Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Ulisses Pereira]

Achei muito interessante este comentário do Rev Shark sobre a tendência de cada vez mais pessoas abraçarem a teoria da opinião contrária para negociarem, com os risco inerentes a isso. Gosto sobretudo desta frase: "Contrarian thinking has a strong appeal to many folks. It makes us feel good to distinguish ourselves from the unthinking, unwashed masses."

Um abraço,
Ulisses


"Contrarians Can Be Fools, Too"

By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
6/27/2006 12:04 PM EDT

"As we await the FOMC interest rate decision on Thursday, one thing I'm getting very tired of hearing is that "everyone is thinking this or that is going to happen therefore it is unlikely to happen." The bearish argument right now is that "everyone" expects a rally on the Fed interest rate decision and therefore it won't happen.


A lot of market participants seem very anxious to embrace this glib, knee-jerk, contrarian thinking. I hear it constantly and I always wonder how people formulate their conclusions about the prevailing state of sentiment. In many cases, the logic seems to be little more than "I read a lot of negative stuff on a blog" or a Yahoo board, "therefore everyone is thinking this way."

If "everyone" were really anticipating a rally based on the Fed, wouldn't they be rushing to buy now in order to be in front of all the other buyers who will soon emerge? If "everyone" truly is thinking the same way, isn't it a fait acompli, a done deal? If everyone truly believes something will happen, they will be acting on it. Does this market action look like everyone is anticipating a big rally on Thursday?

Contrarian thinking has a strong appeal to many folks. It makes us feel good to distinguish ourselves from the unthinking, unwashed masses. We like to believe that our superior intellect will produce successful results, but how can our thinking be superior if it's the same as the majority thinking? If we are simply doing what everyone else does, there is no way to distinguish ourselves.

The reality is that most of the time the majority is right about the market. It fact, that is the inherent nature of the market. If everyone is positive about the future of the market and has the money to spend, the market is going to go up until they run out of money.

Of course, it is never that easy, because we seldom know how much untapped buying power there is out there and, more importantly, the attitude of investors is seldom clear. Investors are a complex bunch, and despite shorthand labels like bear and bull, most people have a much more complicated view of the market. Our attitudes about the market are seldom black or white. We may be positive in one time frame and negative in another, or we might have no real strong opinions, or maybe our attitudes will change if this or that event occurs.

When you hear the argument that the market is likely to do this or that because "everyone" is thinking the opposite, make sure you consider the logic long and hard. Like most things in the market, it isn't that simple. "

(in www.realmoney.com)