David Nichols - Fractal Market Report for Maiy 1, 2006
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. São 400%!!
Boas. Por acaso também tinha uma certa ideia que os mercados podíam subir depois do fecho semanal do SPX (mas o Nichols é que sabe né 
), já para não falar da vela mensal que fechou em alta ficando a abertura em gap na zona de 2/3 do range entre o máximo absoluto e os mínimos de 2003. Só acho estranho por exemplo o Nasdaq 100 ter fechado no limite do sell off. Está muito tremido. Já o Dow Jones parece preparar-se para quebrar a forte resistência nos 11400 pontos e seguir até aos máximos absolutos ali tão perto.
Mas realmente não há como esperar por um sinal mais fiel para entrar. Contudo, penso que a semana de fecho de opções de Maio deve ser terrivel. Devemos estar mesmo no final do bull market e talvez os próximos dias sejam de euforia.
Abraço e BN.
), já para não falar da vela mensal que fechou em alta ficando a abertura em gap na zona de 2/3 do range entre o máximo absoluto e os mínimos de 2003. Só acho estranho por exemplo o Nasdaq 100 ter fechado no limite do sell off. Está muito tremido. Já o Dow Jones parece preparar-se para quebrar a forte resistência nos 11400 pontos e seguir até aos máximos absolutos ali tão perto.
Mas realmente não há como esperar por um sinal mais fiel para entrar. Contudo, penso que a semana de fecho de opções de Maio deve ser terrivel. Devemos estar mesmo no final do bull market e talvez os próximos dias sejam de euforia.
Abraço e BN.
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Já agora publico a análise de hoje do Jeff Cooper que é muito ,muito semelhante à do Nichols, embora o Jeff já tivesse feito esta alteração de estado de espírito de curto prazo (de bear para bull) desde Quinta-feira.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
"Were Skids Greased for Commodities?"
By Jeff Cooper
Street Insight Contributor
5/1/2006 6:56 AM EDT
"I wrote last week that Wednesday's trade was important and that Thursday's and Friday's price action would likely carve out an important week.
My thinking was that the commodities/basic materials stocks were, as Jim Cramer put it on Friday, "victimized by intense profit-taking." Many of the names in the oil stocks such as Valero Energy (VLO:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) and Tesoro (TSO:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) had key reversal days on Tuesday and followed through dramatically on Wednesday.
It has been hard to find two piggyback Distribution Days in commodity-related stocks for well over a month -- never mind two piggyback large-range down days. Moreover, the parabolic arc in many of these names looks busted -- at least for the near term, with many of them leaving nasty-looking tails on their weekly bars -- not withstanding solid bounces in these groups and in a lot of these names on Friday.
So, the $64 million question is whether last week's action signals a consolidation/pullback in the basic materials and highflying energy stocks. Will they bounce right back as they have so many times before or are the commodities headed for the commode?
The excuse for last week's selloff in the commodity names is twofold. Let me see if I have this straight:
President Hu visits President Bush in Washington, and subsequently Bush attempts to alleviate spurting oil prices by announcing a temporary halt to buying for the strategic petroleum reserve and an easing-up on the mandated change in additives. Then on Thursday, China raised its interest rates. Isn't it interesting that the commodity stocks were getting shellacked in advance of these events? Just askin'.
Be that as it may, oil tried to bounce back on Friday while gold was up a big $20.
Meanwhile, the profit-taking that I saw in these areas last week that I thought would spread to the overall market stopped dead in its tracks on Thursday, as the S&P 500 turned on a dime when it tagged its 50-day moving average, which coincided with the key 1295 pivot of the year.
In recapturing 1300 on Thursday and rallying all the way back to 1315, the S&P hammered out a bullish-looking Large Range Outside Day up. Although the index on Friday attempted to cobble a continuation day onto Thursday's reversal, it made a first-hour spike high and eased back for the rest of the session.
Nevertheless, we got a second weekly close right on the 1309/1310 square, which as you know has offered beaucoup resistance on more than several occasions. Although I remain cautious for the second half of the year, the S&P appears poised to break out and to spike to 1345, and possibly as high as 1380. Why do I think that the S&P is poised for that kind of possibility? Well, this second weekly close above the important 1309/1310 square after a dip to the 50-day moving average has the look of a Second Mouse Move to me. At the same time, the S&P appears well poised to capture this well-proven resistance at 1310.
Although my work supports that the time may be short for the bulls, as into the end of May, 1345 appears to be a doable target, while 1380 seems to be a stretch to accomplish this before the end of May. So the levels to watch are 1345 and then 1380, while the last week in May sets up as an important turning point. At the same time, it is important to mention that the potential for a bullish spike higher is damaged on any break of 1295 from this point on. Any break of 1295 now (and particularly a break of 1280) puts the defense on the field and demands caution."
(in www.realmoney.com)
Um abraço,
Ulisses
"Were Skids Greased for Commodities?"
By Jeff Cooper
Street Insight Contributor
5/1/2006 6:56 AM EDT
"I wrote last week that Wednesday's trade was important and that Thursday's and Friday's price action would likely carve out an important week.
My thinking was that the commodities/basic materials stocks were, as Jim Cramer put it on Friday, "victimized by intense profit-taking." Many of the names in the oil stocks such as Valero Energy (VLO:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) and Tesoro (TSO:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) had key reversal days on Tuesday and followed through dramatically on Wednesday.
It has been hard to find two piggyback Distribution Days in commodity-related stocks for well over a month -- never mind two piggyback large-range down days. Moreover, the parabolic arc in many of these names looks busted -- at least for the near term, with many of them leaving nasty-looking tails on their weekly bars -- not withstanding solid bounces in these groups and in a lot of these names on Friday.
So, the $64 million question is whether last week's action signals a consolidation/pullback in the basic materials and highflying energy stocks. Will they bounce right back as they have so many times before or are the commodities headed for the commode?
The excuse for last week's selloff in the commodity names is twofold. Let me see if I have this straight:
President Hu visits President Bush in Washington, and subsequently Bush attempts to alleviate spurting oil prices by announcing a temporary halt to buying for the strategic petroleum reserve and an easing-up on the mandated change in additives. Then on Thursday, China raised its interest rates. Isn't it interesting that the commodity stocks were getting shellacked in advance of these events? Just askin'.
Be that as it may, oil tried to bounce back on Friday while gold was up a big $20.
Meanwhile, the profit-taking that I saw in these areas last week that I thought would spread to the overall market stopped dead in its tracks on Thursday, as the S&P 500 turned on a dime when it tagged its 50-day moving average, which coincided with the key 1295 pivot of the year.
In recapturing 1300 on Thursday and rallying all the way back to 1315, the S&P hammered out a bullish-looking Large Range Outside Day up. Although the index on Friday attempted to cobble a continuation day onto Thursday's reversal, it made a first-hour spike high and eased back for the rest of the session.
Nevertheless, we got a second weekly close right on the 1309/1310 square, which as you know has offered beaucoup resistance on more than several occasions. Although I remain cautious for the second half of the year, the S&P appears poised to break out and to spike to 1345, and possibly as high as 1380. Why do I think that the S&P is poised for that kind of possibility? Well, this second weekly close above the important 1309/1310 square after a dip to the 50-day moving average has the look of a Second Mouse Move to me. At the same time, the S&P appears well poised to capture this well-proven resistance at 1310.
Although my work supports that the time may be short for the bulls, as into the end of May, 1345 appears to be a doable target, while 1380 seems to be a stretch to accomplish this before the end of May. So the levels to watch are 1345 and then 1380, while the last week in May sets up as an important turning point. At the same time, it is important to mention that the potential for a bullish spike higher is damaged on any break of 1295 from this point on. Any break of 1295 now (and particularly a break of 1280) puts the defense on the field and demands caution."
(in www.realmoney.com)
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David Nichols - Fractal Market Report for Maiy 1, 2006
Boas pessoal,
Um pouco mais tarde, mas cá está ela.
1 ab
Um pouco mais tarde, mas cá está ela.
1 ab
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01052006-DavidNichols.PDF- (111.35 KiB) Transferido 242 Vezes
O que é um cínico? É aquele que sabe o preço de tudo, mas que não sabe o valor de nada.
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