Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[Alfred E. Neuman]

Depois das valorizações exageradas em 2003, os semicondutores/tecnológicas corrigiram significativamente durante o ano de 2004, em vários casos para valores de há 2 anos atrás, eliminando em grande parte, ou na totalidade os ganhos verificados em 2003. Durante Agosto/Setembro assistiu-se a uma consolidação e á medida que nos aproximavamos do 4T, vários titulos despertaram e iniciram novamente um movimento ascendende.

Relativamente á IFX, esta continua o seu movimento de lateralização ( 8 - 8.75, a forçar uma LTd com origem em Abril 2004). Começou a mostar sinais de ruptura em alta ( http://www.caldeiraodebolsa.com/forum/v ... light=asml ), mas tratou-se de um falso alarme a desde então não tem tido noticias muito positivas (Morningstar - http://www.caldeiraodebolsa.com/forum/v ... hlight=ifx) e a mais recente, hoje:

11/24/04
Infineon cut to sell at Deutsche, DRAM oversupply cited (IFX, DE:623100, MU)

By Emily Church
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Deutsche Bank cut its rating on German memory chipmaker Infineon Technologies (IFX) (DE:623100) to sell from hold and set a price target at 7 euros. "After an abnormally good year, we believe that the DRAM industry will be c. 9.5 percent oversupplied in 2005," Deutsche told clients. "Infineon's analyst day... did not showcase a radical departure from previous strategic orientations but rather the potential for a more focused execution. We welcome this, but do not expect to witness tangible results before fiscal year 2006 at the earliest." Infineon competes with Samsung and Micron Technology (MU) in memory chips

Já agora penso que a Micron Tech MU pode dar um bom trade de curto prazo( http://www.caldeiraodebolsa.com/forum/v ... t=micronmu )

[Visitante]

lfred, é possível postar e comentar a IFX?
obrigada

[Alfred E. Neuman]

Memory-chip makers lead the industry
Samsung, Infineon to show strongest growth in '04

By Chris Kraeuter, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 1:42 PM ET Nov. 23, 2004


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Semiconductor-industry growth in 2004 has been strongest among producers of memory chips, enabling Infineon to capture the title of Europe's largest chip company, according to data from research house IC Insights.

Chipmakers started 2004 logging strong demand that carried over from the previous year. But a midyear inventory bloat and cautious corporate and consumer demand have damped second-half results. Current conditions will likely lead to reduced growth in 2005 for many chipmakers.

For 2004, growth among the 10 largest chipmakers is expected at a collective 24 percent, less than the industry-wide growth rate of 28 percent, said IC Insights, which on Tuesday released its preliminary rankings of the world's largest semiconductor companies.

The world's four largest chipmakers will maintain their respective rankings this year, with Intel (INTC: news, chart, profile) at the top, followed by Samsung, Texas Instruments (TXN: news, chart, profile) and Renesas. The preliminary rankings are based on expected revenue totals in U.S. dollars.

Intel's full-year chip sales are expected to eclipse $30 billion this year, twice that of second place Samsung, but its growth of 11 percent will lag the rest of the Top 10, IC Insights said.

Further, Santa Clara, Calif.-based Intel's compound annual growth rate during the past five years of 3.4 percent lags the overall industry's growth of 6.9 percent, IC Insights said.

South Korea-based Samsung, the world's largest memory-chip maker, will likely log the strongest growth in the top 10 this year with sales of $15.9 billion, up 53 percent from 2003.

Samsung has benefited this year from good pricing and strong demand for dynamic random access memory, which is used primarily in computers, and flash memory, used in handheld computers and cell phones.

Dallas-based Texas Instruments will also benefit this year from demand for its cellphone and assorted communications chips, as will Japan-based Renesas.

Infineon (IFX: news, chart, profile) is projected to make the strongest move up in the rankings, to fifth from seventh, helped also by demand and pricing for its memory chips. Germany-based Infineon also benefited from a strong euro. IC Insights predicted Infineon would grow 24 percent this year if its sales were kept in euros, but 35 percent when its sales are translated into U.S. dollars.

Japan's Toshiba (TOSBF: news, chart, profile) follows Infineon in the preliminary rankings in the sixth slot, down from last year's fifth position, and Switzerland's STMicroelectronics (STM: news, chart, profile) drops to seventh from sixth. STMicro had previously ranked as Europe's largest chipmaker.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM: news, chart, profile), NEC (NIPNY: news, chart, profile) and Freescale (FSL: news, chart, profile) round out the top 10, with each holding its rank from 2003.

[Alfred E. Neuman]

[Alfred E. Neuman]

Brokers favor TXN, AMD over Intel
PC chip giant downgraded for third time in a week

By Madeleine Acey, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:22 AM ET Nov. 23, 2004


LONDON (CBS.MW) - Chip analysts appear to be shifting their allegiance to Texas Instruments Inc. and AMD Inc. at Intel Corp.'s expense.

Credit Suisse First Boston on Tuesday was the latest of a string of brokers to downgrade Intel (INTC: news, chart, profile) in the last week. It cut its rating to "underperform" from "outperform" and reduced its share price target from $25 to $22.

The broker said it believed growth in the chip industry would be increasingly driven by digital consumer and communications products, not the PC central processing units that Intel concentrates on.

CSFB cited poor positioning at Intel for secular long-term industry growth, a risk of several years of excess capacity and slowing PC growth. It also predicted market share loss to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: news, chart, profile) in 2005 and said the company had limited traction outside processors.

"While INTC will likely see near-term strength given low expectations, healthy seasonal build-demand and improving inventories,... we would use the potential near-term strength to swap out of INTC into Texas Instruments (TXN: news, chart, profile) given our longer-term view on the stocks," CSFB added.

"...We believe INTC is more likely to underperform the overall industry in the coming years," it said.

Intel shares were down 35 cents in speculative pre-open trade on Tuesday at $23.75.

Third downgrade in a week

The downgrade came a week after Intel suffered two negative ratings shifts in as many days.

Last Tuesday Wedbush Morgan cut its recommendation on the shares to "hold" from "buy" and also dropped its 12-month price target to $22 from $25. Unlike CSFB, which maintained earnings outlook, Wedbush cut its 2005 earnings per share forecast to $1.15 from $1.25.

"It appears that Advanced Micro Devices will be able to gain share in the second half of calendar year 2005, including with the previously 100 percent Intel customer Dell Computer for the first time," analyst David Wu told clients.

Wu said that AMD in 2006 would have the capacity to accommodate the volume requirements of the top PC original equipment manufacturers, meaning it could back design wins in 2005.

"This is the first time AMD has the capacity to seriously erode Intel's 80 percent-plus market share," Wu said.

Last Monday, First Albany downgraded Intel to "underperform" from "buy" and recommended investors use the stock's seasonal strength to reduce exposure.

"We believe that we are looking at the PC upgrade cycle in the rear view mirror as Intel's year-over-year growth and gross margins peaked a year ago," analyst Auguste Richard wrote in a research note.

Richard also said he believed the company was losing market share.

He sliced his price target to $18 from $24

CSFB said Tuesday it believed growth in the chip industry would come from analog/mixed-signal, digital-signal processors, micro-controller units and clocks for digital consumer and communications products and less by the digital processing that Intel's chips enable.

It predicted PC market growth of just 8 percent long-term, versus 11 percent in 2003 and 2004, and said it thought Intel would continue to lose market share to AMD in PCs and servers.

It also expressed concern that both chip companies' 300mm processor supply would outstrip demand by 11 percent in 2005 and 33 percent in 2006. It added it would have to see one or both players reduce manufacturing plans to gain a more positive outlook.

AMD in focus

Merrill Lynch, two weeks ago, raised its rating on AMD to "buy" from "neutral" and placed a $22 price target on the chipmaker's stock.

"We believe that AMD is in the midst of a microprocessor product cycle that should allow the company to continue expanding profit margin and gaining market share against Intel for at least another year," Merrill told clients. "In contrast, Intel's own microprocessor roadmap for the next twelve months looks troubled."

In late October Smith Barney raised ratings on certain chip stocks, including Texas Instruments, Altera Corp. (ALTR: news, chart, profile) and Analog Devices Inc. (ADI: news, chart, profile).

The one dissenter was Janney Montgomery Scott, which downgraded Texas Instruments to "hold" from "buy" because of concerns over the semiconductor industry's longer-term fundamentals.

Analyst Vernon Essi also lowered the stock price target to $23 from $24, the fourth-quarter earnings estimate to 26 cents a share from 28 cents and the 2005 forecast to $1.16 a share from $1.18.

However, Essi said Texas Instruments was a "must own" chip company with defensive characteristics and limited downside.

On Tuesday, CSFB also downgraded On Semiconductor Corp. (ONNN: news, chart, profile), Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS: news, chart, profile) and Conexant Systems Inc. (CNXT: news, chart, profile) citing an expectation of a milder semiconductor upturn.

The broker theorised that increased capacity and inventory discipline within the supply chain that drove the lower peak in the last up-turn (2003/2004), would limit the downside in the coming downturn next year and the upside in the following upturn in 2006. "In other words, higher troughs, lower peaks."

CSFB said its key outperform rated stocks were Texas Instruments, Linear Technology (LLTC: news, chart, profile), Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM: news, chart, profile), Marvell Technology (MRVL: news, chart, profile), and Broadcom Corp. (BRCM: news, chart, profile).