Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[andraderui]

Thursday, January 20, 2005 8:19 a.m. EST

Dear Action Alerts PLUS Subscriber,

"Lucent profit declines 49%," screams the headline in The
New York Times. "Lucent quarterly profit fell 50%," says
The Wall Street Journal. That, plus so-called "light"
revenue, contributed to a not-great quarter, both papers
declare.

Well, excuse me. Lucent (LU:NYSE) did everything I wanted.
Did it do MORE than I wanted? No, and you could argue
that "more than I wanted" is right if the stock is going to
go to $5 this year. But did the company really do less than
it said?

I have to tell you that everyone on the conference call
yesterday, and I mean it, everyone, knew that profit would
decline by half. The company repeatedly had said profit
would decline by half. Repeatedly. That's not the news. The
revenue "miss?" I would certainly would've liked to see
another $50 million in revenue. But that wasn't worth the
billion in market cap sliced off the company after the news.

Here's the rub on Lucent: It's taking share and kicking
butt in wireless. Wireless is the future. In the meantime,
its land-line business isn't so hot. Understood. Lucent
will be the ultimate winner in wireless, which is where I
want to be. So I am sticking with Lucent and will buy more
when it is below my cost basis.

Wednesday's action was an overreaction. But at $3.42, the
stock isn't yet at a level where it helps me to buy more.
So I wait. You should, too.

Regards,

James J. Cramer