Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

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algo em atraso.. mas aqui fica um apanhado dos dados da 1:30

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. NONSTORE RETAIL SALES UP 1.9%
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. CLOTHING STORE SALES FALL 0.6%
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. 2004 RETAIL SALES UP 8%, BEST SINCE 1999
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. RETAIL SALES UP 8.7% YEAR-OVER-YEAR
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORE SALES UP 0.7%
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. AUTO SALES UP 4.3%; GASOLINE SALES DOWN 2%
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. EX-AUTO RETAIL SALES UP 0.3% AS EXPECTED
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. RETAIL SALES UP 1.2% VS. 0.9% EXPECTED

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 10,000 TO 367,000
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. 4-WK AVERAGE JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 12,750 TO 344,000
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. CONTINUING CLAIMS DOWN 219,000 TO 2.63 MLN
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. CONTINUING CLAIMS AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE APRIL 2001

8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. IMPORT PRICES DOWN 1.3%
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. OIL IMPORT PRICES DOWN 11.5%
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. NON-OIL IMPORT PRICES UP 0.5%
8:30am 01/13/05 U.S. DEC. IMPORT PRICE DROP IS SHARPEST SINCE APR. 2003

ECONOMIC REPORT: December import prices fall on oil's drop
By Corbett B. Daly, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 9:54 AM ET Jan. 13, 2005

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Reflecting a sharp drop in the price of oil, the nation's overall prices for imported goods fell at the sharpest rate in nearly two years in December, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The prices of goods imported into the United States fell by 1.3 percent last month, while non-oil import prices rose 0.5 percent. Prices of imported oil plunged 11.5 percent after falling by a revised 5.7 percent in November, the department said.

Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had been expecting overall prices to drop 0.4 percent for December.

The decline in oil prices marked the sharpest drop since April 2003. Still, oil import prices have risen 30.8 percent over the past 12 months, while non-oil import prices have risen 3.8 percent -- the largest yearly increase in nearly a decade.

"With year-over-year nonpetroleum import price inflation the highest in over nine years, this report provides further evidence of rising core inflation pressures," said John Ryding, economist at Bear Stearns.

The dollar was little moved after the data, maintaining slight gains against the euro and Japan's yen. Read the full story.

"If the greenback continues its weakening trend, it is therefore likely that non-fuel import price increases will accelerate somewhat. On the other hand, dollar stabilization will tend to remove upward pressure from core import prices," said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist of MFR Inc.

Overall import prices increased at a 6.9 percent clip for 2004.

Overall export prices rose 0.2 percent in December, putting their 12 month increase at 4.1 percent.

Agricultural export prices rose 0.2 percent last month, though agricultural export prices have fallen 5 percent for the year.

Prices of imported industrial materials fell 4.8 percent in December, the largest monthly decline since April 2003, while last month's non-petroleum supplies saw their prices rise 1.3 percent.

Prices of industrial materials rose by 22.8 percent in 2004.

Prices of imported autos rose 0.2 percent in December, the 14th consecutive month without a decline. Imported auto prices were 2.1 percent for the year.

Imported capital goods and consumer goods each rose 0.3 percent in the month. The rise in consumer-goods prices represented the largest increase since January, while the capital-goods price rise was only the second in 11 months, according to the Labor Department's data.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said the number of people filing for state unemployment insurance benefits for the first time rose 10,000 last week, reaching 367,000.

Also Thursday, the Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 1.2 percent in December, led by a big jump in autos.


ECONOMIC REPORT: U.S. retail sales jump 1.2% in December; Sales excluding autos rises moderate 0.3%
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 9:58 AM ET Jan. 13, 2005

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Led by a big jump in autos, U.S. retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 1.2 percent in December, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.

But excluding the 4.3 percent rise in auto sales, retail sales closed out 2004 with a monthly gain of 0.3 percent.

The total sales figure was slightly ahead of expectations calling for a December increase of 0.9 percent, while the ex-autos figure came in as expected, according to the survey of economists conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

It was the biggest growth in U.S. retail sales since September's 1.6 percent. On a year-over-year basis, sales were up 8.7 percent from December 2003.

Sales in 2004 thus grew 8 percent from 2003, marking the biggest annual increase since 1999.

Many retailers, especially auto dealers, have said they reduced prices in December to maintain good top-line growth after the Christmas shopping season started slowly.

U.S. retail sales in the fourth quarter were up 8.2 percent from the same quarter a year ago. The sales increase in October was revised higher by 0.2 percentage points, to 1 percent, while the November sales gain was an unrevised 0.1 percent.

In November, ex-auto sales increased 0.4 percent.

Retail sales account for about a third of total U.S. gross domestic product and about half of consumer spending.

"Consumer spending will be a solid contributor" to growth in the fourth quarter, growing at about a 4 percent annualized rate, said Joshua Shapiro, chief economist for MFR.

Also Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state jobless benefits rose by 10,000 last week to 367,000, while the more informative four-week average of new claims rose by 12,750 to 344,000.

And U.S. import prices fell 1.3 percent in December as imported oil prices sank 11.5 percent, the Labor Department said in a separate report.


Strength in durables

During December, sales of durable goods were generally stronger than sales of nondurable goods.

With the 4.3 percent gain in December, auto sales rose 8.9 percent in the past 12 months.

Furniture sales rose 2.2 percent in December, while building material and hardware store sales gained 1.2 percent. Sales at electronics and appliance stores fell 0.2 percent.

Sales at general merchandise stores increased 0.7 percent, including a 0.2 percent gain at department stores.

Results at other retailers were mixed. Clothing store sales fell 0.6 percent, while leisure-time goods rose 0.9 percent. Sales at nonstore retailers such as catalogs and online stores jumped 1.9 percent.

Sales at health-care and personal-care stores increased 0.2 percent.

Food stores' sales rose 0.4 percent, while sales at restaurants and bars gained 0.5 percent.

Sales at gasoline stations fell 2 percent last month as the price of gasoline declined. But year over year, gasoline sales were up 21.8 percent.

Total sales excluding gasoline rose 1.5 percent. Sales excluding both autos and gasoline increased 0.6 percent in December.

In the fourth quarter, core sales rose at a 7.4 percent annualized rate, marking the best performance since the first quarter, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for High Frequency Economics.

"Provided January holds up -- surveys suggest so far, so good -- the overall holiday season will have been pretty good," he said.


ECONOMIC REPORT: Initial jobless claims rise to 367,000
By Corbett B. Daly, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:15 AM ET Jan. 13, 2005

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time rose by 10,000 to 367,000 last week, the highest since September, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The less volatile, more informative four-week moving average of new claims rose 12,750 to 344,000, the department said. Economists polled by CBS MarketWatch had expected first-time claims to fall to 339,000. See the economic calendar.

The number of former workers collecting unemployment checks plunged 219,000 to 2.63 million in the week ended Jan. 1, the lowest level since April 2001. It's the sharpest drop since August 1992. Read the full report.

The four-week average of continuing claims fell by 26,250 to 2.75 million, the lowest since the week ended Dec. 11.

The insured unemployment rate -- the percentage of all covered workers who are receiving benefits -- fell by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1 percent.

A Labor Department spokesman cautioned against reading too much into the data, since spikes in the numbers are expected this time of year are expected. Seasonal adjustment problems plague the weekly data around the holidays, when thousands of workers are hired for temporary jobs and are then let go. The timing of the hiring and firing can warp the weekly data.

"These data must also be taken with a grain of salt, given the time of year," said Michelle Girard, economist at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets.

Robert Brusca of FAO Economics said economist who follow labor trends are "back to not knowing" what the overall employment trend is after several months of steadily declining jobless claims.

"It is hard to tell what this signal means coming at this volatile time of year and after December claims had made a good run at establishing a lower trend," Brusca said.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said Thursday that overall prices for imported goods fell at the sharpest rate in nearly two years in December.

And separately, the Commerce Department said Thursday U.S. retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 1.2 percent in December.