Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[costarios]

Hmm... 30 mil?? Uma boa notícia para os investidores... uma péssima notícia para os trabalhodores e respectivas famílias.

[Dealer]

A General Motors, maior construtora automóvel do mundo, anunciou hoje um plano de reestruturação que implica o fecho de 12 fábricas na América e o corte de 30 mil postos de trabalho.

Este agressivo plano de corte de actividade surge depois da empresa ter registado prejuízos de 4,8 mil milhões de dólares (4,07 mil milhões de euros) este ano e ter visto o seu «rating» de crédito cortado para «junk».

Esta «performance» da General Motors é explicada pelo aumento da concorrência de outras construtoras automóveis, como a Toyota, que levaram a quota de mercado da fabricante da Opel a atingir um mínimo 80 anos. Nos primeiros 10 meses deste ano a quota da GM nos EUA baixou para 26%, o valor mais baixo desde 1925 e que compara com o pico de 51% em 1962.

O presidente executivo da empresa, Rick Wagoner, já tinha anunciado que a empresa teria de cortar 25 mil empregos até 2008. As acções da General Motors acumulam este ano uma desvalorização de 40% e transaccionam em mínimos de 1987.

Este plano vai cortar a capacidade de produção da GM em um milhão de veículos no final de 2008.

No mês de Outubro as vendas da GM nos Estados Unidos desceram 26%, com as construtoras asiáticas a atingirem a quota de mercado mais elevada de sempre na maior economia do mundo.

Ao contrário da GM, a Toyota está a expandir a sua actividade nos EUA, planeando a abertura de novas fábricas.

Este plano de reestruturação afecta apenas as actividades da GM na América do Norte.

Em Portugal a Opel tem uma fábrica na Azambuja e a administração da companhia anunciou recentemente que a fábrica poderia encerrar, caso não fosse obtido um acordo com os trabalhadores.

[GAB]

info

[Jameson]

http://economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=5175818

That sinking feeling

Nov 17th 2005
From The Economist print edition

The world’s largest carmaker is at sea and floundering



FOR years General Motors (GM) was the undisputed titan of the world’s car industry, effortlessly dominating everything. Now, to suppliers, employees and pensioners it must seem less like a titan and more like the Titanic, holed below the water-line, sinking slowly by the bow to the sound of loud shocks and bangs as bulkheads give way, one after the other. The chief executive on the bridge, Rick Wagoner, can rush around and bark orders, but to little effect.

At its peak in the early 1960s, the giant controlled over half the American car market and set the standards by which most of the world’s manufacturing industry was measured. But it has been more than a generation since GM’s dominance went unchallenged and, despite billions of dollars invested in new factories and vehicles, it has suffered a relentless decline in market share (see chart below). Earnings have plunged, especially in its core North American market. The good ship GM scraped even more icebergs lately, the most recent being an announcement last week that it would have to restate earnings for 2001, due to improperly booked credits from suppliers.

Although this latest news is relatively minor (affecting a four-year-old financial report by only $400m) it had the sound of another groaning bulkhead and made people nervous. Since the announcement, GM’s share price has plunged even further; by close of trading on Wednesday November 16th, the stock was 22% below its level at the beginning of the month. And for the first time since the carmaker’s last big brush with disaster—in 1992, when the company came within 40 minutes of bankruptcy—GM’s bonds are back in the junkyard. Analysts and observers are muttering again about possible bankruptcy.

Exactly how and why things have gone so wrong is a matter of debate. Certainly, the situation was dire 13 years ago when a newly energised GM board flexed its muscle. They turned to Jack Smith, who in turn signed on Mr Wagoner, then barely 40, as one of his top lieutenants. The new management closed plants, cut the workforce, sold lacklustre component operations and seemingly restored much of the company’s former lustre. By the boom years of the mid-1990s, GM was again rolling up record profits.

Yet, despite a few exceptional years, sales continued to decline. Critics, such as Dan Gorrell of Strategic Visions, a Californian consulting firm, say GM concentrated more on finance and marketing than designing and making cars. Indeed, after the company’s annual meeting, Mr Wagoner conceded: “If we had a chance to rerun the last five years, we probably would have done a little more thinking about making sure that each product was distinctive and had a chance to be successful.”



GM paid a lot of attention to the development of its newest, full-sized sport-utility vehicles (SUVs), which will arrive in the showrooms early in 2006. But even the company’s bullish “car tsar”, the vice-chairman, Bob Lutz, admits that the potential market for these vehicles has declined dramatically with higher oil prices.

Misreading the SUV market might be bad enough, but GM also played down the need for a new generation of more fuel-efficient “crossover” vehicles. These are like SUVs, but lighter. The company scored a hit with its first models, such as the Chevrolet Equinox, but by the time the rest arrive Japanese competitors are likely to have taken control of the segment. GM refused to believe there would be enough demand to justify investment in petrol-electric hybrids. Yet again, it is now racing to catch up in a part of the market where the Japanese overwhelmingly dominate.

But products are only part of the problem at GM. Mr Wagoner was able to put a positive spin on GM’s bleak, third-quarter earnings report (losses are $3.8 billion so far this year) by announcing that the United Auto Workers Union (UAW) would grant unprecedented concessions, shaving $1 billion from the carmaker’s mounting health-care bill. He has turned his attention to attacking so-called legacy costs. The huge cutbacks of the 1990s saddled GM with nearly three retirees for every active worker. Yet the situation may only get worse in the short term, with more closures expected to be announced next month. This could amount to up to six factories being shut.

Then there is the worsening situation at Delphi. Made up of former GM parts operations, the supplier is struggling to stay alive under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Its chief executive, Steve Miller, has given warning that he may ask the bankruptcy court to overturn the firm’s current labour contract. If that happens, Delphi’s well-paid American workers could suddenly find themselves taking home a meagre $9 an hour. UAW leaders are threatening to strike if Mr Miller goes ahead. A walkout could disrupt the entire motor industry, but as Delphi’s biggest customer by far, GM would suffer the most.



Not everything has gone wrong on Mr Wagoner’s watch, of course. He has been successful in expanding abroad. The company’s European operations are slowly recovering and Brazil has bounced back. GM’s acquisition of South Korea’s Daewoo is looking like a bargain and is doing exceptionally well. Then there is China, where Mr Smith defied conventional wisdom at the time by being one of the first to open an assembly plant. Mr Wagoner has since ramped up Chinese operations, lining up a string of highly profitable joint-ventures and assembly operations. Ironically, it is the Buick badge that has connected best with Chinese motorists, and soon the brand may sell more cars in Asia than at home, where its staid image leaves many Americans cold.

Buick epitomises GM’s challenge as it seeks to improve its global operations while reducing its dependence on America. One of Mr Wagoner’s first steps as chief executive was to pull the plug on the ailing Oldsmobile division. He has repeatedly insisted that he has no intention of scuttling any more of GM’s eight surviving car brands. But with its market share only around 25%, it is becoming increasingly difficult to justify the economics of feeding so many car divisions with truly new and exciting products.

The mystery passenger

As if Mr Wagoner did not have enough to worry about, there is Kirk Kerkorian. The reclusive Las Vegas billionaire now owns 9.9% of GM, a stake which has so far lost him a great deal of money, at least on paper. The octogenarian investor is “a difficult taskmaster”, cautions Gerry Meyers, a former chief executive of American Motors and now a professor at the University of Michigan. If things do not turn around, he expects Mr Kerkorian “will make himself very visible”. Mr Kerkorian made that clear when he once mounted an ultimately unsuccessful takeover bid for Chrysler. He is reportedly angling for a seat on the GM board for one of his own lieutenants, Jerry York, a former Chrysler executive.

Along with factory cutbacks, Mr Wagoner is planning to sell off a large stake in the company’s profitable finance subsidiary, General Motors Acceptance Corp. Trying to predict his remaining options has become something of a parlour game in Detroit circles. Some are betting that GM will end up in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, now a popular move among American companies saddled with burdensome debts and high labour costs. Others give warning that such a move would simply alienate potential buyers of GM cars, making the situation graver still. Consumers will worry about warranties and the resale value of cars. What is clear is that GM’s options are steadily diminishing and its still sizeable financial resources are being drained away at a frightening rate. At the current pace, it may not have the momentum to reach a safe port.

[FRM]

GM stock slumps to historic low
By August Cole, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:10 PM ET Nov. 16, 2005

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors shares hit their lowest level in 18 years Wednesday afternoon, as the world's biggest automaker remained locked in a battle against high costs, fierce foreign competition and with investors unhappy at the Dow component's 44% decline this year.




FinancialsMore GMGM21.08, -0.21, -1.0%) closed down 5.8% to $21.29 on volume of 35.1 million shares -- the third most-active stock on the New York Stock Exchange. At one point, shares traded as low as $20.90.



A GM spokesman declined to comment on the stock move.

Earlier this month, Detroit-based GM got the United Auto Workers to ratify major savings on health-care expenses that would have retirees paying for health care for the first time.

With that victory in hand, however, GM still has to get itself back to profitability. During the third quarter, the red ink tallied up to $1.6 billion -- a year ago GM was in the black.

The prospects of a turnaround have drawn in financier Kirk Kerkorian, who has been boosting his stake in GM and accordingly ratcheting up the pressure on the top ranks.

"Given GM's continued selloff, we believe investor focus is increasingly trying to anticipate actions Kirk Kerkorian can, and may, take to address the continued deterioration in sentiment," wrote Bear Stearns analysts. The analysts note that the nomination period for the board of directors begins on Dec. 8 and runs through Feb. 6.

"Our sense is the stock's initial response would likely be positive and proportionate to the number of seats Kerkorian gains, as he could be perceived as a catalyst for change -- although it's still unclear exactly what those changes might be," the Bear analysts said.

The recent revelation that 2001's earnings were overstated only added to management's woes, which also include how to handle the bankruptcy of former unit Delphi Corp. (DPHIQ:
delphi corp com
Some Wall Street analysts are concerned that a strike at Delphi would deal a weighty blow to GM as it counts on the parts and components from the company to keep its production lines running.

On Wednesday, the UAW said in an online update for members that "Delphi's contract proposal is not a framework for an agreement, but a road map for confrontation."

Of some relief this fall has been the announcement that its lucrative GMAC finance unit might be on the block, generating much needed cash.

Financials aside, the company is coming up on the launch of a new line of trucks that could mark a turning point.

Though heavy discounting of new vehicles continues, GM, like other automakers, is hoping for hits that won't rely on employee-discount pricing or cut-rate financing to get off the lots.

GM announced its latest discounts on Monday to help finish out the year strongly. But the aggressive incentives offered by GM and other automakers -- now a staple of the U.S. auto market -- have been criticized by analysts who say they are too costly.

[GAB]

pelo que se tem passado, pela "queda" do preço do activo etc etc parece-me que pode mesmo ser o PRINCIPIO DO FIM, isto claro num eventual espaço temporal de 1-2 anos....

Talvez seja exagerado falar logo em falência.... mas pelo menos que activo poderá entrar num "estado"BEAR prolongado com quedas enormes isso parece-me muito provável.

A intenção deste post é debater-se precisamente pequenos detalhes que possam mostrar a "pele de urso"(prolongado) e de eventualfalência ou não.

[nunofaustino]

eu, pelo outro lado, cada vez mais acredito que isso eh uma inevitabilidade a medio prazo...

Um abraco
Nuno

[costarios]

Bem... não imaginas o susto que pregaste, GAB.

Eu pessoalmente duvido que chegue a este ponto. A justiça americana dá muitas oportunidades antes de uma empresa decretar falência... mas isto já aconteceu a empresas gigantescas e das quais não se esperava tal coisa (quem aqui ainda se lembra da PanAm?).

[Emanuel Santos]

Ah é uma pergunta!? Da forma como foi apresentado o tópico, pensei que fosse uma afirmação!

[GAB]

o que vos parece?