Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[correia]

Japan's Nikkei rises after Koizumi victory
Sun Sep 11, 2005 08:08 PM ET
(Updates to opening)

TOKYO, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average share rose 1.17 percent on Monday as a crushing victory by reformist Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party in Sunday's election encouraged investors.

Banks, steel, and technology shares were among the issues snapped up, with the market's gains also helped by figures showing Japan's economy grew faster than initially estimated in the April-June quarter.

The Nikkei average gained 148.76 points to 12,840.80 as of 0002 GMT, while the TOPIX index rose 1.08 percent to 1,307.38.

[correia]

Este gráfico está bonito e recomenda-se agora q a meta dos 13000 se aproxima. Vamos a ver como se porta nas próximas semanas![/code]

[correia]

RPT-Nikkei,yen seen rising on Japan PM's landslide win
Sun Sep 11, 2005 11:28 AM ET
(Repeats to fix formatting)

By Shinichi Kishima

TOKYO, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Japanese share prices are poised to probe four-year highs, helping to boost the value of the yen, after Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's ruling coalition won a landslide victory in Sunday's general election. Even though Tokyo stocks have already gained nearly 10 percent since Koizumi called the election a month ago, his sweeping victory far surpassed expectations, spurring hopes that he will have a stronger hand -- notably against the conservative wing of his own party -- in pursuing structural reforms.

"The markets had somewhat factored in a victory for Koizumi, but I think it went beyond the markets' expectations," said Mamoru Yamazaki, a senior economist at HSBC Securities.

"As it looks like Koizumi's party will win by a landslide, he will have a firmer grip on his party, and that will spur hopes that reforms will speed up."

The Tokyo market's benchmark Nikkei average closed on Friday at 12,692.04, up 1.3 percent on the day and not far from a four-year intraday high of 12,730.21 set last Monday.

Adding to the momentum was Friday's rally in U.S. stocks amid signs of a let-up in sky-high oil prices, as well as recent generally upbeat Japanese economic indicators.

Revised Japanese gross domestic product data due out at 8:50 a.m. on Monday (2350 GMT, Sunday), just before the market opens, is expected to show the economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.5 percent in the April-June quarter, compared with a preliminary estimate of 1.1 percent growth.

"U.S. stocks rose on Friday and the Nikkei futures in Chicago briefly went above 12,800," said Tsuyoshi Nomaguchi, equity strategist at Daiwa Securities.

December Nikkei futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ended 270 points higher at 12,795.00 after briefly rising as high as 12,815.00.

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The bullishness on Japanese equities, in turn, is expected to boost the yen, which has been mostly meandering in a narrow range of 109-112 to the dollar . It hit a 2-1/2-month high around 108.75 last Monday, a gain of nearly 5 percent from a one-year low near 113.75 set in July.

"I have a feeling that Nikkei share average will shoot up to 13,000 soon, which will bolster the yen," Mitsuru Sahara, senior vice president of forex at UFJ Bank.

"I'd say the yen could gain to around 106-107 yen (to the dollar) in about three months."

Analysts warn that trading could be choppy in early post-election trading, given that some investors are likely to lock in profits from the Nikkei's gains.

Still, the overwhelming scale of Koizumi's victory would mean the underlying trend is for an extended rally.

"One risk tomorrow morning is the 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' risk, but I'd definitely be willing to buy the yen tomorrow," said Luke Waddington, chief forex dealer at Royal Bank of Scotland in Tokyo.

"No one was really adjusting their yen investment positions before the election, so why should they now? The results only secure their investments."

One caveat to the buy-Japan trend would be that a stronger yen could be bad news for shares of Japanese exporters, whose dollar-based revenue would be worth less in yen and whose price-competitiveness abroad would be undermined.

"I expect share prices to rise, but I'm curious to see how much the dollar/yen moves," said Takahiko Murai, general manager of equities at Nozomi Securities.

He said a stronger yen would give an edge to sectors focused on domestic business, such as banks, property and construction.

Japanese government bonds are also set for a sell-off as they tend to move in the opposite direction from stocks.

But Koizumi's administration has been regarded, at least in the bond market, as relatively restrictive on debt issuance, and that would underpin the market, analysts said.

(Additional reporting by Hideyuki Sano, Naomi Tajitsu, Eriko Amaha and Tamawa Kadoya)