Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[mad cow bull]

Obrigado Alex01.
De facto o ano de 2004 não tem corrido bem ao Mohan, mas ao mesmo tempo ele consegue identificar muitas das inversões do mercado no curto / médio-prazo, que não consegue aproveitar no time-frame dele ( daytrading ).
Um abraço e sempre que possível deixa-nos o Mohan, estou convencido que deves ter muitos leitores.

[alex01]

mad cow bull

Peço desculpa não tenho postado aqui o Mohan por dois factores:

- Falta de tempo, infelizmente não posso dedicar o tempo que gostava

- Perda de interesse nos call's desde já há algum tempo. Esta metodologia funcionou em 2003/inicio 2004, este ano mudaram as condições subjacentes e o método não foi adaptado, deixou de funcionar. Enfim o ano de 2004 não está a ser fácil para ninguém, que diga os hedge fund managers.

Aqui vai o call de hoje atrasado:

Market Force: Bear/Neutral. Look for flat to higher opening and early higher prices to continue to be bearish for the market today.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Monday, December 6, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 10.60 Value Area
Range: 4.40 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,198.30
1,195.75-1,194.75 Sell Pivot
1,193.40
Open 1,190.50
Close 1,189.20
1,189.00
Low 1,187.70
1,185.25-1,186.25 Buy Pivot
1,181.20 Pit Bull MA

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, December 3, 2004:
S@1191.50/B@1194.50 -3.00.....

Optional Trade S@1194.00/B@1188.00 +6.00.......

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend.

We are coming into a slower period in the markets in the next 3 weeks leading up to Christmas on December 24. I am hopeful that we will stay fairly busy and volatile through this week and most of next week. Important Jewish holiday starts this week on the 8th.

We will be continuing with our briefings as regularly scheduled and mid next week we will be doing abbreviated commentary as things slow down and I look to take a little extra time off as I have not taken any off this entire year.

Friday was active but there were no solid intraday trends early. Later in the session we had a nice sell off from the Highs which we captured on our optional trade for those who stuck around and decided to trade later Friday.

Here are my Wrap Up comments from Friday's action.

"The market opened flat today near 1190.00 after being up near 1194-96 on the overnight Globex most of that session. Prices started pushing higher and reached 1198.50 and then staged a sharp sell off. The High 5 had appeared to be going negative and with our Day To Day Sequencing pattern looking for a sell off into the close we wanted to get short.

We got short at 1191.50 on a bounce off the lows and waited. The market was in an erratic mood and not giving an intraday pattern setup. Prices moved higher and we honored our mental stop at 1194.00 jumping out near 1194.50 for a -3.00 loss.

We stood aside for some time. Later in the session prices pulled back some and then moved towards 1194-95 again and I put out an Optional trade signal to go short at the 1194.00 area. Optional as it was Friday and the market was not trending. I had put out a post to use 1195.50 as a mental stop and look for 1188.00 to take profits.

The prices started coming down and then dropped quickly through the Hour One low at 1188.75 tapping 1187.75 on the low and filling our 1188.00 price for a +6.00 gain."

Today's Call & Briefing:
For today we are going to look for a similar pattern as Friday with the higher early prices being bearish for the market. We expect this pattern to continue IF the High 5 are NOT MEGA BULLISH.

If we see the prices gap up on the open and run up early but the High 5 are showing Mega Bullish readings then we could see the upward pattern continue and we would be looking for a bullish BreakOut Buy. Not expected for today.

We continue to expect the Bearish pattern to unfold with pressure on the downside. ESPECIALLY WITH PRICES HOLDING BELOW 1186.00

This 1186.00 number is important as this was the point where the Sell Mode returned to an aberration. When we get an aberration on a Sell Mode then we start to buy drops and look for higher prices. We had a run up to 1198.25 after this last aberration but today we could see the Sell Mode return with prices pressing back again below 1186.00.

RECOMMENDED TRADING SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: On a higher opening and early run up in prices we are expecting price reversals to occur. This would support the idea of a return to the Sell Mode below 1186.00. We would look for a Neutral to Bearish High 5 to support fading (selling) an early price rally today. If this occurs there is a good chance that prices could "hang up" until later in the session after the New York Lunch hour.

If we open higher and run up higher with the High 5 showing very Bullish or Mega Bullish readings then we could see another BreakOut to the upside and an attempt to retrace the move back to test 1198.00 again. We would look to short the Hour One High to get short if the market setups up for this.

With the latest bullish underlying Force it is possible to see this occur anytime. In fact, if today does NOT Sell Off from a higher, early move then we could see the prices hold 1186.00 and continue the higher move based on an aberration on the Sell Mode. In this case we would be looking to Buy the BreakOut or earlier with our Market Force Oscilator signals given in our daily Live Update Service.

Value Area: 1,189.00 - 1,193.40
1189.00 is current support and if we take that out fairly easily then we got 1186.00 as mentioned above being a key "line in the sand".

Right now on overnight Globex prices have been trading steadily in the 1189.00 area so 1186 could be easy to target near the opening. Watch for support there or to see prices drop through it and create a bearish atmosphere.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,185.25 - 1,186.25
Here we have the Buy Pivot Target right at the above mentioned resistance point. Running below this would take us to the next support level of 1181.00 (-4.25 stop/pivot). Below that things get much more bearish.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,195.75 - 1,194.75
On a run up to this area we are going to be watching carefully for signs on the MFO to sell. Do not directly sell this number but wait for the first hour to complete.

We never want to see too early on a Monday especially. Hitting this number early could pull back some but usually on Mondays, the most bullish day of the week, we see prices tend to push higher and hang near the highs. If they are going to sell off today usually we see this occur after some higher prices are maintained for a while.

I think psychologically this may have something to do with having to put on a good bullish show at the beginning of the week.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,181.20
Here we have the Pit Bull right at the exact stop/pivot on the Buy Pivot Target. In this way you can see the numbers that we use correlate exactly very frequently and those who have been with us a while know how accurate they are.

Let's see if the market shifts into a heavy Sell Mode today with a Mega Bearish High 5 and attempts to achieve this 1181 area. Could end up being a Mega Bearish day. We will just stay open and assume this bias if the High 5 and price numbers dictate that.

Pro Trader's Action
Today we are still looking for the prices to sell off on a higher opening and early push higher.

I've outlined our strategies pretty clearly above.

Overall we just want to keep an eye on this 1186.00 price area and be willing to be more bearish trading below that.

Good Luck in your trades today, hope we keep getting good volatility for next 8 sessions or so. I'll see you in the action. Mohan

[mad cow bull]

Que é feito do Alex01 e dos seus posts diários do Mohan ?