Rev Shark escreveu agora um post no Realmoney que adorava ter sido eu a ter escrito pois representa bem aquilo que eu acho sobre as previsões a longo prazo e muitas das confusões que acontecem, por exemplo nos fóruns, por causa dos horizontes temporais.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
James "Rev Shark" De Porre
"Don't Get Ahead of Yourself"
4/24/03 01:55 PM ET
"When I discuss my market views, I usually have a fairly short time frame. I'm generally only concerned with what is going to occur in the next few days to few weeks. I don't find much value in trying to predict beyond that.
Frankly, I view long-term market timing as nothing more than a coin flip. I believe it is possible for someone to be consistently good at calling market direction a few weeks or months ahead, but once you start trying to predict what is going to happen six months or a year from now, it really is nothing more than a wild guess. Long-term market timers never seem to be around for long. Yesterday's genius is tomorrow's joke.
Regardless of its usefulness, people have a great inclination to make long-term market predictions. It's always interesting to speculate on what may happen down the road, but for most of us it is simply irrelevant when making investment decisions.
Variations in time frames between writers causes our readers much confusion at times. Two writers with essentially the same viewpoints who are discussing different time frames may sound like they are in total disagreement when they really aren't.
Make sure you understand what time frame people are trading in when you consider what they have to offer. I'll make an effort to try to clarify that more in my own scribblings. I tend to hold stocks for a variety of time frames. I'll flip some things intraday and hold other positions for many months. To me, that is an important form of diversification, and it helps me manage my risk. "
(in
www.realmoney.com)