Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[valves]

Olá ...

Eu não concordo com a tese que o Trading e o mercado de capitais esteja vedado a pessoas com determinadas competencias e que quem não a tem simplesmente vai ficar de fora. Não serve de desculpa acho que já todos percebemos que no mundo em que vivemos hoje quem não for capaz de assumir um determinado patamar de riscos ( simplesmente não vai ter remunerações acima da média e a meu ver é preocupante ver em Portugal que as pessoas procuram a segurança das cadeiras de um emprego Pseudo estavel ao invez de procurarem desenvolver capacidades inatas que tenham em alguma área e tentarem com elas chegarem mais longe. Vivemos num mundo cada vez menos estavel e procurar estabilidades num mundo cada vez menos estavel parece -me um exercicio perigoso alem de um pouco monotono porque nem sequer me parece que possa trazer felicidade ás pessoas.

Um abraço

Vasco

[Touro]

O António Damásio e a esposa, Hanna Damásio, são co-autores do artigo publicado na revista Psychological Science.

Já agora fica o título e o resumo do artigo original:

Título:Investment behavior and the negative side of emotion

Abstract: Can dysfunction in neural systems subserving emotion lead, under certain circumstances, to more advantageous decisions? To answer this question, we investigated how normal participants, patients with stable focal lesions in brain regions related to emotion (target patients), and patients with stable focal lesions in brain regions unrelated to emotion (control patients) made 20 rounds of investment decisions. Target patients made more advantageous decisions and ultimately earned more money from their investments than the normal participants and control patients. When normal participants and control patients either won or lost money on an investment round, they adopted a conservative strategy and became more reluctant to invest on the subsequent round; these results suggest that they were more affected than target patients by the outcomes of decisions made in the previous rounds.

[semprefrio]

Muito bem visto.

[ScrappeR]

Continua!! Comigo funcionou.

[UmPataconcio]

bem... eu farto-me de dar cabeçadas à conta da bolsa, vamos lá ver se algum dia fico milionario

[semprefrio]

Espanta-me que tanto um grupo como o outro eram constituídos por pessoas que não conseguiam, com dados tão simples, compreender que deviam jogar sempre.

Pois, só que não se tratou de um problema de compreensão:

The researchers believe fear had a lot to do with the poor performance of non-brain damaged participants. "If you just observe these people, they know the right thing to do is invest in every single round," says Saba Shiv, an associate professor of marketing at the Stanford business school and a co-author of the study. "But when they actually get into the comes of the previous rounds."

[Incognitus]

Eu por mim, todos tinham danos cerebrais, tendo em conta as regras do jogo, e o facto de nenhum dos grupos ter ido a jogo sempre.

[semprefrio]

Outra coisa:

Nem precisavam de se dar ao trabalho de arranjar pessoas com danos cerebrais.

Bastava terem comparado o compartamento de um grupo de adolescentes com um grupo de pessoas com idades superiores.

Por alguma coisa a maioria dos adolescentes têm uma muito menor aversão ao risco.

[Incognitus]

Espanta-me que tanto um grupo como o outro eram constituídos por pessoas que não conseguiam, com dados tão simples, compreender que deviam jogar sempre.

[valves]

Excelente artigo que nos conduz a uma questão fulcral :

O um bom investidor tem já com ele capacidades inatas que depois vai desenvolvendo com a dedicação e estudo dos mercados ou simplesmente as capacidades inatas não jogam neste campo qualquer papel.

Provavelmente qualquer pessoa pode ser um bom investidor e um bom trader através do estudo e da dedicação aos mercados agora a barreira entre ser se um bom investidor e conseguir -se a excelencia já pode ser motivada por factores inatos em todo o caso a excelencia também não é alcançada sem trabalho e dedicação mesmo que se tenha nascido com capacidades inatas para o trading pode mesmo dar o exemplo do Futebol O Cristiano Ronaldo é um jogador um excelente (tem capacidades inatas ) mas precisa de treinar essas capacidades diariamente com dedicação caso contrario também não obtem a excelencia

Um abraço

Vasco

[semprefrio]

A conclusão é completamente abusiva:

"Emotionally Impaired People May Make Better Money Decisions"

Numa experiência onde são de esperar 50% de resultados positivos, onde o ganho é 2,5x superior à perda, onde não existe o risco de falência, estes resultados não podem surprender ninguém.

[C.N.]

Li este artigo e achei muito interessante

Brain Damage and Investing
Emotionally Impaired People May Make Better Money Decisions
By Jane Spencer - Published on The Asian Wall Street Journal, July 22-24 2005 edition.

People with certain kinds of brain damage may make better investment decisions. That is the conclusion of a new study offering some compelling evidence that mixing emotion with investing can lead to bad outcomes.

By linking brain science to investment behavior, researchers concluded that people with an impaired ability to experience emotions could actually make better financial decisions than other people under certain circumstances. The research is part of a fast-growing interdisciplinary field called "neuroeconomics" that explores the role biology plays in economic decision making, by combining insights from cognitive neuroscience, psychology and economics. The study was published last month in the journal Psychological Science, and was conducted by a team of researchers from Carnegie Mellon University the Stanford Graduate School of Business and the University of Iowa.

The 15 brain damaged participants that were the focus of the study had normal IQs, and the areas of their brains responsible for logic and cognitive reasoning were intact. But they had lesions in the region of the brain that controls emotions, which inhibited their ability to experience basic feelings such as fear or anxiety. The lesions were due to a range of causes, including stroke and disease, but they impaired the participants' emotional functioning in a similar manner.

The study suggests the participants' lack of emotional responsiveness actually gave them an advantage when they played a simple investment game. The emotionally impaired players were more willing to take gambles that had high payoffs. Players with undamaged brain wiring, however, were more cautious and reactive during the game, and finished with less money.

Some neuroscientists believe good investors may be exceptionally skilled at suppressing emotional reactions. "It's possible that people who are high-risk takers or good investors may have what you call a functional psychopathy," says Antoine Bechara, an associate professor of neurology at the University of Iowa, and a co-author of the study. "They don't react emotionally to things. Good investors can learn to control their emotions in certain ways to become like those people."

The study demonstrates how neuroeconomics can offer insight into a question that has become a growing focus of economic inquiry: Why don't people always act in their own self-interest when they make economic decisions?

Though the field is still in its infancy, researchers hope neuroeconomics could someday have dozens of real world applications - like explaining how brain chemistry influences market phenomena such as bubble manias and investor panics. Wall Street executives already are paying attention to the findings, since it offers insight into what motivates investors.

"This branch of inquiry and economic investigation is really fortifying and buttressing our understanding of investor behavior,'' says David Darst, chief investment strategist in the Individual Investor Group at Morgan Stanley. "It's beginning to inform our tactical decisions."

Using sophisticated brain-imaging technology such as magnetic-resonance-imaging, or MRL tests and other tools, neuroeconomists peek inside people's brains to see which regions are activated when we engage in behaviors such as evaluating risks and rewards, making choices and cooperating with other people. Neuroeconomic researchers also tap into brain activity by measuring brain chemicals and exploring how damage to specific brain regions impacts economic decision making.

Neuroeconomics grew out of a related field called behavioral economics. Behavioral economists use insights from psychology and other social sciences to explore why humans don't always behave as predictably as standard economic models suggest they should.

In the late 1990's, when the links between psychology and neurobiology were firmly established, behavioral economists began turning to neuroscientists, in addition to psychologists, for help explaining human behavior. The idea was that if brain chemistry could explain phenomena such as depression or attention deficit disorder, it might also help explain more mundane psychological functions, such as how people reach financial decisions.

Behavioral economists like Princeton University's Daniel Kahneman, who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2002, began teaming up with neuroscientists, like Peter Shizgal at Concordia University in Montreal. In one study, the pair used gambling games and neuroimaging techniques to look at what part of the brain is triggered when people anticipate winning money. They found that monetary rewards trigger the same brain activity as good tastes, pleasant music or addictive drugs.

The 41 participants in the new study included people with and without brain damage, including a control group of participants with brain damage that didn't affect their emotional processing. Players were given $20 and asked to play a simple gambling game that involved 20 rounds of coin tosses. If they won a coin toss, they earned $2.50. If they lost the toss, they had to give up a dollar. They could choose not to play in any given round, in which case they kept their dollar.

Logic indicates that the best strategy was to take the gamble in every round of the game, since the return on a win was much higher than the potential loss, and the risk in each round was 50-50. The players with emotion-related brain damage took a more logical strategy, investing in 81% of rounds, while the nonbrain-damaged players invested in just 58%' of the rounds. Emotionally impaired participants outperformed the nonbrain-damaged participants, winding up with an average of $25.70 versus $22.80 at the end of the game.

The researchers believe fear had a lot to do with the poor performance of non-brain damaged participants. "If you just observe these people, they know the right thing to do is invest in every single round," says Saba Shiv, an associate professor of marketing at the Stanford business school and a co-author of the study. "But when they actually get into the comes of the previous rounds."

Yet emotions may play a useful role in financial decision making. While tile brain-damaged players did well in the specific game ill the study, they didn't generally perform well when it came to making financial decisions in the real aged players had experienced personal bankruptcy. Their inability to experience fear led to risk-seeking behavior, and their lack of emotional judgment sometimes led them to get tangled up with people who took advantage of them. Their life experience suggests emotions can play an important role in protecting our interests, even if they sometimes interfere with rational decision making.

Humans developed this fear response as a survival mechanism to protect against predators. But in a world where predators aren't lurking around every corner, this fear system can be oversensitive, reacting to dangers that don't actually exist and pushing us toward illogical choices.

"There was no such thing as stock in the Pleistocene era," says George Loewenstein, a professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University, and a co-author of the study. "But human beings are pathologically risk averse. A lot of the mechanisms that drive our emotions aren’t really that well adapted to modern life.”

Published on The Asian Wall Street Journal, July 22-24 2005 edition.