Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[djovarius]

Se há coisa que mudou foram as expectativas inflacionistas, as quais agora passaram apenas "a estar bem contidas" enquanto antes tinham potencial para ser um risco de longo prazo.

Isto é resultado de alguns dados que indicam arrefecimento no 2º trimestre, corroborados pelo Chigago PMI de hoje, o mais baixo de mais de 12 meses.

De toda a maneira, nem o FED pode ainda antever se o preço do petróleo vai arrefecer a Economia sem inflação, ou se a Economia vai continuar a crescer mas com mais inflação.

Por outro lado, a liquidez continua elevada.

E é de crer que se mantém o cenário no qual o topo da elevação dos juros poderá ser entre 3.5 e 4%, razão pela qual, o USD deverá continuar bem suportado, mas as Obrigações poderão fazer uma pausa na sua subida.

O mercado accionista deverá lateralizar neste cenário.

Com a inflação a 3,1% ao ano, os juros reais nos EUA são muito pouco positivos, pelo que se pode esperar uma alta até 3.75% sendo tudo o resto igual.

Abraço

djovarius

[Ulisses Pereira]

De facto, nem um sinal de que o fim das taxas está para breve. Esperava-se que a FED deixasse alguma indicação nesse sentido mas... nada.

Curioso observar o movimento das FED funds. Antes da decisão, estava incorporada na sua cotação uma probablidade de 0% da FED subir as taxas para 4% e, nesta altura, já vai em 20%.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Info....]

Text of FOMC statement:

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3-1/4 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Pressures on inflation have stayed elevated, but longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.

The Committee perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Richard W. Fisher; Edward M. Gramlich; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 4-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.

[Info....]

Fed hikes rates, signals more to come; FOMC boosts fed funds rate to 3.25%
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 2:16 PM ET June 30, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee boosted its target for short-term interest rates Thursday by a quarter percentage point to 3.25% and signaled further rate hikes are coming.

The Federal Reserve's policymaking committee left its post-meeting statement largely unchanged from May's statement... The committee said current rates remain "accommodative" and said once again that it believes rates can be raised at a "measured pace."

The FOMC said the risks of higher inflation and weaker growth would remain balanced if appropriate policies are followed.

The FOMC slightly modified its assessment of the economy from the May statement, reflecting more moderate inflation data.

"Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually," the committee said. "Pressures on inflation have stayed elevated, but longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained."

The vote to raise rates was unanimous. It was the ninth straight meeting at which the FOMC raised rates by a quarter point after the fed funds reached a four-decade low of 1% in mid-2003.

In a largely symbolic move, the Federal Reserve Board separately approved an increase in the discount rate to 4.25% requested by all 12 Fed banks.

The increase in the federal funds rate to 3.25% on Thursday will likely be followed immediately by increases in the prime lending rates charged by U.S. banks to their preferred customers.

Both the fed funds rate and the prime rate are used to fix rates for adjustable-rate loans.

Many borrowers could see higher interest rates over time, although the longer term rates paid by many borrowers have actually declined in the year since the first Fed tightening.

While the FOMC statement seemed to signal a further increase at the Aug. 9 meeting, the longer term course of Fed policy is uncertain. Financial markets, based on futures prices for fed funds contracts, anticipate just two more increases to 3.75%, likely in August and September, before the Fed pauses.

Economists who follow the Fed see four more rate hikes, with the fed funds rate ending at 4.25% early next year.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan could clarify the FOMC's intentions in his final testimony on the state of the economy to Congress in three weeks. The committee met for an extra day this week to prepare the FOMC's new forecasts and its report to Congress on July 20.

Fed policy has entered a tricky phase. Rates are closer to the neutral level the central bank seeks, where policy neither stimulates growth nor holds it back. Achieving a soft landing is extremely rare, however. Typically, the Fed has overtightened and the economy has tumbled into recession.

By most standards, the Fed has succeeded. Inflation, while rising, remains relatively low. Economic growth, despite sputters and starts, has been above trend for eight straight quarters.

But growth in the United States remains dependent on consumer spending and borrowing. A burgeoning current account deficit and a sizzling housing market threaten economic stability in the months and years ahead.

Weaning the economy off cheap money has not been easy. In part because of outside forces and in part because the Fed has been so successful in curbing inflation, longer-term rates remain stubbornly low and continue to fuel consumer spending and residential investment.

Meanwhile, corporations are flush with cash, but are reluctant to hire more workers or to aggressively invest in their U.S. operations.

[Info....]

2:15pm 06/30/05 FOMC: INFLATION ELEVATED, BUT EXPECTATIONS CONTAINED

2:15pm 06/30/05 FOMC SAYS RATES CAN BE RAISED AT MEASURED PACE

2:15pm 06/30/05 FOMC SAYS RATES STILL ACCOMMODATIVE

2:15pm 06/30/05 FOMC RAISES FED FUNDS TARGET TO 3.25%