Conheça a estranha oferta de um fundo britânico que exigia 50 milhões aos acionistas da Inapa

[MarcoAntonio]

Previsor, as casas de apostas não apontam para percentagens de voto mas probabilidades de vitória e probabilidades e percentagem de voto são coisas bem diferentes. Estas percentagens de voto dão uma probabilidades de vitória (bastante) maior ao Trump, conforme já expliquei. Na verdade, as duas coisas são consistentes uma com a outra.

Biden debate performance is ‘nightmare’ for Democrats

If there was one thing Democrats wanted to see on display from President Biden at Thursday night’s debate, it was strength.

They wanted to see Biden pummel former President Trump on the Jan. 6 insurrection, on overturning Roe v. Wade. They wanted him to knock Trump down with the “convicted felon” moniker.

Instead, most Democrats acknowledged Thursday, it was Biden who was knocked down.

Hard.

His voice was hoarse. His lips quivered. After the debate began, the White House said he had a cold.

He tripped over his words. At times he veered off topic and in the wrong direction. During one moment, Biden declared, “We finally beat Medicare,” and went off course about earned benefits.

“This is an honest-to-God nightmare,” said one Biden ally. “I can’t believe what I’m watching. I am watching us lose this election in slow motion.”

Another Democratic strategist put it this way: “Political suicide.”

One Democrat resorted to gallows humor in a dark moment: “I wish Jamaal Bowman was around to pull the fire alarm,” this source said about the congressman from New York.

Not only did Biden not hold Trump accountable, Democrats acknowledged, but Biden stood by and watched as Trump spouted untruths on abortion and the COVID-19 pandemic. And when Trump continued to slam Biden as “the worst president in the history of our country,” Biden looked back “almost bewildered,” as one Democrat put it.

“There are no two ways about it. That was not a good debate for Joe Biden,” Kate Bedingfield, who served as Biden’s longtime communications aide, said on CNN following the debate.

“It’s the one night that confirmed people’s fears,” David Axelrod, who served as a senior adviser, said on the same CNN panel.

As the debate wore on Democrats grew increasingly anxious — some wondering if it was too late for Biden to drop out. They had thoughts about other candidates, too.

“There’s been a lot of chatter in our circles about Newsom,” one Democratic strategist said about California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

One House Democratic member from a swing state put it this way: “This was a disaster. Biden’s team needs to convince him to withdraw and have an open convention.”

One Democratic donor was also incensed after watching the debate.

“We need to have a real discussion about how this is going,” one Democratic donor said. “We can’t pussyfoot around this discussion of age anymore. We have to get serious. There is so much on the line here and what the f‑‑‑ are we doing?”

Biden campaign spokesman Seth Schuster said of the president, “of course he’s not dropping out.”

During the debate, Biden did try to hit back at Trump at times. “You are a child,” he said at one point. And during another moment, he called Trump out on his weight.

He also called him a sore loser, pointing to the former president’s loss in 2020.

“You can’t stand loss,” Biden said. “Something snapped in you when you lost last time.”

One longtime Biden ally said the president had gotten “a little better” as the night went on. “Trump’s relationship with the truth is really something.”

There was also plenty of frustration with CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, who did little to fact-check Trump in real time.

But mostly, Democrats were incensed and worried about the coming weeks. After the debate, Biden appeared at a watch party alongside first lady Jill Biden. And some Democrats were anxious for Biden to move forward.

On Friday afternoon, the president will hold a campaign event in North Carolina, before heading to three separate fundraisers this weekend in New York and New Jersey.

For now, they desperately want to forget this night happened.

“We lost tonight,” one Democrat said, referring to the race, not the debate.

The Hill

[previsor]

Vamos ver se o trump descola nas sondagens depois do primeiro debate.

Não sei se as casas de apostas costumam acertar no resultado a esta distância. Parece haver uma grande diferença entre as casas de apostas e as sondagens. Nas sondagens a diferença é pequena


Biden vs. Trump polls
Trump has a 0.8% lead based on 758 polls.
Jun 28, 2024

Trump
44.7%
Biden
43.9%
https://elections2024.thehill.com/natio ... p-general/

[BearManBull]

Pessoalmente dentro do mal até acho que o Biden tinha um discurso mais coerente pelo menos tentava responder ás perguntas.

Mas para além de brain freezes teve múltiplas ocasiões que disse algumas frases copmpletamente absurdas.

Look, there’s so many young women who have been – including a young woman who just was murdered and he – he went to the funeral. The idea that she was murdered by a – by –by an immigrant coming in, and they talk about that. But here’s the deal, there’s a lot of young women who are being raped by their – by their in-laws, by their – by their spouses, brothers and sisters, by – just – it’s just – it’s just ridiculous. And they can do nothing about it.

O Trump como sempre a não responder a praticamente nada do que era perguntado no exemplo em baixo é inacreditável que tenha dado esta resposta quando ele próprio trabalhou num plano no sentido da solução de 2 estados.

BASH: President Trump, just a follow-up, would you support the creation of an independent Palestinian state in order to achieve peace in the region?

TRUMP: I’d have to see. But, before we do that, the problem we have is that we spend all the money. So, they kill us on trade. I made great trade deals with the European nations, because if you add them up, they’re about the same size economically. Their economy is about the same size as the United States. And they were with (ph) no cars. No. They don’t want anything that we have. But, we’re supposed to take their cars, their food, their everything, their agriculture. I changed that.

But, the big thing I changed is they don’t want to pay. And the only reason that he can play games with NATO is because I got them to put up hundreds of billions of dollars. I said, and he is right about this, I said, no, I’m not going to support NATO if you don’t pay. They asked me that question. Would you guard us against Russia at a very secret meeting of the 28 states at that time, nations at that time? And they said, no, if you don’t pay, I won’t do that. And you know what happened? Billions and billions of dollars came flowing in the next day and the next months. But now, we’re in the same position. We’re paying everybody’s bills.

Nesta deixa o Biden até esteve bem.

How many billions of dollars do you owe in civil penalties for molesting a woman in public, for doing a whole range of things, of having sex with a porn star on the night – and while your wife was pregnant?

I mean, what are you talking about? You have the morals of an alley cat.

O Tump também cospe muito gibberish mas ele tem um método que parece ser de alguém simplesmente imbecil mas que não está senil. De certa forma tem razão as taxas de concentração de CO2 continuaram a subir com Biden ou seja o "ar está mais sujo". Claro que nada disto deve mudar até que exista una disrupção tecnológica real ou com a adopção massiva de energia nuclear.

TRUMP: So, I want absolutely immaculate clean water and I want absolutely clean air, and we had it. We had H2O. We had the best numbers ever. And we did – we were using all forms of energy, all forms, everything. And yet, during my four years, I had the best environmental numbers ever. And my top environmental people gave me that statistic just before I walked on the stage, actually.

O Biden com taxas de inflação maiores de 10% provocou um aumento oculto de impostos indiscriminado o que contraria completamente o que ele alega.

BIDEN: Look, the fact of the matter is that he’s dead wrong about it. He’s increased the tariff – he’s increased – he will increase the taxes on middle class people. I said I’d never raise a tax on anybody making less than $400,000. I didn’t.

E depois temos momentos completamente surreais...

President Biden?

BIDEN: You’re going to see he’s six-foot-five and only 225 pounds – or 235 pounds.

TRUMP: (inaudible).

BIDEN: Well, you said six-four, 200.

TRUMP: (inaudible).

BIDEN: Well, anyway, that’s – anyway, just take a look at what he says he is and take a look at what he is.

Look, I’d be happy to have a driving contest with him. I got my handicap, which, when I was vice president, down to a 6.

And by the way, I told you before I’m happy to play golf if you carry your own bag. Think you can do it?

TRUMP: That’s the biggest lie that he’s a 6 handicap, of all.

BIDEN: I was 8 handicap.

TRUMP: Yeah.

BIDEN: Eight, but I have – you know how many…

TRUMP: I’ve seen your swing, I know your swing.

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: President Trump, we’re going to…

(CROSSTALK)

TRUMP: Let’s not act like children.

BIDEN: You are a child.

[MarcoAntonio]

Bom, começam aí as reacções, parece que acordaram para a realidade. E as odds continuam a despenhar-se...

53.1% - Trump (R) ---> 55.5%
31.6% - Biden (D) ---> 17.8%
3.0% - Newsom (D) ---> 10.3%
3.2% - Obama (D) ---> 3.9%
1.2% - Harris (D) ---> 3.3%

Democrats suggest ‘chatter’ on Biden stepping aside amid ‘panic’ over debate

Democratic operatives and political pundits suggested on Thursday that there are conversations happening about President Biden stepping aside before November’s election after a debate performance some called “dismal,” panicking some of his closest allies.

That revelation came in the moments after Biden wrapped up a CNN debate with former President Trump, a performance that was panned for his voice appearing hoarse, which the White House attributed to a cold, and garbling answers on questions relating to key issues for Democrats.

CNN’s John King kicked off the network’s political analysis of the event with this stark assessment: “This was a game changing debate in the sense that right now as we speak, there is a deep, a wide and a very aggressive panic in the Democratic Party.”

David Axelrod, a senior adviser to former President Obama who joined King on a roundtable, said the party was experiencing “shock.”

“I think there was a sense of shock, actually, at how he came out at the beginning of this debate. How his voice sounded. He seemed a bit disoriented. He did get stronger as the debate went on,” Axelrod said. “I think you’re going to hear discussions that I don’t know will lead to anything but there are going to be discussions about whether he should continue.”

Vice President Kamala Harris acknowledged later in a CNN interview with Anderson Cooper than Biden was off to a “slow start” but fought through a testy exchange to defend Biden on substance and policy.

A Biden adviser defended the president when asked about conversations about him stepping aside.

“President Biden is the only person who has ever beaten Donald Trump. He will do it again. Donald Trump did not give voters any reason to vote for him tonight. On the issues, the American people are with Joe Biden,” the adviser said.

But the debate left the political world shook, with some pundits on left-leaning MSNBC taking the time to describe what procedures would be required to replace Biden at the Democratic National Convention.

Back on CNN, Van Jones, who worked as a special adviser for Obama, gave a haunting assessment in which he lauded Biden but acknowledged the personal “pain” some might feel about the notion of asking the president to step aside.

“I think there’s a lot of people who are going to want to see him consider taking a different course now. We’re still far from our convention and there is time for this party to figure out a different way forward, if he will allow us to do that. But that was not what we needed from Joe Biden and it’s personally painful for a lot of people, it’s not just panic, its pain of what we saw tonight.”

King, meanwhile, said some conversations he’d heard about involved going to the White House.

“They’re having conversations about the president’s performance, which they think was dismal, which they think will hurt other people down the party in the ticket, and they’re having conversations about what they should do about it,” King said. “Some of those conversations include should we go to the White House and ask the president to step aside? Other… conversations are about should prominent Democrats go public with that call because they feel this debate was so terrible.”

He added that elected officials are among some of the Democrats who are asking “what do we do about this” after Biden’s performance, calling it a problem for the party.

Jen Psaki, who served as Biden’s first White House press secretary, said on MSNBC that “chatter is happening” not from campaign operatives but from Democratic lawmakers and outside operatives.

“The chatter is very distracting and it’s going to be very consuming for the campaign. Should he be replaced? They’re going to be answering that question instead of breaking through on attacking Trump,” she said.

“Is that chatter the same chatter… in two weeks when Trump is sentenced and Joe Biden goes out and has a strong couple of weeks? It may not be. But it is incumbent upon the campaign to now dig out of this hole,” she added.

Former Biden White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said on CNN that Biden failed to assuage concerns voters have had for months when it comes to Biden’s age and whether he could win reelection and be up for the job of president for another four years.

“It was a really disappointing debate performance from Joe Biden,” she said. “His biggest issue that he had to prove to the American people was that he has the energy and the stamina, and he didn’t do that. And so, I think that is a concern.”

Following the debate, Biden spoke to a room of supporters at a watch party in Atlanta alongside first lady Jill Biden, where he gave a much more energetic performance in brief remarks to a crowd. That prompted MSNBC Rachel Maddow, who also assessed Biden’s performance poorly, to declare: “That Joe Biden would’ve killed in that debate.”

The Hill

Dems freak out over Biden’s debate performance: ‘Biden is toast’

One prominent operative texted, “Time for an open convention.”


President Joe Biden opened the debate with a raspy voice and disjointed, rambling answers, reigniting Democratic concerns about his age and ability to take on former President Donald Trump.

Many of the president’s answers were hard to follow. At one point, seemingly losing his train of thought, Biden said “we finally beat Medicare,” misspeaking about his own policy on earned benefits.

In text messages with POLITICO, Democrats expressed confusion and concern as they watched the first minutes of the event. One former Biden White House and campaign aide called it “terrible,” adding that they have had to ask themselves over and over “What did he just say? This is crazy.”

Another veteran Democratic operative texted, “Biden seems to have needed a few minutes to warm up. I wonder if the lack of an audience was the right decision. And poor guy needs a tea. Maybe a whiskey.”

Jay Surdukowski, an attorney and Democratic activist from New Hampshire who co-chaired Martin O’Malley’s 2016 presidential campaign in the state, said, “Biden is toast — calling it now.”

Biden’s rambling answers provided Trump multiple opportunities to jump in with retorts. At one point, after an answer ostensibly on immigration, Trump said, “I don’t know what he said at the end there. I don’t think he knows what he said.”

The president’s performance was widely panned online and will likely reinforce the impression that he’s lost a step. The 81-year-old president’s age has long been a liability, with poll after poll showing even many Democrats concerned about his age.

Biden aides and allies had hoped the on-stage split screen between the two men would help to focus voters’ attention on the race. But during the debate, many Democrats have begun to doubt that strategy would actually work out in Biden’s favor.

A person familiar with Biden’s health claimed that his performance is due to a cold. But the president’s team hadn’t mentioned that to reporters until Biden began to answer questions in the debate.

One prominent operative texted, “Time for an open convention.”

Politico

[MarcoAntonio]

Suficientemente mau (sem ter sido um completo desastre para os Democratas, só porque o início sugeriu que ia ser ainda pior).

Trump ganhou por larga margem.

53.1% - Trump (R) ---> 55.4%
31.6% - Biden (D) ---> 20.5%
3.0% - Newsom (D) ---> 9.0%
3.2% - Obama (D) ---> 4.0%
1.2% - Harris (D) ---> 2.5%

Os primeiros comentários é que os Democratas estão preocupados.

Imagine-se...

A conversa sobre uma alternativa vai aumentar.

[BearManBull]

Até parece que recuperou a postura mas aqueles momentos iniciais foram um desastre.


Esta pergunta da CNN não tem pés nem cabeça.

"Quem votar Trump vota contra a democracia?"


Um debate agoniante na minha opinião. O jornalista devia era perguntar "como é que a democracia desceu a um nível tão baixo para ter estes completos imbecis à minha frente?"




Bem Biden começa em grande a segunda parte...

[MarcoAntonio]

O debate ainda a decorrer, as probabilidades cairam tremendamente com base nas odds na Betfair.

Não estou a ver como ele pode ter alguma hipotese de virar o debate.


Comparando com poucas horas antes do debate:

53.1% - Trump (R) ---> 58%
31.6% - Biden (D) ---> 20%
3.2% - Obama (D) ---> 5.3%
3.0% - Newsom (D) ---> 6.2%

[MarcoAntonio]

Primeiro momento do debate, Biden perde o "train of thought" e deixa a frase meia por terminar, numa embrulhada que não se percebe.

[BearManBull]

Até dá pena ver...

O Trump está bastante fiel a si mesmo, mas o Biden salvo pelos jornalistas que estão literalmente a cortar-lhe a palavra...

[BearManBull]

No que toca divida Trump teve uma nota inferior a Biden se bem que um aumentou impostos e o outro foi literalmente obrigado a governar um país desligado.

Mesmo assim Biden chega ás presidenciais com a divida a subir a uma velocidade considerável novamente.

[BearManBull]

Durante o período de Trump o preço das casas permaneceu praticamente inalterado.

Com Biden subiu mais de 50%.

Quem procura casa tem alguma duvida na hora de votar? Só se for fanático...

[BearManBull]

enquanto o do Trump tem um apoio mais fanático

Sim os miúdos que apoiam o terrorismo e que nem saber distinguir um homem de uma mulher são os que votam Trump



Bem deixo um gráfico interessante que mostra que os valores do desemprego já estão acima dos valores da pré pandemia. Isto apesar da inflação continuar descontrolada (bastante acima do máximo de 2%).

Nota que se prevê que AI pode começar a ter impacto mais percetível nos próximos anos. Existe una grande probabilidade que o próximo presidente vai enfrentar um mercado laboral bem mais complicado.

[previsor]

Acho que estar quase empatado nas sondagens pode ser encorajador para o Biden, pois apesar de parecer visivelmente mais debilitado do que o Trump, apesar de terem menos de 4 anos de diferença, talvez na idade que eles têm isso se note mais, consegue ainda estar empatado e acho possivel que o eleitorado do Biden tenha mais vergonha de admitir que vota nele nas sondagens, enquanto o do Trump tem um apoio mais fanático e nao deverá acontecer isso.


0.5%
https://www.270towin.com/2024-president ... ion-polls/

[MarcoAntonio]

Parecem próximos em agregadores de sondagens

Diferenças entre eles:

O,2%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/

1%
https://www.economist.com/interactive/u ... iden-polls

2,6%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/

Estes valores significam basicamente uma derrota para o Biden. Não lhe basta ganhar o voto popular por uma margem mínima.

Em 2020 ganhou por quase 5% e, no entanto, algumas dezenas de milhares de votos aqui e acolá podiam ter-lhe retirado a presidência. Em 2016 a Hilary ganhou por 2.1% e perdeu a presidência por larga margem (304-227). O voto popular não dá a vitória, o colégio eleitoral dá a vitória. O colégio eleitoral tende a favorecer, nos dias de hoje, fortemente os republicanos numa corrida renhida como estas.


Hoje, pode recuperar um bocadinho ou afundar de vez. E não há volta a dar, o homem está (bastante) desgastado - outra palavra é velho - e isso é uma preocupação enorme para os americanos. E cada dia que passa só torna a coisa pior. É que para mais jovem não se anda. Vamos ver, podem ocorrer outras coisas. Mas a pressão está do lado do Biden neste momento.

[previsor]

Parecem próximos em agregadores de sondagens

Diferenças entre eles:

O,2%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/

0%
https://www.economist.com/interactive/u ... iden-polls

2,6%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/

[MarcoAntonio]

Poucas horas antes do debate:

53.1% - Trump (R)
31.6% - Biden (D)
3.2% - Obama (D)
3.0% - Newsom (D)
1.2% - Harris (D)
1.0% - Kennedy (I)
0.6% - Clinton (D)
0.5% - Haley (R)
0.4% - Whitmer (D)
0.3% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.0% - Outros

Probabilidades inferidas a partir das odds da betfair (exchange). Nota: os valores não dizem respeito a percentagem de voto.[/quote]

[MarcoAntonio]

Na véspera do debate:

51.7% - Trump (R)
32.1% - Biden (D)
3.2% - Newsom (D)
3.2% - Obama (D)
1.3% - Harris (D)
1.1% - Kennedy (I)
0.8% - Clinton (D)
0.5% - Haley (R)
0.4% - Whitmer (D)
0.4% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.0% - Outros

Probabilidades inferidas a partir das odds da betfair (exchange). Nota: os valores não dizem respeito a percentagem de voto.

[MVP]

Da forma que vejo, os democratas podem substituir Biden e tentar lutar pela eleição ou resignarem-se a mais 4 anos Trump e possivelmente mais 12 Republicanos assim que DeSantis seja o porta estandarte dos MAGA. Até porque a atual Vice Presidente, Kamala Harris, não é mais popular que Biden e que seja vista como uma alternativa, pelo contrário consegue ser menos popular que ele. Todo o processo dos Democratas está a bater no fundo.

[MarcoAntonio]

Que "malucos"...

Exasperated Democrats try to stamp out talk of replacing Biden

Senate Democrats are feeling exasperated by their inability to stamp out persistent speculation that party leaders have a plan B to replace President Biden atop the Democratic ticket due to concerns about his age and weak poll numbers.

They’re tired of hearing about the hand-wringing of Democratic voters and donors over Biden’s age and electability and sick of reading about Rube Goldberg-like schemes, some of them pushed by Republicans or conservative media, to shake up the Democratic ticket.

One Democratic senator feigned putting a make-believe pistol to their temple when asked about the prospect of yanking Biden off the ticket before the Democratic National Convention in August or the general election in November.

The senator, who requested anonymity, said stories about replacing Biden on the ticket sound “juicy” but are nothing more than a sign that political pundits have “too much time on their hands.”

“There’s no way in hell that’s true. Not a chance in hell that’s true,” the lawmaker insisted. “I don’t know what to say.”

The senator said Biden has seen a small bump in the polls since a Manhattan jury convicted former President Trump on 34 felony charges of falsifying business records.

“The latest national [poll] has him at 50 [percent]. I think that’s real,” the senator added.

Biden and Trump are tied at 40 percent in a head-to-head match-up, according to the latest analysis of recent national polls by FiveThirtyEight, but Trump previously had a small lead over the president for months.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said stories about Biden dropping off the ticket this summer or fall are simply “bizarre.”

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) also poured cold water on the speculation.

“I’ve heard no credible plan B, and I’m not counting on a plan B,” he said.

The Democratic senator said Thursday’s debate between Biden and Trump “will be a really critical point” in the campaign and would set the trajectory of the race.

“All of the questions that people are asking right now will have different answers after this debate,” he said. “At the end of the day, it’s going to be a choice between the two of them. I think Biden is so much sharper, quicker, knowledgeable than even Democrats give him credit for.

“We all have moments when we can’t remember a name, but that’s not what’s important about being president of the United States,” he said. “I don’t have a plan B; I’m not looking for a plan B.”

Democratic senators have insisted for months that Biden will be their nominee for president in November, and they feel confident he will beat Trump in the general election.

But that hasn’t stopped speculation from bubbling up in the media that there could be a last-minute overhaul of the ticket.

One Democratic fundraising consultant said Democratic strategists and donors sometimes ask whether Biden will still be the party’s nominee for president in November, but the conversation usually fizzles out pretty quickly.

“If people mention that, if it’s talked about in settings, even if somebody says we need to have an alternative, it’s not really taken as something that seriously could happen,” the strategist said.

“You’re in a conversation with somebody, somebody says, ‘Do we have a backup?’ Something like that. Because, honestly, [Vice President] Harris is not really seen as ready for prime time,” the source added.

The Democratic consultant said there’s “zero” chance of replacing Biden.

Business Insider earlier this month published a list of the “7 Democrats who could replace Biden if he drops his 2024 reelection bid.”

That was followed by “Fox and Friends” co-host Brian Kilmeade asking Democratic Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, who was one of the names on Business Insider’s list, in an interview Wednesday if he would be ready to replace Biden. Moore quickly waved away the theory and declared Biden “the best candidate for the presidency.”

Politico published a piece Thursday reporting that Democratic voters are enthusiastic about Democratic candidates but not about Biden, citing it as “another ominous sign for the president.”

Politico Magazine published an analysis in February warning “Democrats might need a Plan B” and offering possible scenarios.

Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant for former Presidents Reagan and George H.W. Bush, wrote an op-ed for The Hill last month declaring, “Democrats can still jettison Biden as an ‘August Surprise.’

The Boston Herald reported this week that “a number of Democratic consultants are speculating that top party officials could be very quietly looking to remove Biden from the ticket before the convention and find a younger, more dynamic leader” such as Michelle Obama.

The paper asked if Hillary Clinton, who’s kept her name in the news, might be “paving the way for Democrats to pick her as the presidential nominee.”

British journalist Piers Morgan hosted a lengthy panel discussion on his show “Piers Morgan Uncensored” about replacing Biden atop the ticket after airing clips of Biden seeming confused during a fundraising event in Los Angeles with former President Obama.

The White House later slammed the video clip as selectively edited “misinformation” to make the president look bad, while Trump shared it on his media platform, Truth Social, with the comment, “Is this really who you want to be your President?”

The media speculation about Biden dropping off the ticket has been fueled by polls showing that a majority of voters think he’s too old to be an effective president.

A New York Times/Siena College survey of voters nationwide published in March found that 73 percent of voters thinks that, including 61 percent of voters who backed Biden in 2020.

Kathleen Parker, a columnist for The Washington Post, this month suggested that Democrats could address voters’ concerns about Biden’s age by replacing Harris with former secretary of State and first lady Hillary Clinton, the party’s 2016 nominee.

“Biden’s steady decline the past few years — his stumbles, his search for words, his occasional blank stare — have been impossible to ignore,” she wrote.

She argued Harris is a “significant obstacle” to Biden because independents and disenchanted Republicans might swing for Biden if it weren’t for the prospect of a President Harris.”

Durbin, the Senate’s No. 2 Democratic leader, however, panned the idea of Clinton running for president or vice president as implausible.

“No, I don’t think she’s likely to run again,” he said.

Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) acknowledged Democratic voters are alarmed over polls showing Trump has a solid chance of beating Biden in the fall.

“Everyone’s seen the polls and I think people are so alarmed that we could elect someone who’s kind of revealed themselves to be a demagogue,” he said, referring to Trump.

“Maybe he’ll only be a dictator for a day … but he’s revealed himself, and I think people are very, very concerned about that,” he said. “People look at those polls, and they’re nervous and anxious, but I don’t think there are any other alternative plans.”

The Hill

[MarcoAntonio]

Ligeira recuperação durante o fim de semana.

Parece-me que o pior que pode acontecer aos Democratas é o Biden safar-se no debate...

51.1% - Trump (R)
33.4% - Biden (D)
3.0% - Newsom (D)
2.8% - Obama (D)
1.2% - Harris (D)
1.1% - Kennedy (I)
0.8% - Clinton (D)
0.5% - Haley (R)
0.4% - Whitmer (D)
0.4% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.1% - Outros

Probabilidades inferidas a partir das odds da betfair (exchange). Nota: os valores não dizem respeito a percentagem de voto.

[MarcoAntonio]

A menos de uma semana do debate agendado, aqui fica a actualização. Biden recuperou ligeiramente nas polls e nas odds, mas continua a ser claramente o underdog quer nas odds, quer no mapa eleitoral baseado nas sondagens por estado.

51.9% - Trump (R)
32.2% - Biden (D)
3.2% - Obama (D)
2.8% - Newsom (D)
1.3% - Harris (D)
1.1% - Kennedy (I)
0.9% - Clinton (D)
0.5% - Haley (R)
0.4% - Whitmer (D)
0.4% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.1% - Outros

Probabilidades inferidas a partir das odds da betfair (exchange). Nota: os valores não dizem respeito a percentagem de voto.



Mapa indicativo.

[MarcoAntonio]

Uma peça interessante no FT que fala de alguns dos debates passados, possivelmente os poucos que foram decisivos e aqui e ali extrapola para o momento presente.

The mother of all US presidential debates

A set piece clash between Biden and Trump will turn less on policies than on each candidate’s manner and appearance

How do you run a debate between two men whose combined age is two-thirds that of the US republic? The answer is to have no audience, mute the one not talking and schedule bathroom breaks (calling them commercials). It would be an overstatement to say that next week’s clash between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be definitive. But in a close election in which each candidate’s mental capacity is under scrutiny, it will matter a lot.

Only three times in US history has a presidential debate arguably changed the outcome. In each case, however, they took place within weeks or days of the election. Biden pushed for a historically early date because so many Americans mail in their votes nowadays. In reality, his team wanted the earliest chance to break a polling deadlock that they assumed would have evaporated by now. The sooner Biden can quell doubts about his age and remind people of Trump’s character the better. That is the theory.

The past offers mixed messages. The first televised debates were between John F Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960. These would augur well for Trump. People who tuned in on their radios thought that Nixon had won. Those who watched it on TV went for Kennedy. The contrast between Nixon’s so-called five o’clock shadow and JFK’s radiant youthfulness mattered. Today’s equivalent would be to watch with the sound off. On that measure, Trump comes across as more vigorous. Kennedy won 34.2mn votes. Nixon won 34.1mn.

The other two election-deciding debates both involved Jimmy Carter. In 1976, a month before the election, Carter lured the sitting president, Gerald Ford, into a trap. He got Ford to deny there was Soviet domination of eastern Europe. This alienated swing state voters of Polish and Czech origin in a tight election where the electoral college margin boiled down to a few thousand votes in Ohio and Wisconsin. George Gallup called it “the most decisive moment in the campaign”. The actor Chevy Chase picked up on the gaffe in his Saturday Night Live impersonation of Ford. “Last year I visited the capital of Poland, and let me say from the outset that Milwaukee is a beautiful city,” said Chase’s Ford.

In 1980 Ronald Reagan’s genial presence quelled doubts that he was a fanatic on trigger alert with the USSR. Until that moment — a week before the election — Carter and Reagan’s numbers were neck and neck. All Reagan needed to do was to come across as sane. He won by a landslide. Examples two and three augur badly for Trump. He has no equal in his capacity to demean large groups of people. Past targets include women, people who serve in uniform, and those with close family suffering from addiction or disability. Though Trump can be funny, his character is decidedly un-reassuring.

On past performance, Biden ought to beat Trump. He was judged the winner in both their 2020 encounters. This was partly because Trump came across as obnoxious, notably about the waywardness of Biden’s son, Hunter. People liked it when Biden said, “Will you shut up, man?” Trump was heading for defeat anyway. He also lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016 on both the content and his predatory body language. He defeated Clinton in spite of that. The former FBI director James Comey can help explain why.

Yet Democrats would be lying if they said they will not have their hearts in their mouths when Biden takes the podium next Thursday. The mute test is probably outdated. A better one would be TikTok, or Instagram Reels, on which many Americans will get their exposure. In March, Biden gave an energetic State of the Union speech. Millions only saw the 15-second clip where he mangled the name of a murder victim. The perception gap between Americans who watched the speech and those who saw tiny snippets was vast. Biden is certain to produce a few clippable Bidenisms next week.

Are these the impressions on which the future of US democracy hinges? The dispiriting answer is maybe. The good news for Biden is that the rules mostly favour him. Trump feeds off live audiences and will have to adapt to silence. He will be inaudible when Biden is speaking. Biden would be negligent if he did not remind viewers that his opponent is a convicted felon.

It would be nice to think policy clashes will decide the debate. Even more than usual, however, what the candidates say will matter less than how each seems. Biden’s goal will be to ensure his age will be less of a talking point than Trump’s character. On paper his task is simple. In practice it is anything but.

FT

Da última vez, Biden "safou-se" nos debates. Agora, não o estou a ver a safar-se. Cá para mim, vai ser material para mais alguns videos...

[MarcoAntonio]

Bem, vou actualizar que elas não param de cair.

Em vésperas do debate, começa a espalhar-se uma descrença generalizada....

Para um incumbente, são valores mesmo muito baixos.

53.4% - Trump (R)
27.1% - Biden (D)
4.7% - Obama (D)
3.4% - Newsom (D)
1.7% - Harris (D)
1.4% - Kennedy (I)
1.4% - Clinton (D)
0.6% - Whitmer (D)
0.6% - Haley (R)
0.4% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.2% - Outros


Trump está à frente nas polls na generalidade dos toss-ups, ainda que muito marginalmente. E lidera algo confortavelmente em vários estados que têm sido renhidos.

[MarcoAntonio]

Continua o resvalanço, com Biden prestes a entrar na casa dos 20's.

E pronto, aí está. Biden está abaixo da fasquia dos 30% nas odds se tomarmos como referência a Betfair (exchange).

Especulo se, caso aparecesse nesta altura alguém (com alguma visibilidade nacional e afecto dos Democratas) a dizer expressamente que estava disponível para se candidatar, se não saltava imediatamente para a frente do Biden nas odds (mesmo antes de se ser oficialmente indicado pelo partido). Se repararmos, alternativas já reunem perto de uns 15% apesar da generalidade deles ter dito expressamente que não se ia candidatar.

Imagine-se agora que algum dizia que estava disponível....

53.9% - Trump (R)
28.6% - Biden (D)
3.6% - Obama (D)
3.3% - Newsom (D)
1.6% - Harris (D)
1.3% - Kennedy (I)
1.0% - Clinton (D)
0.5% - Whitmer (D)
0.5% - Haley (R)
0.3% - Ramaswamy (R)
---------------------------------------
5.2% - Outros

Probabilidades inferidas a partir das odds da betfair (exchange). Nota: os valores não dizem respeito a percentagem de voto.


O The Hill dá 59% para o Trump e 41% para os Democratas (nem dizem Biden, na capa) de forecast.

[MarcoAntonio]

Claro que isto resolvia-se tudo muito bem: com outro candidato. O homem está velho, é evidente. É a lei da vida. Está lento, é difícil de o entender (atrapalha-se literalmente a falar) e tem dificuldade em se movimentar. Tem mais de 80 anos e não está bem conservado, isso é evidente. O team biden acusa o outro lado de fazer ataques desperados. Pois também a mim me parece que eles estão desesperados agarrados a um candidato quando para a generalidade dos restantes (segundo as polls) não é pretendido e acham que está velho (leia-se, que a idade é um problema no caso dele).

Na minha opinião, repito, é desprestigiante. Se eu fosse americano, sentir-me-ia embaraçado. De ter um candidato assim e de ter o mesmo par de candidatos estes dois outra vez (segundo polls que já referi antes, mais de 60% dos americanos não quer realmente nenhum dos dois).



Curiosamente, no meio da conversa toda um dos jornalistas levanta esta questão mesmo do publico, que já se reflectiu várias vezes em polls. Não é segredo nenhum o que os americanos acham sobre o assunto:

Q The majorities of American voters who are telling pollsters repeatedly for years now that they have serious concerns about this President’s cognitive fitness are being misled by cheap fake videos? Is that what you’re telling us?

Há também uma peça recente que partilhei há dias sobre insiders que discutem episódios que se passam (alegadamente) em reuniões com ele na Casa Branca. Os videos acabam por ser acessórios. O problema tinha solução simples...