Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Ulisses Pereira]

Cramer, que ao longo dos últimos meses tem sido um acérrimo defensor das acções petrolíferas, defende hoje que é hora de vender. Note-se que ele sempre realçou bem a diferença entre o crude e as acções petrolíferas apesar destas, naturalmente, beneficiarem de um crude eleveado. Aqui fica o artigo:

"Oil Stock Finally Signals Run's Ending"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
5/31/2005 9:28 AM


"You knew it had to happen eventually. You knew that the group finally would be out of steam when everyone recommended Exxon Mobil (XOM:NYSE - commentary - research). After today's twin upgrades by J.P. Morgan and Smith Barney, we are almost there.

This oil group has gone from hated to loved with Exxon, the Microsoft of the group, now worshipped near and far. No matter that it has very little leverage to crude -- I believe it has more leverage to the short interest rates in terms of earnings per share -- nor that the CEO believes oil's headed down, making it the chicken's way to play the group. The stock is so loved that it is obvious that it's almost out of room to run.

My pro-oil thesis rested on the belief that Wall Street hated the oils too much. I believed that, given the immense earnings these companies have, the strategists eventually would force the oil bears, so deeply entrenched at each sell-side firm, to upgrade.

That's all happening now. Which tells me that the group is simply not a great bet anymore. The money's in. I remain bullish on the drillers, because budgets have to come up, and on the intermediate-sized companies, because it's easier to take one of them over than it is to drill for new oil. Plus, they will be added to the S&P 500 soon, after all of the pending mergers close.

Now it's time to sell oils on strength and reduce the group to a more equal weighting. "

(in www.realmoney.com)