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China May Take Further Steps to Cool Investment Boom (Update5)
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- China, which unexpectedly raised its benchmark lending rate yesterday, may take additional steps to cool investment in factories and property in the world's fastest- growing major economy.
People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan may raise borrowing costs again this year, four of seven economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said. The bank may also order lenders to set aside more money as reserves while policy makers restrict land use for factories and real estate development, some economists said.
China, the world's biggest consumer of steel and the second- largest user of oil, is trying to curtail an investment boom that the World Bank says increases the risk of a sudden slowdown in the economy. At the same time, the government doesn't want to choke consumer spending, which it's counting on to sustain growth as China curbs its reliance on exports.
``The People's Bank of China will follow the decision with additional moves,'' said David Simmonds, global head of currency research at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in London. He predicts it will seek to discourage lending growth by increasing the ratio of deposits that commercial banks must set aside.
The central bank raised its one-year lending rate by 0.27 percentage point to 5.85 percent in its first increase since October 2004. The bank also asked the nation's banks to restrict lending.
Zhou, 58, today called the increase a ``moderate adjustment'' and said it was aimed at preventing the economy overheating. He was speaking at a central bank financial forum in Beijing.
Commodities, Stocks Fall
The central bank left its one-year deposit rate unchanged at 2.25 percent, seeking to encourage consumer spending and avoid gains in its currency, the yuan. Higher deposit rates would attract funds from overseas, increasing demand for yuan.
Commodity prices tumbled on concern that slower growth in China would curtail demand. Copper, which has doubled in the past year, dropped as much as 3.1 percent. Zinc fell as much as 7.3 percent, its biggest decline since February. Oil, which has climbed 38 percent in the past 12 months, fell 1.3 percent.
Stocks fell in China, Japan, Australia and South Korea. BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, slipped 2.2 percent in Sydney and Rio Tinto Group, the third-biggest miner, fell 1.9 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.6 percent as of 9:32 a.m. local time.
The yield on the 4.44 percent local currency bond due in February 2015 rose 3 basis points to 3.10 percent. The yield jumped 30 basis points, or 0.3 percentage point, since March 20.
U.S. stocks rebounded after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke suggested the central bank may soon pause in its cycle of interest-rate increases. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 4.31, or 0.3 percent, to 1309.72 after falling as much as 0.8 percent.
Reserve Requirement
The Chinese central bank wasn't expected to raise its benchmark rate because inflation is subdued, said Stephen Green, a Shanghai-based economist at Standard Chartered Bank. Consumer prices climbed 0.8 percent last month from a year earlier. The central bank predicts inflation of 2 percent for the full year.
Instead, economists expected China's central bank to increase the ratio of deposits it requires banks to lodge with it, currently 7.5 percent. Raising that ratio would discourage bank lending, said Simmonds.
``We had anticipated that the reserve requirement would be the first type of move as opposed to interest rates,'' said Kathleen Stephansen, director of global economics at Credit Suisse Holdings. ``So in that respect, it was somewhat surprising.''
New yuan lending in China jumped 70 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, fueling almost 30 percent growth in investment in factories, roads, mines and real estate. Lending is growing ``too fast,'' the central bank said yesterday.
Administrative Restrictions
The lending and deposit rates are government-set guidelines for the nation's commercial banks. At present, banks may charge borrowers 10 percent below the benchmarks or any higher rates at their discretion.
Premier Wen Jiabao may also use measures that directly target investment, such as limits to lending on certain projects and restrictions on land use, economists said.
The government cracked down on lending in April 2004 after growth in fixed-asset investment topped 50 percent in February that year. Investment growth fell by half by February 2005, only to rebound later in the year as restrictions were eased.
Fixed-asset investment in urban areas surged almost 30 percent in this year's first quarter. Money supply growth has beaten the central bank's 16 percent target for 10 months.
Accelerating lending and investment increase the danger of a sudden slowdown in China, Homi Kharas, chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific at the World Bank, said on April 20. China's economic growth has averaged 10 percent over the past three years.
`Knock-on Effect'
``There is the risk the investment boom in China turns to bust and that would have a knock-on effect on the rest of the world,'' said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. ``Higher rates may take off some of the froth from commodities markets, which have benefited from the investment boom.''
Hu and Premier Wen face the task of curbing credit and investment growth without hurting consumer spending. In a five- year economic plan announced in October, China's government set as its key goal increasing consumption while moving away from dependence on exports and investment.
Stronger consumer spending would also increase the nation's demand for imports, reducing its trade surplus. That would help alleviate the global imbalances that were the subject of a meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers in Washington last weekend.
``I do see some encouragement that the Chinese are at least talking about the issues,'' Bernanke told U.S. lawmakers today. The Chinese ``are discussing some approaches to increase domestic consumption and reduce the amount of savings they have put into the world capital markets.''
Yuan Gains
U.S. lawmakers argue the Chinese yuan is kept artificially weak to give exporters an advantage, contributing to the nation's $201.6 billion trade deficit with China last year. China's currency reserves of $875.1 billion are the world's largest.
Still, yesterday's interest-rate decision indicates the central bank won't use currency appreciation as a way of cooling its economy, said Qing Wang, a strategist at Bank of America.
``In this light, we believe the pace of appreciation will likely be rather moderate in the coming weeks,'' Qing said in a note to clients.
The yuan has gained 1.2 percent against the dollar since a 2.1 percent revaluation on July 21 last year, when China abandoned a decade-old peg. The yuan is a denomination of China's currency, the renminbi.
Chinese President Hu Jintao, visiting U.S. President George W. Bush last week, said China will ``continue to make adjustments'' to its currency system, stopping short of promising faster appreciation.
Bad Loans
Yesterday's decision will lift profit margins at Chinese banks, which are saddled with 1.31 trillion yuan of bad loans, by increasing the difference between the rates at which they can lend and borrow. Chinese authorities are concerned that banks are ill- equipped to handle a more flexible currency, economists say.
Shares of China Merchants Bank Co. and other publicly traded banks surged today. Merchants Bank shares gained as much as 4.9 percent, and shares of China Minsheng Banking Corp. rose as much as 4.8 percent.
Zhou, who holds a doctorate in economic engineering from Beijing's Tsinghua University and speaks fluent English, has been credited by economists including Jonathan Anderson at UBS AG with helping create a more technically competent central bank.
The rate increase came earlier in China's economic cycle than the previous one, suggesting the central bank is taking a more active part in guiding the economy, Hong Liang, an economist Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in note to clients.
``Such an early and decisive policy adjustment will indeed strengthen the credibility of the central bank, and give investors more confidence,'' she wrote.
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- China, which unexpectedly raised its benchmark lending rate yesterday, may take additional steps to cool investment in factories and property in the world's fastest- growing major economy.
People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan may raise borrowing costs again this year, four of seven economists surveyed by Bloomberg News said. The bank may also order lenders to set aside more money as reserves while policy makers restrict land use for factories and real estate development, some economists said.
China, the world's biggest consumer of steel and the second- largest user of oil, is trying to curtail an investment boom that the World Bank says increases the risk of a sudden slowdown in the economy. At the same time, the government doesn't want to choke consumer spending, which it's counting on to sustain growth as China curbs its reliance on exports.
``The People's Bank of China will follow the decision with additional moves,'' said David Simmonds, global head of currency research at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in London. He predicts it will seek to discourage lending growth by increasing the ratio of deposits that commercial banks must set aside.
The central bank raised its one-year lending rate by 0.27 percentage point to 5.85 percent in its first increase since October 2004. The bank also asked the nation's banks to restrict lending.
Zhou, 58, today called the increase a ``moderate adjustment'' and said it was aimed at preventing the economy overheating. He was speaking at a central bank financial forum in Beijing.
Commodities, Stocks Fall
The central bank left its one-year deposit rate unchanged at 2.25 percent, seeking to encourage consumer spending and avoid gains in its currency, the yuan. Higher deposit rates would attract funds from overseas, increasing demand for yuan.
Commodity prices tumbled on concern that slower growth in China would curtail demand. Copper, which has doubled in the past year, dropped as much as 3.1 percent. Zinc fell as much as 7.3 percent, its biggest decline since February. Oil, which has climbed 38 percent in the past 12 months, fell 1.3 percent.
Stocks fell in China, Japan, Australia and South Korea. BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, slipped 2.2 percent in Sydney and Rio Tinto Group, the third-biggest miner, fell 1.9 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.6 percent as of 9:32 a.m. local time.
The yield on the 4.44 percent local currency bond due in February 2015 rose 3 basis points to 3.10 percent. The yield jumped 30 basis points, or 0.3 percentage point, since March 20.
U.S. stocks rebounded after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke suggested the central bank may soon pause in its cycle of interest-rate increases. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 4.31, or 0.3 percent, to 1309.72 after falling as much as 0.8 percent.
Reserve Requirement
The Chinese central bank wasn't expected to raise its benchmark rate because inflation is subdued, said Stephen Green, a Shanghai-based economist at Standard Chartered Bank. Consumer prices climbed 0.8 percent last month from a year earlier. The central bank predicts inflation of 2 percent for the full year.
Instead, economists expected China's central bank to increase the ratio of deposits it requires banks to lodge with it, currently 7.5 percent. Raising that ratio would discourage bank lending, said Simmonds.
``We had anticipated that the reserve requirement would be the first type of move as opposed to interest rates,'' said Kathleen Stephansen, director of global economics at Credit Suisse Holdings. ``So in that respect, it was somewhat surprising.''
New yuan lending in China jumped 70 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, fueling almost 30 percent growth in investment in factories, roads, mines and real estate. Lending is growing ``too fast,'' the central bank said yesterday.
Administrative Restrictions
The lending and deposit rates are government-set guidelines for the nation's commercial banks. At present, banks may charge borrowers 10 percent below the benchmarks or any higher rates at their discretion.
Premier Wen Jiabao may also use measures that directly target investment, such as limits to lending on certain projects and restrictions on land use, economists said.
The government cracked down on lending in April 2004 after growth in fixed-asset investment topped 50 percent in February that year. Investment growth fell by half by February 2005, only to rebound later in the year as restrictions were eased.
Fixed-asset investment in urban areas surged almost 30 percent in this year's first quarter. Money supply growth has beaten the central bank's 16 percent target for 10 months.
Accelerating lending and investment increase the danger of a sudden slowdown in China, Homi Kharas, chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific at the World Bank, said on April 20. China's economic growth has averaged 10 percent over the past three years.
`Knock-on Effect'
``There is the risk the investment boom in China turns to bust and that would have a knock-on effect on the rest of the world,'' said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. ``Higher rates may take off some of the froth from commodities markets, which have benefited from the investment boom.''
Hu and Premier Wen face the task of curbing credit and investment growth without hurting consumer spending. In a five- year economic plan announced in October, China's government set as its key goal increasing consumption while moving away from dependence on exports and investment.
Stronger consumer spending would also increase the nation's demand for imports, reducing its trade surplus. That would help alleviate the global imbalances that were the subject of a meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers in Washington last weekend.
``I do see some encouragement that the Chinese are at least talking about the issues,'' Bernanke told U.S. lawmakers today. The Chinese ``are discussing some approaches to increase domestic consumption and reduce the amount of savings they have put into the world capital markets.''
Yuan Gains
U.S. lawmakers argue the Chinese yuan is kept artificially weak to give exporters an advantage, contributing to the nation's $201.6 billion trade deficit with China last year. China's currency reserves of $875.1 billion are the world's largest.
Still, yesterday's interest-rate decision indicates the central bank won't use currency appreciation as a way of cooling its economy, said Qing Wang, a strategist at Bank of America.
``In this light, we believe the pace of appreciation will likely be rather moderate in the coming weeks,'' Qing said in a note to clients.
The yuan has gained 1.2 percent against the dollar since a 2.1 percent revaluation on July 21 last year, when China abandoned a decade-old peg. The yuan is a denomination of China's currency, the renminbi.
Chinese President Hu Jintao, visiting U.S. President George W. Bush last week, said China will ``continue to make adjustments'' to its currency system, stopping short of promising faster appreciation.
Bad Loans
Yesterday's decision will lift profit margins at Chinese banks, which are saddled with 1.31 trillion yuan of bad loans, by increasing the difference between the rates at which they can lend and borrow. Chinese authorities are concerned that banks are ill- equipped to handle a more flexible currency, economists say.
Shares of China Merchants Bank Co. and other publicly traded banks surged today. Merchants Bank shares gained as much as 4.9 percent, and shares of China Minsheng Banking Corp. rose as much as 4.8 percent.
Zhou, who holds a doctorate in economic engineering from Beijing's Tsinghua University and speaks fluent English, has been credited by economists including Jonathan Anderson at UBS AG with helping create a more technically competent central bank.
The rate increase came earlier in China's economic cycle than the previous one, suggesting the central bank is taking a more active part in guiding the economy, Hong Liang, an economist Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in note to clients.
``Such an early and decisive policy adjustment will indeed strengthen the credibility of the central bank, and give investors more confidence,'' she wrote.
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- Registado: 8/2/2006 17:32
Deixo aqui um gráfico interessante com a evolução do crude com a inflação ajustada...
Um abraço,
Ulisses
Um abraço,
Ulisses
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- Mensagens: 31013
- Registado: 29/10/2002 4:04
- Localização: Aveiro
'Peak oil' enters mainstream debate
By Adam Porter
In Perpignan, France
Is global oil production reaching a peak?
A few years ago only a handful of geologists and academics were considering such a possibility.
But now it appears even governments are taking a serious look at the subject.
The question is occupying more and more minds around the world.
It could happen soon.
A French government report on the global oil industry forecasts a possible peak in world production as early as 2013.
Don't mention it
The report 'The Oil Industry 2004' takes a long look at future production and supply issues.
But perhaps what is most interesting about this Economics, Industry & Finance Ministry report, is that it actually mentions a possible production plateau at all.
Even one year ago it was unheard of to find the subject mentioned amongst government ministries or financial institutions.
Now banks such as Goldman Sachs, Caisse D'Epargne/Ixis, Simmons International and the Bank of Montreal have all broached the subject.
"They are being forced to by circumstances," says Professor Richard Heinberg, author of 'peak oil' books Power Down and The Party's Over.
"They have relied on optimistic data and rosy outlooks that are being proven to be incorrect."
Nevertheless, some analysts disagree with the notion of any peak in oil production, also known as 'Hubberts curve', after the geologist M King Hubbert who first argued the case.
Deborah White, senior energy analyst at Societe Generale in Paris, says that "we have heard these arguments about 'peak oil' since the idea of Hubert's curve came into being.
"We don't endorse the idea at all."
'Peak oil' mentioned
And yet, the French report, perhaps the most open government dossier yet, questions the viability of long term oil production.
The report's second chapter 'Global Exploration and Production' runs a series of differing scenarios based on current forecasts.
The scenarios differ according to projected demand increases, from 0% to 3% per annum, and possible new field discoveries, between zero and fifty billion barrels a year.
At a rate of 3% increase in demand per year and annual finds of 10 billion barrels, the ministry report states 2013 as "the time of maximum production or 'peak oil'".
That would mean the world's oil consumption would reach its highest point at around 97 million barrels per day (mbpd).
Forced to react
It is also very unusual to find a government report using the wording 'peak oil'. This is a phrase often used to describe the theory of a global oil production plateau, after which production would begin to decline.
Chris Sanders spoke at the recent Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference and is director of international finance consultants Sanders Research.
He believes 'peak oil' is major threat to modern economies.
"There is only so long politicians can ignore a geological problem, and it is a geological one," he says.
"Governments have had a great chance to take the lead on this situation, but they have not taken it. Now they are being forced to react.
"Why? Because it is very probable that we are nearing 'peak oil'."
The French report uses the phrase, in English, and repeats it on no less than four occasions.
Outdated data
The best case scenario the report lays out is rather far fetched, with a 0% increase in world consumption, at only 79mbpd, with annual finds of 50 billion barrels of new deposits per year.
That makes 'peak oil' arrive in 2125.
Unfortunately the report's figures are already outdated. The world consumed 84.7 mbpd in the first quarter of 2005.
International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts - traditionally regarded as conservative by the markets - put demand at around 86.1 mbpd for the fourth quarter of this year alone.
Its figures put demand growing at 2.2% in the first quarter of 2005.
This means average consumption for 2005 would come out at 84.3 mbpd. Plus, in the past 30 years, new discoveries of oil have averaged about 14 billion barrels per year, with recent discovery rates well below that.
Despite not endorsing a production peak, Ms White is also factoring in demand growth "of around 1.5mbpd over the next five years, which will mean a total demand of around 91.8mbpd in 2010".
Different definitions
The French report also echoes a fundamental problem at the heart of the oil business, namely data transparency.
Without accurate audited data, discovery forecasts, forward pricing and reserve calculations become a matter of debate rather than science.
This year alone the International Monetary Fund, the G7 and IEA have all called on Opec countries and Russia to open their fields to independent scrutiny.
"The definitions of oil reserves are different in many countries," the report observes.
"The capacities of sustainable production by Opec countries are very difficult to estimate. It is impossible to know production levels without waiting, at best, several months."
The report also goes on to look at the daunting levels of cost needed.
Firstly to extract current reserves but also to explore for new deposits.
"Somewhere in the region of $900bn will be needed by 2013 alone to develop [existing] reserves," it says.
"This massive investment will double as one will need to add exploration costs to this figure as future production from 2013 to 2030 will depend on it which means that to be successful, around $250bn a year will need to be spent."
"Ruinously high oil prices are making governments look at the subject," says Professor Heinberg.
"For example, when they are faced with whole industries like the airlines going bankrupt, it forces them to react, but they may be too late."
Suburban blight
Ms White takes the problem from a different perspective.
Rather than a costly search for more oil, she recommends conserving its use.
"We are at the wrong stage of the economic cycle for a recession that would cut demand," she says.
"What is very important is conservation, especially in transport. Raising taxes on fuel, introducing toll roads and bridges into major cities for example, but also stopping the spreading of suburbs ever further from city centres.
"Controlling suburban blight is one way to slow oil consumption until we are a society no longer dependent on oil."
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/b ... 077802.stm
Published: 2005/06/10 04:29:32 GMT
By Adam Porter
In Perpignan, France
Is global oil production reaching a peak?
A few years ago only a handful of geologists and academics were considering such a possibility.
But now it appears even governments are taking a serious look at the subject.
The question is occupying more and more minds around the world.
It could happen soon.
A French government report on the global oil industry forecasts a possible peak in world production as early as 2013.
Don't mention it
The report 'The Oil Industry 2004' takes a long look at future production and supply issues.
But perhaps what is most interesting about this Economics, Industry & Finance Ministry report, is that it actually mentions a possible production plateau at all.
Even one year ago it was unheard of to find the subject mentioned amongst government ministries or financial institutions.
Now banks such as Goldman Sachs, Caisse D'Epargne/Ixis, Simmons International and the Bank of Montreal have all broached the subject.
"They are being forced to by circumstances," says Professor Richard Heinberg, author of 'peak oil' books Power Down and The Party's Over.
"They have relied on optimistic data and rosy outlooks that are being proven to be incorrect."
Nevertheless, some analysts disagree with the notion of any peak in oil production, also known as 'Hubberts curve', after the geologist M King Hubbert who first argued the case.
Deborah White, senior energy analyst at Societe Generale in Paris, says that "we have heard these arguments about 'peak oil' since the idea of Hubert's curve came into being.
"We don't endorse the idea at all."
'Peak oil' mentioned
And yet, the French report, perhaps the most open government dossier yet, questions the viability of long term oil production.
The report's second chapter 'Global Exploration and Production' runs a series of differing scenarios based on current forecasts.
The scenarios differ according to projected demand increases, from 0% to 3% per annum, and possible new field discoveries, between zero and fifty billion barrels a year.
At a rate of 3% increase in demand per year and annual finds of 10 billion barrels, the ministry report states 2013 as "the time of maximum production or 'peak oil'".
That would mean the world's oil consumption would reach its highest point at around 97 million barrels per day (mbpd).
Forced to react
It is also very unusual to find a government report using the wording 'peak oil'. This is a phrase often used to describe the theory of a global oil production plateau, after which production would begin to decline.
Chris Sanders spoke at the recent Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference and is director of international finance consultants Sanders Research.
He believes 'peak oil' is major threat to modern economies.
"There is only so long politicians can ignore a geological problem, and it is a geological one," he says.
"Governments have had a great chance to take the lead on this situation, but they have not taken it. Now they are being forced to react.
"Why? Because it is very probable that we are nearing 'peak oil'."
The French report uses the phrase, in English, and repeats it on no less than four occasions.
Outdated data
The best case scenario the report lays out is rather far fetched, with a 0% increase in world consumption, at only 79mbpd, with annual finds of 50 billion barrels of new deposits per year.
That makes 'peak oil' arrive in 2125.
Unfortunately the report's figures are already outdated. The world consumed 84.7 mbpd in the first quarter of 2005.
International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts - traditionally regarded as conservative by the markets - put demand at around 86.1 mbpd for the fourth quarter of this year alone.
Its figures put demand growing at 2.2% in the first quarter of 2005.
This means average consumption for 2005 would come out at 84.3 mbpd. Plus, in the past 30 years, new discoveries of oil have averaged about 14 billion barrels per year, with recent discovery rates well below that.
Despite not endorsing a production peak, Ms White is also factoring in demand growth "of around 1.5mbpd over the next five years, which will mean a total demand of around 91.8mbpd in 2010".
Different definitions
The French report also echoes a fundamental problem at the heart of the oil business, namely data transparency.
Without accurate audited data, discovery forecasts, forward pricing and reserve calculations become a matter of debate rather than science.
This year alone the International Monetary Fund, the G7 and IEA have all called on Opec countries and Russia to open their fields to independent scrutiny.
"The definitions of oil reserves are different in many countries," the report observes.
"The capacities of sustainable production by Opec countries are very difficult to estimate. It is impossible to know production levels without waiting, at best, several months."
The report also goes on to look at the daunting levels of cost needed.
Firstly to extract current reserves but also to explore for new deposits.
"Somewhere in the region of $900bn will be needed by 2013 alone to develop [existing] reserves," it says.
"This massive investment will double as one will need to add exploration costs to this figure as future production from 2013 to 2030 will depend on it which means that to be successful, around $250bn a year will need to be spent."
"Ruinously high oil prices are making governments look at the subject," says Professor Heinberg.
"For example, when they are faced with whole industries like the airlines going bankrupt, it forces them to react, but they may be too late."
Suburban blight
Ms White takes the problem from a different perspective.
Rather than a costly search for more oil, she recommends conserving its use.
"We are at the wrong stage of the economic cycle for a recession that would cut demand," she says.
"What is very important is conservation, especially in transport. Raising taxes on fuel, introducing toll roads and bridges into major cities for example, but also stopping the spreading of suburbs ever further from city centres.
"Controlling suburban blight is one way to slow oil consumption until we are a society no longer dependent on oil."
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/b ... 077802.stm
Published: 2005/06/10 04:29:32 GMT
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- Mensagens: 3299
- Registado: 8/2/2006 17:32
Boas. No crude, fechei ontem mesmo as posições longas. Era o meu target mental e penso que muito dificilmente vai continuar a subir com a força que temos visto, mesmo com um fecho semanal muito forte. A partir de agora penso que vou andar mais virado para sul, mas com muita cautela.
Abraço e BN.
Abraço e BN.
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- Mensagens: 1227
- Registado: 28/1/2005 0:38
- Localização: Massamá
Oil Prices Top $75 a Barrel for the first time.
The front-month contract for crude futures closed above $75 ( $75.17 ) per barrel on Friday the highest closing level for a front-month contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, scoring a gain of more than 6% for the week, the continuation of fears over Iran and Nigerian supplies. 
Pessoal com este movimento já não vai faltar muito para a gasolina passar os 1.50 euros aqui em Portugal.
E dizem os magnatas que vamos ter um crescimento de 1.2% até me dá vontade de
AC
Pessoal com este movimento já não vai faltar muito para a gasolina passar os 1.50 euros aqui em Portugal.
E dizem os magnatas que vamos ter um crescimento de 1.2% até me dá vontade de
AC
Mais vale um pássaro na mão que dois a voar
www.ac-investor.blogspot.com - Now with trade Alerts for US stocks
www.ac-investor.blogspot.com - Now with trade Alerts for US stocks
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- Mensagens: 1045
- Registado: 12/7/2004 10:54
- Localização: V.N.GAIA
quando faz a conversão no downloader tem lá um separador que diz opcoes. Nesse local pode escolher a opçao, "criar novos tikers". Quando fizer essa conversão ele vai-lhe criar novos tikers para todos os qie ainda não existem.
não tenho aqui o downloader por isso não posso ajudar mais. Aconselho a colocar um novo post com o título "ajudem-me no metastock".
não tenho aqui o downloader por isso não posso ajudar mais. Aconselho a colocar um novo post com o título "ajudem-me no metastock".
Um abraço
JN
JN
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- Mensagens: 770
- Registado: 11/11/2002 17:41
- Localização: Estoril
Estou longo (a longo prazo)no ouro e na prata, não vendi nada mas claro que fiquei de sobreaviso.
Quanto à questao do erro no meta. Penso que o downloader converte qualquer ficheiro csv.
Eu não uso o meta, mas uso um programa baratuxo que faz o dounload das cotações do yahoo e converte para formato meta. Nunca tive problemas. Isso deve ser da configuração dos ficheiros no downloader. Tem de nos fornecer mais dados para se perceber onde esta o problema.
Quanto à questao do erro no meta. Penso que o downloader converte qualquer ficheiro csv.
Eu não uso o meta, mas uso um programa baratuxo que faz o dounload das cotações do yahoo e converte para formato meta. Nunca tive problemas. Isso deve ser da configuração dos ficheiros no downloader. Tem de nos fornecer mais dados para se perceber onde esta o problema.
Um abraço
JN
JN
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- Mensagens: 770
- Registado: 11/11/2002 17:41
- Localização: Estoril
Goldenman Escreveu:BOM dia
Onde é que consegues visualizar esses graficos em real time?
E já agora nesse site é possivel sacar os historicos destes comodities???
Obrigado
Goldenman
vocês conseguem ver os gráfico em real time a partir deste tópico ?
ou copiei o código html do Jack of Trade (http://stocknavigator.ru/jack/) e no meu pc funciona bem
procura os históricos aqui:
http://www.futuresource.com/index.jsp
http://finance.yahoo.com/
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- Mensagens: 3299
- Registado: 8/2/2006 17:32
- Mensagens: 5
- Registado: 13/4/2006 21:40
- Mensagens: 5
- Registado: 13/4/2006 21:40
April 18, 2006, 12:22AM
Price-gain trifecta: oil, gold and silver
Fear is the driving force behind increases, with Iran's nuclear designs leading the way
By LYNN J. COOK
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle
OIL, gold and silver all broke price records in Monday trading, and the trifecta of highs have one common denominator — fear.
One fear is that the world's supply of oil could be sharply cut by political problems in Iran, which the U.S. government has said is committed to becoming a nuclear power despite U.S. and European objections, or Nigeria, where militants angry with the government have already successfully sabotaged oil fields and export terminals. The follow-on fear is that high energy prices will drive up the price of consumer goods while pushing the value of Wall Street-traded stocks down.
Many buyers of the so-called hard currencies, including gold and silver, put their money into metals because they believe that in periods of uncertainty, those investments will be worth more than stocks and bonds.
"There are all sorts of theories out there about how these markets move in tandem, but the link really is fear," said Chris Edmonds, head of research at New Orleans-based Prichard Capital Partners.
"When geopolitical issues get bubbly, it tends to have a similar effect because people go to hard currencies, like gold, and it creates concern about the stability of oil supplies."
The futures price of gold for June delivery traded in New York closed above $618 an ounce, the highest price recorded in 25 years. The futures price of silver for May delivery closed above $13 an ounce, the highest price since 1983.
The situation in Iran appears to be intensifying, as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced last week that the country's scientists had enriched uranium to 3.5 percent, the level needed for civilian purposes.
One sign of that was the price of Brent crude traded in London closed up 89 cents at a new high of $71.46 a barrel. The U.S., which has had sanctions against Iran for more than two decades, is not supposed to import Iranian crude.
"Brent is usually cheaper than Nymex oil, but that's no longer the case because Europeans import Iranian oil and we don't," Jason Schenker, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, N.C., told Bloomberg News.
Crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $70.40 a barrel. The last time oil was trading above $70 was several months ago after Hurricane Katrina knocked out much of the offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico.
On the sidelines of the Qatar Economic Forum, that country's energy minister, Abdullah Al-Attiyah, told Reuters that he does not believe there will be a disruption in oil coming out of Iran, the world's fourth-largest producer of crude.
However, he said he does worry about oil prices when they jump above $60 a barrel.
"I think oil prices are too high, but there is nothing we can do," he said of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Qatar is one of OPEC's 11 member nations.
Worries about supply shortfalls coupled with demand growth in China, India and the U.S. make Stephen Leeb think crude oil prices won't be dropping in any meaningful way.
Leeb, who runs Leeb Capital Management, has been predicting $100-per-barrel oil for two years now.
"It's not even hurricane season yet, and oil costs more than it did in the days after Katrina," Leeb said, adding that the U.S. should not wait any longer to bring on alternative energy supplies. "The bottom line will be a persistent long-term upward trend in oil prices, along with higher inflation, and possibly a major shift in the way the world works," he said.
Natural gas prices also jumped in Monday trading. The price of gas rose 6 percent — up 44.2 cents to $7.57 per million British thermal units.
Historically, natural gas prices rise and fall alongside those of oil, with the price of gas trading around one-tenth the price of crude. Buyers of natural gas are betting that fuel, which can be a substitute for oil in some power plants and heavy manufacturing, will be in high demand this summer if crude prices continue to climb.
There is also speculation that because the winter was unseasonably warm, this summer might be hotter than usual.
That could translate into high demand for so-called "peaker" power plants that only kick on during the hottest days of the summer when massive amounts of electricity are needed. Most peaker plants run on natural gas.
ljcook@chron.com
Price-gain trifecta: oil, gold and silver
Fear is the driving force behind increases, with Iran's nuclear designs leading the way
By LYNN J. COOK
Copyright 2006 Houston Chronicle
OIL, gold and silver all broke price records in Monday trading, and the trifecta of highs have one common denominator — fear.
One fear is that the world's supply of oil could be sharply cut by political problems in Iran, which the U.S. government has said is committed to becoming a nuclear power despite U.S. and European objections, or Nigeria, where militants angry with the government have already successfully sabotaged oil fields and export terminals. The follow-on fear is that high energy prices will drive up the price of consumer goods while pushing the value of Wall Street-traded stocks down.
Many buyers of the so-called hard currencies, including gold and silver, put their money into metals because they believe that in periods of uncertainty, those investments will be worth more than stocks and bonds.
"There are all sorts of theories out there about how these markets move in tandem, but the link really is fear," said Chris Edmonds, head of research at New Orleans-based Prichard Capital Partners.
"When geopolitical issues get bubbly, it tends to have a similar effect because people go to hard currencies, like gold, and it creates concern about the stability of oil supplies."
The futures price of gold for June delivery traded in New York closed above $618 an ounce, the highest price recorded in 25 years. The futures price of silver for May delivery closed above $13 an ounce, the highest price since 1983.
The situation in Iran appears to be intensifying, as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced last week that the country's scientists had enriched uranium to 3.5 percent, the level needed for civilian purposes.
One sign of that was the price of Brent crude traded in London closed up 89 cents at a new high of $71.46 a barrel. The U.S., which has had sanctions against Iran for more than two decades, is not supposed to import Iranian crude.
"Brent is usually cheaper than Nymex oil, but that's no longer the case because Europeans import Iranian oil and we don't," Jason Schenker, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, N.C., told Bloomberg News.
Crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $70.40 a barrel. The last time oil was trading above $70 was several months ago after Hurricane Katrina knocked out much of the offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico.
On the sidelines of the Qatar Economic Forum, that country's energy minister, Abdullah Al-Attiyah, told Reuters that he does not believe there will be a disruption in oil coming out of Iran, the world's fourth-largest producer of crude.
However, he said he does worry about oil prices when they jump above $60 a barrel.
"I think oil prices are too high, but there is nothing we can do," he said of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Qatar is one of OPEC's 11 member nations.
Worries about supply shortfalls coupled with demand growth in China, India and the U.S. make Stephen Leeb think crude oil prices won't be dropping in any meaningful way.
Leeb, who runs Leeb Capital Management, has been predicting $100-per-barrel oil for two years now.
"It's not even hurricane season yet, and oil costs more than it did in the days after Katrina," Leeb said, adding that the U.S. should not wait any longer to bring on alternative energy supplies. "The bottom line will be a persistent long-term upward trend in oil prices, along with higher inflation, and possibly a major shift in the way the world works," he said.
Natural gas prices also jumped in Monday trading. The price of gas rose 6 percent — up 44.2 cents to $7.57 per million British thermal units.
Historically, natural gas prices rise and fall alongside those of oil, with the price of gas trading around one-tenth the price of crude. Buyers of natural gas are betting that fuel, which can be a substitute for oil in some power plants and heavy manufacturing, will be in high demand this summer if crude prices continue to climb.
There is also speculation that because the winter was unseasonably warm, this summer might be hotter than usual.
That could translate into high demand for so-called "peaker" power plants that only kick on during the hottest days of the summer when massive amounts of electricity are needed. Most peaker plants run on natural gas.
ljcook@chron.com
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