Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[tiopatinhas]

Pata, o sr ministro falou, avisou e parece ser verdade
Hoje a queda foi...
Ou será mera correcção
Eu edeveria ter dado maior atenção ao teu tópico
Foi um bom aviso que desvalorizámos...
Bem hajas

[JCS]

Não é de estranhar que esteja preocupado com o mercado russo uma vez que o indice russo subiu (segundo o texto) 83% em 2005 (!!!) e já leva este ano 30%... Nós cá na europa podemos estar mais descansados...

JCS

[Pata-Hari]

Não sei se merece credibilidade, julga tu pelo que diz sabendo que é o ministro da economia. Ele explica a opinião dele e argumenta simplesmente que os números de crescimento não parecem poder manter-se aos níveis actuais. E termina dizendo que, no entanto, os pers da russia continuam a estar entre os mais baratos do mundo... A morgan stanley parece partilhar da opinião do senhor.

[tiopatinhas]

Pata, este artista merece credibilidade?
Eu de Inglês percebo pouco mas, ele pretende asssutar os mercados?
Bom Domingo

[Pata-Hari]

Um novo cavaco Russo

Russia economy chief warns of a stock crash
Bloomberg News

FRIDAY, MARCH 3, 2006


MOSCOW Economy Minister German Gref said Thursday that Russia's quality of economic growth was declining and that he was "very afraid" of a possible sudden drop in stock prices after equity benchmarks soared to records last year.

"We're very afraid of the formation of a so-called bubble," Gref said at a cabinet meeting in Moscow. "We should keep our hands on the pulse of key companies to understand if the optimism of stock market players will lead to a fall that will take a long time to recover from."

The RTS index surged 83 percent last year, making it the biggest gainer outside the Middle East of the 77 major indexes tracked by Bloomberg. The RTS has added 30 percent this year, lagging only the main indexes in Venezuela and Peru.

Underinvestment is eroding the Russian economy's eight-year-old boom, Gref said. Growth slowed for a third year in 2005, to 6.4 percent, as oil output advanced at the slowest pace in six years and output declined in key sectors of the machine-building industry. At the same time, there is a growing inflow of money into the nation's stock market, driven in part from ratings upgrades, Gref said.

"The lack of investment activity is critically important for the competitiveness of the economy," Gref said. "The inflow of investment is needed to support a stable rate of growth" and boost productivity.

Russia's car and aircraft production industries suffered output declines last year because they are not globally competitive, Gref said. But the stock of AvtoVAZ, Russia's largest carmaker, has gained 55 percent this year, and shares of Gorkovsky Auto Plant, the second- biggest Russian auto maker, have risen 35 percent, outpacing the RTS index.

Russia's consumer credit expansion, which has been driving retail trade and economic growth, cannot sustain its recent pace, Gref said. Retail credit grew 90 percent in 2004 and 77 percent in 2005, he said. "This motor of economic growth has a temporary nature," he said.

Morgan Stanley strategists warned this week of rising risks that indexes in emerging markets like Russia would tumble. "There are signals of negative growth or earnings surprises ahead," such as the possibility of slowing world economic growth, the strategists wrote in a report titled "Head for the Hills!"

"Sentiment and fund flows are at extreme highs," said the strategists, Neil Wedlake and Michael Wang. "The tide of risks has been rising."

The American Chamber of Commerce in Moscow said at a conference on Wednesday that economic growth in Russia was not stable in the long term because the country was not attracting enough investment to modernize aging equipment. Russian oil and gas production growth is "leveling down," Trem Smith, head of Chevron's Russian unit, said at the conference.

"You aren't seeing enough investments, higher taxes and, in many cases, lack of clarity on what the rules are," Smith said.

The country's daily oil output rose to 9.46 million barrels in February, up 1.5 percent from a year earlier, according to data from the Energy Ministry, compared with 1.8 percent annual growth recorded in January.

"The most important thing," Gref said, "is that unfortunately the quality of economic growth hasn't improved."

The Russian government on Wednesday raised its expectation for oil prices for the next three years, a forecast on which it bases its budget.

Urals crude, Russia's major export blend of oil, is now expected to trade at an average of $51 a barrel in 2006, compared with the previous forecast of $45, the Finance Ministry said on its Web site. That level would mean an extra 560 billion rubles, or about $20 billion, in 2006 budget revenue, bringing total revenue to 5.6 trillion rubles.

Companies traded on Russia's two major exchanges - the RTS, or the Russian Trading System, and the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange, or Micex - have a combined market value that is 7.8 times more than their total net income, Gref said. That price/earnings ratio is "normal," but the pace of growth is worrisome, he said.

The ratio, said Peter Halloran, who helps manage $350 million in 40 Russian stocks at Pharos Financial Group, "would have to hit 15 before you could even start talking about a bubble."

"Russia," he said, "is still one of the cheapest markets in the world."