Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Ulisses Pereira]

Sim, fica difícil de perceber porque o número de acções não é muito grande face ao volume diário. Eu coloco duas hipóteses: Tentativa de beneficiar de ganhos noutras acções do sector, tentativa de exposição pública ou alguma coisa que fica, de facto, difícil de perceber.

Sou muitas vezes defensor que mais vale fazer uma oferta forte, acima do preço a que está a cotar, quando o volume é muito superior à média diária, porque a pressão compradora iria fazer com que o preço subisse muito mais no mercado, mas não me parece ser este o caso. Muita especulação sobre as verddeiras intenções da oferta...

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Rui12ld]

Volto a escrever o que disse ontem...

"Há aqui uma coisa que eu não entendo, então as acções andaram a marinar nos $24-$29 semanas a fio com volumes da ordem dos 10 milhões de acções, e agora está disposto a pagar esse prémio por 28 milhões?

Ou seja, não poderia ter ido ao mercado calmamente buscá-las mais barato?

Não entendo."

[Ulisses Pereira]

E aqui está a resposta de outro dos analistas do Realmoney ao Cramer:

Barry Ritholtz
Smart Money? Hardly
5/5/05 11:46 AM ET

"I have to strobly disagree with Jim Cramer's take on GM
My explanation for the Kerkorian/GM matter is pretty simple:

Before Monday, Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp already owned 22 million shares of GM. I don't know when he picked them up, but if it was anytime since January 2004, he's upside-down in the trade. And 3.9% of GM is a substantial institutional position, not a trade made last week on a "Hey-GM-is-cheap" whim.

It stands to reason that he is buried in the trade: Smart money? Maybe. Smart trade? Hardly.

Until yesterday's ploy, that is. That position was looking mighty dumb, but some creative PR by KK -- and Merrill Lynch upping their "Sell" to a "Hold" -- popped the stock big time.

But give credit to the crafty former greenmailer (recall his M.O. in the 80's). If he wanted to, the 87 year old Kerkorian could have very easily upped his stake, quietly accumulating another 28 million shares or so -- and probably done so on the down low at $27-29.

Instead, he worked the crowd like few others we've seen recently. The guy is old school, and I imagine that in the present highly regulated environment, very few people would have the chutzpah to do what Kerkorian did.

But I MUST question the motives of anyone who shouts "I BID $31 FOR GM" -- at $26 -- when they are already long 22 million shares. That's all too suspect. But you gotta admire the sheer audacity of the manuever (we used to be call it "churros Grande!").

That said, its a function of how oversold the market was that equities reacted the way they did.

Indeed, I find it kinda sad to hear the pundits discussing how "this means value -- it means that stocks are cheap," with lots of value to be unlocked.

With GM, at a market cap of $20 Billion, and over $200 in long term debt, there ain't a whole lot of value there. The value is the finance company -- GMAC. Unless they spin out GMAC, leaving the auto company even more buried in debt, and probably unable to survive in its present form -- there's no "there" there.

The saying used to be, what's good for GM is good for America. That needs to be edited for the 21st century. Today, what's ailing GM is what's ailing America: GM has sagged under the exhorbitant costs of a broken health care system. The bill is an additional $1500 - 2000 in health care expenses added on to the cost of each auto. That's as they compete with the Japanese -- particularly Toyota and Honda -- the world's most efficient manufacturers of automobiles.

That's like racing Jesse Owens while carrying a $50 pack on your back. That's not a task to relish.

Until GM gets the health care monkee of its back, I do not see how they can compete effectively in the domestic automobile market. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Can't Dismiss Kerkorian's GM Bid"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
5/5/2005 9:11 AM EDT


"The skepticism with which this Kirk Kerkorian move for General Motors (GM:NYSE - commentary - research) is viewed may be the single biggest reason I am taking it seriously.

I, too, want to laugh at the 87-year-old man having his kicks, buying up stock in a tender that could have been purchased over time. I, too, can't see a way out for this company's guarantees to workers.

But those who think he is in it for the "quick trade," which represented about 95% of the opinions I received on this issue, have to ask themselves, is there anything about Kerkorian that makes you feel that way?

I think there is a tendency to lump Carl Icahn and Kerkorian -- two "raiders" -- together. I don't like taking Icahn seriously. He's never really built anything, anything at all. He's parasitic in nature and not someone I would bring in to create value. He, frankly, isn't a good guy.

Kerkorian, though, has built a really great gaming empire. He is a shrewd dealmaker, but he is also a creator of value. Maybe nobody remembers, except for me, that he brought in Jerome York to Chrysler, who was instrumental in changing that company's culture. York then performed his magic to save IBM, although he never took much credit.

OK, so you don't buy that Kerkorian creates value. Ask yourself this: If he were really in it for a quick trade, why not buy as much as he could before having to disclose, which is much more than he has, and then start making a lot of noise like Icahn did at Kerr-McGee (KMG:NYSE - commentary - research), where the quick trade was really all that was involved.

Some speculated Wednesday that Kerkorian would flip his stock as it went above the tender. These people believe that the whole thing is a ruse, a pump and dump. My checks with lawyers and arbitragers say that the government could hit him with a 34-act manipulation claim if he did that. More importantly, there is nothing in this man's reputation that indicates he would ever do that. He cares passionately about his reputation, and that matters here.


Now, let's consider GM.

We all accept that this is one of the most poorly run companies in the universe. We all know it gave away the store to workers. But we also know that deals can be reopened, recut and, with some panache, changed to make things better. Of course, that usually means filing Chapter 11 first, which would wipe out the common stock. However, that doesn't mean something else can't be done. And if you think that magic can't happen, consider that the airline companies are basically all bankrupt and have been for ages, yet they can have sharp rallies that shouldn't happen but do.

I'm sorry, I can't dismiss this bid. There's nothing about Kerkorian that makes him dismissible, nothing. He's rich beyond belief. He probably, with a few phone calls, could buy the darned company. He's a seasoned player with a great reputation. Maybe I would feel differently if I were short.

I'm not, though.

I've been very negative about GM stock for a long time.

This makes me positive. Sorry. "

(in www.realmoney.com)