 10.3 percent this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes, while 30-year bonds have lost 27.5 percent. Two-year notes have gained 0.2 percent.

‘Convexity Selling’

Rising 10-year Treasury yields are pushing yields on mortgage bonds higher, prompting holders of the securities to sell government debt used as a hedge to protect portfolios against rising interest rates.

As mortgage rates rise, the expected average lives of mortgage bonds and mortgage-servicing contacts extend as potential refinancing drops, leaving holders with portfolios of longer-than-anticipated durations. Duration is a measure of bond price sensitivity to interest-rate change.

“The back-up is mostly related to convexity selling by mortgage investors,” said Gary Pollack, who helps oversee $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG’s Private Wealth Management unit in New York. “This will be a test for the Fed.”

The central bank has bought $130.534 billion in U.S. debt as part of a $300 billion effort to lower consumer borrowing costs. Officials have also embarked on a plan to buy as much as $1.25 trillion in so-called agency mortgage-backed securities

Balance Sheet

Government securities declined even as today’s auction of a record-tying $35 billion in five-year notes drew the most demand in three months from a group of investors that includes foreign central banks.

The Treasury plans to increase its debt sales after selling $1.9 trillion securities maturing in one year or less in the fourth quarter. Officials have boosted the sizes of all auctions and moved 10-and 30-year bond sales to monthly from eight and four times a year, respectively.

President Barack Obama has pushed the nation’s marketable debt to an unprecedented $6.36 trillion and raised estimates for the deficit this year to a record $1.84 trillion.

Inflation

The unprecedented government borrowing has created concern about a rise in consumer prices. Policy makers have expanded the Fed’s balance sheet to $2.2 trillion while excess reserves at U.S. banks have increased to $896.3 billion.

“Inflation is in the headlight of many investors,” wrote Andrew Brenner, co-head of structured products and emerging markets in New York at MF Global Inc., in a note to clients today. The firm is the world’s largest broker of exchange-traded futures. “A few are starting to think the Fed will raise rates sooner rather than later.”

Central bank official have held the federal funds rate, the overnight lending rate between banks, in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since December.

Ten-year breakeven rates, the difference between yields on 10-year inflation-indexed bonds and nominal Treasuries of the same maturity, touched 1.9405 percent today, the widest the spread has been since Sept. 23.

Slumping Treasury bond prices send stocks lower
Stocks tumble as 10-year note yield jumps on worries about borrowing costs; Dow falls 173

* Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
* On Wednesday May 27, 2009, 6:13 pm EDT

*
Buzz up!
* Print

NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market put its rally back on hold as investors worried about rising borrowing costs.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell almost 175 points Wednesday, erasing most of the previous day's rally as a jump in government bond yields fanned concerns that higher interest rates will sap strength from the economy.

A steep drop in the price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note pushed its yield up to 3.75 percent from 3.55 percent late Tuesday and to the highest level since November. Bond investors were selling on concerns that the huge amount of debt the government is selling to fund its bailout programs will ultimately keep Treasury prices down.

Along with increasing borrowing costs for the government, rising yields on Treasury debt could hamper an economic recovery since they are used as benchmarks for home mortgages and other kinds of loans. Higher mortgage rates could delay a recovery in the battered housing market.

"The equity market is getting worried about the 'green shoots.' I think the deer have nipped off a few and I think a few turned out to be weeds," said Hank Herrmann, chief executive of Waddell & Reed. Herrmann was referring to early positive signs in the economy that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has called "green shoots."

While Wall Street has been rallying for most of the past three months on those early signs of recovery, it has also been vulnerable to unexpected turns such as the jump in Treasury yields.

"Stocks are following bonds," said John Brady, senior vice president of global interest rate products at MF Global. "Will the economy grow and expand vigorously in the face of sustained higher interest rates?"

[creepy]

elgenedy,

excelente artigo...

pelo sp500

para já nada de novo... temos um topo e lower high dentro do circulo amarelo.. até ser quebrado... nada a dizer...

suporte dos 875 também não foi quebrado...
enquato se mantiver no range todas as possibilidades estão em aberto...

especulando:
bull:
faz um mínimo abaixo dos 875 e volta para dentro do range... nesse caso fez a d... e tende a acelarar para máximos...

fica pelos 880s e inverte para cima... fez um triagulo (distribuição) em abcde... e vai para máximos

bear: passa os 865/855 com volume

cumprimentos

[Elgenedy]

Bom dia a todos,

Encontrei este artigo de opinião pela Net. Penso que ainda não foi aqui colocado, apesar de ser do início do mês (o tema é "Sell in May and go away", embora aborde vários temas)

A mim pareceu-me um ponto de vista bastante interessante.

Aviso: É uma visão bastante bearish

Pessoalmente, achei muito curiosa a estatística de distribuição de retornos no S&P, em bear markets (com Abril destacadíssimo pela positiva).

Também gostei bastante da descrição detalhada dos lucros do Citi.

O artigo é bastante extenso, por isso optei por indicar o link em vez de o colocar aqui na íntegra.

Artigo -> Sell in May and go away

Cumprimentos,

./Elgenedy

PS. Obrigado pelos comentários ao meu post de ontem

[bp1511]

Gostei de ler os comentários, o pessoal esteve animado ontem à noite

Fica aqui um artigo que acabei de ler e achei interessante.

Quanto aos mercados como já foi apontado por alguns ilustres os 875 são valor chave, ontem esteve quase a quebrar, mas pelos vistos ainda não era a hora. A Morgan Stanley inteligentemente veio salvar com uma data de upgrades, inclusivamente à AAPL, dando um target nos 180 dólares, estando ela nos 125.

Vamos indo e vamos vendo.

Obama to Government Motors: "Let's Roll"
Mises Daily by Karen De Coster | Posted on 5/22/2009 12:00:00 AM

The last remnants of the American free-market system are experiencing a quick death by strangulation. Perhaps the most disturbing casualties of government intervention are General Motors and Chrysler, two disgraced automakers that have gone from private ownership to the public trough virtually overnight. The US government has effectively grabbed a financial stake in each company while attempting to control the reorganization process without any constitutional authority to commence such actions.

The takeovers, which have occurred at breakneck speed, are alarming. A defining characteristic of economic fascism is the control of private property and business through a government-business "partnership." This public-private alliance, while permitting private business ownership, is an arrangement that allows government to control and plan private industry. What we are experiencing from the schemers in Washington, DC is a planned capitalism, or soft fascism, that is being rolled out at an unprecedented pace.

One of the more disturbing actions on the part of the Washington establishment has been the blatant disregard for property and contract rights. First, consider the case of Chrysler. The government, while coming to the aid of a dying Chrysler, lobbed offers to its lenders, the bondholders. A group of dissident bondholders spurned the government's offer that would have given them a minuscule stake in the company while the UAW received a majority ownership position.

In response, the president denounced the bondholders, publicly proclaiming their obligation to sacrifice and referring to them as "vultures" because they insisted on maintaining their rights as senior creditors. Chrysler's bondholders, by law, are secured creditors, and they hold a senior ranking above unsecured creditors or shareholders in a bankruptcy or reorganization. Yet they were vilified and bullied for refusing to agree to a shoddy deal. Some of the holdout bondholders finally did buckle under; they dropped their legal challenge and agreed to the government's lowball offer, but only because they were strong-armed by Washington's bully tactics. Thomas Lauria, the attorney representing the group, stated that his clients weren't able to "withstand the enormous pressure and machinery of the US government." Thus the senior creditors were plundered while ownership was redistributed to the UAW, whose members are junior creditors. This makes a mockery of US securities law.

The bailout and ensuing appropriation of General Motors is no less tragic. The current restructuring plan calls for the US Treasury Department to have controlling interest in General Motors, which amounts to absolute nationalization. In GM's headquarters in Detroit there is a cluster of bureaucrats from the government's task force telling GM how to run its business. The task force, assembled by the White House, has the power to exercise significant control over product decisions. According to a GM news release, the Treasury Department will have the power to elect all of GM's directors and control the vote on matters brought before the stockholders. Additionally, the bondholders who have funded the company are being offered a paltry piece of the equity of the reorganized company — another major blow against the sanctity of contract.

Furthermore, the White House fired General Motors Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner. When the executive branch intervenes in a private business and ousts management, bailout or not, it is a staggering violation of the American ideal of free enterprise. This sets a precedent for unlimited government trampling over the private sector. On March 30th, Obama said, "Let me be clear. The United States government has no interest in running GM. We have no intention of running GM." If that's the case — and we know it's not — then why scoop up majority ownership?

The revolving door between Wall Street and the bowels of Washington are getting a workout. It's the guys from Wall Street who run the government and the guys from government who run Wall Street. Only the guys from Wall Street - especially Goldman Sachs - who have taken over the Treasury Department are now taking over control of the domestic auto industry. You know what happened when they tried to run their own company, Goldman Sachs. How in the heck did I miss the part in the Constitution where powers were granted to the Treasury Department and its hired hacks?

Another notable abomination is the use of taxpayer dollars, on the part of the political establishment, to grant preferential treatment to one group of constituents — the unions — at the expense of each company's creditors, the bondholders. Not only is this an illicit use of the executive office for political pandering, it's a deliberate redistribution of wealth. It's also a handsome payoff to the loyal unions, who have long been big supporters of the Democratic Party.

The GM and Chrysler takeovers are orchestrated political restructurings aimed at serving the larger interests of the US government. The apparatchiks on the Potomac have the authority to coordinate production in a manner that compliments their political and social agenda. The White House has not been shy about its ambitions for green policy and the future of American-made automobiles. This coup paves the way for big government to get its tentacles into an industry that will allow the feds to ram their socialist-totalitarian, green agenda down all of our throats.

Moreover, the Obama regime already announced that it is buying 17,600 green vehicles (hybrid sedans) from Detroit's Big Three by June 1, using $285 million from the $787 billion stimulus bill. Representative Sander Levin, a Democrat from Michigan, stated, "The federal government's purchase of thousands of hybrids and other fuel-efficient vehicles from the Big Three shows that our domestic auto industry will weather this current crisis and build the cars of the future." But certainly, it shows nothing. If the car companies were capable of building the cars of the future that consumers want to buy, no bailout would have been needed, and the government would not have to place an enormous, personal order for automobiles in order to keep the assembly lines moving and inventory lots turning over. The only thing the mega-purchase "shows" is Detroit's inability to sell its automobiles at bloated prices in the free market, thereby leaving the government to spend taxpayers' money on goods they refused to buy on their own.

In fact, giving the kiss of life to two dead horses, GM and Chrysler, illustrates the futility at work here, considering that both companies have just announced there will be a considerable number of dealership closings all over the country. Chrysler plans to close about 800 dealerships while GM will trim back 2,600 dealers by 2010. The fact that GM is cutting back its dealerships to the tune of 42 percent speaks volumes about its bloated, bubble-fueled predicament. The government has been pouring billions into each company's bailout bin in order to keep these inefficient, surplus dealerships around so that they could continue on their path of chasing invisible customers and not selling cars. The misallocation of resources has been staggering. Half-baked investment decisions, like these, are what we can expect from a politically anointed task force that will centrally plan the manufacture of automobiles.

As the Chrysler resuscitation continues and GM morphs into Government Motors, we can expect that the government will prepare to churn out its environmentally correct greenmobiles that the market has rejected over and over again. Freedom, choice, and capitalism will pay a dear price because a group of government bureaucrats, on the receiving end of political favors, will run a major sector of the US economy and foist a prescribed lifestyle upon American consumers.

The funeral bell is ringing a reminder of capitalism's mortality. And I won't dare touch on what happens when government-run automobile manufacturers perform like the post office or the DMV.

Olá Midas,

Os 875 é o valor chave para baixo e para cima?

[Midas]

Gostei de ler os comentários, o pessoal esteve animado ontem à noite

Fica aqui um artigo que acabei de ler e achei interessante.

Quanto aos mercados como já foi apontado por alguns ilustres os 875 são valor chave, ontem esteve quase a quebrar, mas pelos vistos ainda não era a hora. A Morgan Stanley inteligentemente veio salvar com uma data de upgrades, inclusivamente à AAPL, dando um target nos 180 dólares, estando ela nos 125.

Vamos indo e vamos vendo.

Obama to Government Motors: "Let's Roll"
Mises Daily by Karen De Coster | Posted on 5/22/2009 12:00:00 AM

The last remnants of the American free-market system are experiencing a quick death by strangulation. Perhaps the most disturbing casualties of government intervention are General Motors and Chrysler, two disgraced automakers that have gone from private ownership to the public trough virtually overnight. The US government has effectively grabbed a financial stake in each company while attempting to control the reorganization process without any constitutional authority to commence such actions.

The takeovers, which have occurred at breakneck speed, are alarming. A defining characteristic of economic fascism is the control of private property and business through a government-business "partnership." This public-private alliance, while permitting private business ownership, is an arrangement that allows government to control and plan private industry. What we are experiencing from the schemers in Washington, DC is a planned capitalism, or soft fascism, that is being rolled out at an unprecedented pace.

One of the more disturbing actions on the part of the Washington establishment has been the blatant disregard for property and contract rights. First, consider the case of Chrysler. The government, while coming to the aid of a dying Chrysler, lobbed offers to its lenders, the bondholders. A group of dissident bondholders spurned the government's offer that would have given them a minuscule stake in the company while the UAW received a majority ownership position.

In response, the president denounced the bondholders, publicly proclaiming their obligation to sacrifice and referring to them as "vultures" because they insisted on maintaining their rights as senior creditors. Chrysler's bondholders, by law, are secured creditors, and they hold a senior ranking above unsecured creditors or shareholders in a bankruptcy or reorganization. Yet they were vilified and bullied for refusing to agree to a shoddy deal. Some of the holdout bondholders finally did buckle under; they dropped their legal challenge and agreed to the government's lowball offer, but only because they were strong-armed by Washington's bully tactics. Thomas Lauria, the attorney representing the group, stated that his clients weren't able to "withstand the enormous pressure and machinery of the US government." Thus the senior creditors were plundered while ownership was redistributed to the UAW, whose members are junior creditors. This makes a mockery of US securities law.

The bailout and ensuing appropriation of General Motors is no less tragic. The current restructuring plan calls for the US Treasury Department to have controlling interest in General Motors, which amounts to absolute nationalization. In GM's headquarters in Detroit there is a cluster of bureaucrats from the government's task force telling GM how to run its business. The task force, assembled by the White House, has the power to exercise significant control over product decisions. According to a GM news release, the Treasury Department will have the power to elect all of GM's directors and control the vote on matters brought before the stockholders. Additionally, the bondholders who have funded the company are being offered a paltry piece of the equity of the reorganized company — another major blow against the sanctity of contract.

Furthermore, the White House fired General Motors Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner. When the executive branch intervenes in a private business and ousts management, bailout or not, it is a staggering violation of the American ideal of free enterprise. This sets a precedent for unlimited government trampling over the private sector. On March 30th, Obama said, "Let me be clear. The United States government has no interest in running GM. We have no intention of running GM." If that's the case — and we know it's not — then why scoop up majority ownership?

The revolving door between Wall Street and the bowels of Washington are getting a workout. It's the guys from Wall Street who run the government and the guys from government who run Wall Street. Only the guys from Wall Street - especially Goldman Sachs - who have taken over the Treasury Department are now taking over control of the domestic auto industry. You know what happened when they tried to run their own company, Goldman Sachs. How in the heck did I miss the part in the Constitution where powers were granted to the Treasury Department and its hired hacks?

Another notable abomination is the use of taxpayer dollars, on the part of the political establishment, to grant preferential treatment to one group of constituents — the unions — at the expense of each company's creditors, the bondholders. Not only is this an illicit use of the executive office for political pandering, it's a deliberate redistribution of wealth. It's also a handsome payoff to the loyal unions, who have long been big supporters of the Democratic Party.

The GM and Chrysler takeovers are orchestrated political restructurings aimed at serving the larger interests of the US government. The apparatchiks on the Potomac have the authority to coordinate production in a manner that compliments their political and social agenda. The White House has not been shy about its ambitions for green policy and the future of American-made automobiles. This coup paves the way for big government to get its tentacles into an industry that will allow the feds to ram their socialist-totalitarian, green agenda down all of our throats.

Moreover, the Obama regime already announced that it is buying 17,600 green vehicles (hybrid sedans) from Detroit's Big Three by June 1, using $285 million from the $787 billion stimulus bill. Representative Sander Levin, a Democrat from Michigan, stated, "The federal government's purchase of thousands of hybrids and other fuel-efficient vehicles from the Big Three shows that our domestic auto industry will weather this current crisis and build the cars of the future." But certainly, it shows nothing. If the car companies were capable of building the cars of the future that consumers want to buy, no bailout would have been needed, and the government would not have to place an enormous, personal order for automobiles in order to keep the assembly lines moving and inventory lots turning over. The only thing the mega-purchase "shows" is Detroit's inability to sell its automobiles at bloated prices in the free market, thereby leaving the government to spend taxpayers' money on goods they refused to buy on their own.

In fact, giving the kiss of life to two dead horses, GM and Chrysler, illustrates the futility at work here, considering that both companies have just announced there will be a considerable number of dealership closings all over the country. Chrysler plans to close about 800 dealerships while GM will trim back 2,600 dealers by 2010. The fact that GM is cutting back its dealerships to the tune of 42 percent speaks volumes about its bloated, bubble-fueled predicament. The government has been pouring billions into each company's bailout bin in order to keep these inefficient, surplus dealerships around so that they could continue on their path of chasing invisible customers and not selling cars. The misallocation of resources has been staggering. Half-baked investment decisions, like these, are what we can expect from a politically anointed task force that will centrally plan the manufacture of automobiles.

As the Chrysler resuscitation continues and GM morphs into Government Motors, we can expect that the government will prepare to churn out its environmentally correct greenmobiles that the market has rejected over and over again. Freedom, choice, and capitalism will pay a dear price because a group of government bureaucrats, on the receiving end of political favors, will run a major sector of the US economy and foist a prescribed lifestyle upon American consumers.

The funeral bell is ringing a reminder of capitalism's mortality. And I won't dare touch on what happens when government-run automobile manufacturers perform like the post office or the DMV.

[artista_]

StRuTcH, a cobra está bem vista, eu bem me parecia que aqui havia bicho!!!

abraços

artista