Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

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8:30am 01/18/05 U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE PRICES RECEIVED RECORD HIGH 27.7
8:30am 01/18/05 U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE EMPLOYMENT 12.7 VS.15.7 IN DEC
8:30am 01/18/05 U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE INDEX BELOW CONSENSUS 25.3
8:30am 01/18/05 U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 20.1 VS. REV 27.1 IN DEC.

ECONOMIC REPORT: Factory activity slows in New York; Index: Optimism over six-month outlook also dampened
By Gregory Robb, CBS Marketwatch.com
Last Update: 9:22 AM ET Jan. 18, 2005

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area expanded at a slower pace in January, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Tuesday.

The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index fell to 20.1 in January from a revised 27.1 reading in December. The index was initially reported as 29.9 in December.

The January reading was lower than expected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists had been for the Empire State index to fall to 25.3.

The Empire State index is of interest to traders primarily because it's seen as an early indicator of what the national Institute for Supply Management survey due out in two weeks will show. In December, the ISM rose to 58.6 percent.

Economists were not too concerned with the decline. They noted that the index had jumped from 19.8 in November to 27.1 in December.

"The December survey was inexplicably strong; we therefore view the softening in both the headline and most of the sub-indexes in January as nothing more than a correction. It almost certainly does not signal a decline in the ISM manufacturing survey," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

The employment index fell to 12.7 in January from 15.7 in December.

But the workweek rose to 16.7 in January from 2.86 in December. This is the highest level since September.

The new orders index fell sharply to 21.0 in January from 36.1 in December, while shipments fell to 26.2 from 35.6.

Inventories fell to a minus 10.9 in January from 1.92 in December. This is the lowest level since Oct. 2003.

The prices paid index fell to 50.4 from 57.7 in December.

The prices received index rose to a record 27.7 from 15.4 in the previous month.

"This suggests that firms may finally be having better luck passing their higher input costs through to their customers," said Steve Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

Optimism about the next six months also fell in January. The future general business conditions index fell to 42.2 in January from 47.0 in the previous month.

[TRSM]

Dados EUA : Empire Manufacturing : 20.08 (Est.25.00)

LJ Carregosa SA