CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

previsor Escreveu:

has accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections,

Biden’s debate performance sets off alarm bells for Democrats


President Joe Biden’s debate performance has set off alarm bells among top Democrats, leaving some to openly question whether Biden can stay atop of the Democratic ticket.

“He seemed a little disoriented. He did get stronger as the debate went on. But by that time, I think the panic had set in,” longtime Democratic operative and CNN senior political commentator David Axelrod said.

the idea that we’re going to be in a situation where all these millions and millions, the way he talks about it, illegal aliens are coming into the country and taking away our jobs, there’s a reason why we have the fastest-growing economy in the world, a reason why we have the most successful economy in the world.

Professor who correctly predicted 9 presidential elections weighs in on Biden vs. Trump

Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University who has accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections, tells CNN's Laura Coates why he thinks President Joe Biden has an advantage in 2024 despite polling that shows him trailing former president Donald Trump.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/29/poli ... lcl-digvid

MVP Escreveu:

previsor Escreveu:
Por exemplo quando o trump ganhou à Hillary Clinton acho que davam uma vitória à Hillary. E as casas de apostas provavelmente também erraram nessa altura.

Se existirem diferenças elas serão mais a favor de Trump, não menos. Não sei como conseguiste pensar sequer que se existir margem de erro ela é a favor do Biden. Até a comunicação social concorda que o homem não está bem.

previsor Escreveu:
Por exemplo quando o trump ganhou à Hillary Clinton acho que davam uma vitória à Hillary. E as casas de apostas provavelmente também erraram nessa altura.

By the end of the debate, one political betting market, PredictIt, gave Trump a 61 per cent chance of winning, having started the debate at 53 per cent. This put a number on what almost everyone was thinking.

https://www.ft.com/content/b28034a1-69d ... 907845d550

MarcoAntonio Escreveu:Previsor, as casas de apostas não apontam para percentagens de voto mas probabilidades de vitória e probabilidades e percentagem de voto são coisas bem diferentes. Estas percentagens de voto dão uma probabilidades de vitória (bastante) maior ao Trump, conforme já expliquei. Na verdade, as duas coisas são consistentes uma com a outra.

Biden debate performance is ‘nightmare’ for Democrats

If there was one thing Democrats wanted to see on display from President Biden at Thursday night’s debate, it was strength.

They wanted to see Biden pummel former President Trump on the Jan. 6 insurrection, on overturning Roe v. Wade. They wanted him to knock Trump down with the “convicted felon” moniker.

Instead, most Democrats acknowledged Thursday, it was Biden who was knocked down.

Hard.

His voice was hoarse. His lips quivered. After the debate began, the White House said he had a cold.

He tripped over his words. At times he veered off topic and in the wrong direction. During one moment, Biden declared, “We finally beat Medicare,” and went off course about earned benefits.

“This is an honest-to-God nightmare,” said one Biden ally. “I can’t believe what I’m watching. I am watching us lose this election in slow motion.”

Another Democratic strategist put it this way: “Political suicide.”

One Democrat resorted to gallows humor in a dark moment: “I wish Jamaal Bowman was around to pull the fire alarm,” this source said about the congressman from New York.

Not only did Biden not hold Trump accountable, Democrats acknowledged, but Biden stood by and watched as Trump spouted untruths on abortion and the COVID-19 pandemic. And when Trump continued to slam Biden as “the worst president in the history of our country,” Biden looked back “almost bewildered,” as one Democrat put it.

“There are no two ways about it. That was not a good debate for Joe Biden,” Kate Bedingfield, who served as Biden’s longtime communications aide, said on CNN following the debate.

“It’s the one night that confirmed people’s fears,” David Axelrod, who served as a senior adviser, said on the same CNN panel.

As the debate wore on Democrats grew increasingly anxious — some wondering if it was too late for Biden to drop out. They had thoughts about other candidates, too.

“There’s been a lot of chatter in our circles about Newsom,” one Democratic strategist said about California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

One House Democratic member from a swing state put it this way: “This was a disaster. Biden’s team needs to convince him to withdraw and have an open convention.”

One Democratic donor was also incensed after watching the debate.

“We need to have a real discussion about how this is going,” one Democratic donor said. “We can’t pussyfoot around this discussion of age anymore. We have to get serious. There is so much on the line here and what the f‑‑‑ are we doing?”

Biden campaign spokesman Seth Schuster said of the president, “of course he’s not dropping out.”

During the debate, Biden did try to hit back at Trump at times. “You are a child,” he said at one point. And during another moment, he called Trump out on his weight.

He also called him a sore loser, pointing to the former president’s loss in 2020.

“You can’t stand loss,” Biden said. “Something snapped in you when you lost last time.”

One longtime Biden ally said the president had gotten “a little better” as the night went on. “Trump’s relationship with the truth is really something.”

There was also plenty of frustration with CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, who did little to fact-check Trump in real time.

But mostly, Democrats were incensed and worried about the coming weeks. After the debate, Biden appeared at a watch party alongside first lady Jill Biden. And some Democrats were anxious for Biden to move forward.

On Friday afternoon, the president will hold a campaign event in North Carolina, before heading to three separate fundraisers this weekend in New York and New Jersey.

For now, they desperately want to forget this night happened.

“We lost tonight,” one Democrat said, referring to the race, not the debate.

Look, there’s so many young women who have been – including a young woman who just was murdered and he – he went to the funeral. The idea that she was murdered by a – by –by an immigrant coming in, and they talk about that. But here’s the deal, there’s a lot of young women who are being raped by their – by their in-laws, by their – by their spouses, brothers and sisters, by – just – it’s just – it’s just ridiculous. And they can do nothing about it.

BASH: President Trump, just a follow-up, would you support the creation of an independent Palestinian state in order to achieve peace in the region?

TRUMP: I’d have to see. But, before we do that, the problem we have is that we spend all the money. So, they kill us on trade. I made great trade deals with the European nations, because if you add them up, they’re about the same size economically. Their economy is about the same size as the United States. And they were with (ph) no cars. No. They don’t want anything that we have. But, we’re supposed to take their cars, their food, their everything, their agriculture. I changed that.

But, the big thing I changed is they don’t want to pay. And the only reason that he can play games with NATO is because I got them to put up hundreds of billions of dollars. I said, and he is right about this, I said, no, I’m not going to support NATO if you don’t pay. They asked me that question. Would you guard us against Russia at a very secret meeting of the 28 states at that time, nations at that time? And they said, no, if you don’t pay, I won’t do that. And you know what happened? Billions and billions of dollars came flowing in the next day and the next months. But now, we’re in the same position. We’re paying everybody’s bills.

How many billions of dollars do you owe in civil penalties for molesting a woman in public, for doing a whole range of things, of having sex with a porn star on the night – and while your wife was pregnant?

I mean, what are you talking about? You have the morals of an alley cat.

TRUMP: So, I want absolutely immaculate clean water and I want absolutely clean air, and we had it. We had H2O. We had the best numbers ever. And we did – we were using all forms of energy, all forms, everything. And yet, during my four years, I had the best environmental numbers ever. And my top environmental people gave me that statistic just before I walked on the stage, actually.

BIDEN: Look, the fact of the matter is that he’s dead wrong about it. He’s increased the tariff – he’s increased – he will increase the taxes on middle class people. I said I’d never raise a tax on anybody making less than $400,000. I didn’t.

President Biden?

BIDEN: You’re going to see he’s six-foot-five and only 225 pounds – or 235 pounds.

TRUMP: (inaudible).

BIDEN: Well, you said six-four, 200.

TRUMP: (inaudible).

BIDEN: Well, anyway, that’s – anyway, just take a look at what he says he is and take a look at what he is.

Look, I’d be happy to have a driving contest with him. I got my handicap, which, when I was vice president, down to a 6.

And by the way, I told you before I’m happy to play golf if you carry your own bag. Think you can do it?

TRUMP: That’s the biggest lie that he’s a 6 handicap, of all.

BIDEN: I was 8 handicap.

TRUMP: Yeah.

BIDEN: Eight, but I have – you know how many…

TRUMP: I’ve seen your swing, I know your swing.

(CROSSTALK)

BASH: President Trump, we’re going to…

(CROSSTALK)

TRUMP: Let’s not act like children.

BIDEN: You are a child.

Democrats suggest ‘chatter’ on Biden stepping aside amid ‘panic’ over debate

Democratic operatives and political pundits suggested on Thursday that there are conversations happening about President Biden stepping aside before November’s election after a debate performance some called “dismal,” panicking some of his closest allies.

That revelation came in the moments after Biden wrapped up a CNN debate with former President Trump, a performance that was panned for his voice appearing hoarse, which the White House attributed to a cold, and garbling answers on questions relating to key issues for Democrats.

CNN’s John King kicked off the network’s political analysis of the event with this stark assessment: “This was a game changing debate in the sense that right now as we speak, there is a deep, a wide and a very aggressive panic in the Democratic Party.”

David Axelrod, a senior adviser to former President Obama who joined King on a roundtable, said the party was experiencing “shock.”

“I think there was a sense of shock, actually, at how he came out at the beginning of this debate. How his voice sounded. He seemed a bit disoriented. He did get stronger as the debate went on,” Axelrod said. “I think you’re going to hear discussions that I don’t know will lead to anything but there are going to be discussions about whether he should continue.”

Vice President Kamala Harris acknowledged later in a CNN interview with Anderson Cooper than Biden was off to a “slow start” but fought through a testy exchange to defend Biden on substance and policy.

A Biden adviser defended the president when asked about conversations about him stepping aside.

“President Biden is the only person who has ever beaten Donald Trump. He will do it again. Donald Trump did not give voters any reason to vote for him tonight. On the issues, the American people are with Joe Biden,” the adviser said.

But the debate left the political world shook, with some pundits on left-leaning MSNBC taking the time to describe what procedures would be required to replace Biden at the Democratic National Convention.

Back on CNN, Van Jones, who worked as a special adviser for Obama, gave a haunting assessment in which he lauded Biden but acknowledged the personal “pain” some might feel about the notion of asking the president to step aside.

“I think there’s a lot of people who are going to want to see him consider taking a different course now. We’re still far from our convention and there is time for this party to figure out a different way forward, if he will allow us to do that. But that was not what we needed from Joe Biden and it’s personally painful for a lot of people, it’s not just panic, its pain of what we saw tonight.”

King, meanwhile, said some conversations he’d heard about involved going to the White House.

“They’re having conversations about the president’s performance, which they think was dismal, which they think will hurt other people down the party in the ticket, and they’re having conversations about what they should do about it,” King said. “Some of those conversations include should we go to the White House and ask the president to step aside? Other… conversations are about should prominent Democrats go public with that call because they feel this debate was so terrible.”

He added that elected officials are among some of the Democrats who are asking “what do we do about this” after Biden’s performance, calling it a problem for the party.

Jen Psaki, who served as Biden’s first White House press secretary, said on MSNBC that “chatter is happening” not from campaign operatives but from Democratic lawmakers and outside operatives.

“The chatter is very distracting and it’s going to be very consuming for the campaign. Should he be replaced? They’re going to be answering that question instead of breaking through on attacking Trump,” she said.

“Is that chatter the same chatter… in two weeks when Trump is sentenced and Joe Biden goes out and has a strong couple of weeks? It may not be. But it is incumbent upon the campaign to now dig out of this hole,” she added.

Former Biden White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said on CNN that Biden failed to assuage concerns voters have had for months when it comes to Biden’s age and whether he could win reelection and be up for the job of president for another four years.

“It was a really disappointing debate performance from Joe Biden,” she said. “His biggest issue that he had to prove to the American people was that he has the energy and the stamina, and he didn’t do that. And so, I think that is a concern.”

Following the debate, Biden spoke to a room of supporters at a watch party in Atlanta alongside first lady Jill Biden, where he gave a much more energetic performance in brief remarks to a crowd. That prompted MSNBC Rachel Maddow, who also assessed Biden’s performance poorly, to declare: “That Joe Biden would’ve killed in that debate.”

Dems freak out over Biden’s debate performance: ‘Biden is toast’

One prominent operative texted, “Time for an open convention.”


President Joe Biden opened the debate with a raspy voice and disjointed, rambling answers, reigniting Democratic concerns about his age and ability to take on former President Donald Trump.

Many of the president’s answers were hard to follow. At one point, seemingly losing his train of thought, Biden said “we finally beat Medicare,” misspeaking about his own policy on earned benefits.

In text messages with POLITICO, Democrats expressed confusion and concern as they watched the first minutes of the event. One former Biden White House and campaign aide called it “terrible,” adding that they have had to ask themselves over and over “What did he just say? This is crazy.”

Another veteran Democratic operative texted, “Biden seems to have needed a few minutes to warm up. I wonder if the lack of an audience was the right decision. And poor guy needs a tea. Maybe a whiskey.”

Jay Surdukowski, an attorney and Democratic activist from New Hampshire who co-chaired Martin O’Malley’s 2016 presidential campaign in the state, said, “Biden is toast — calling it now.”

Biden’s rambling answers provided Trump multiple opportunities to jump in with retorts. At one point, after an answer ostensibly on immigration, Trump said, “I don’t know what he said at the end there. I don’t think he knows what he said.”

The president’s performance was widely panned online and will likely reinforce the impression that he’s lost a step. The 81-year-old president’s age has long been a liability, with poll after poll showing even many Democrats concerned about his age.

Biden aides and allies had hoped the on-stage split screen between the two men would help to focus voters’ attention on the race. But during the debate, many Democrats have begun to doubt that strategy would actually work out in Biden’s favor.

A person familiar with Biden’s health claimed that his performance is due to a cold. But the president’s team hadn’t mentioned that to reporters until Biden began to answer questions in the debate.

One prominent operative texted, “Time for an open convention.”

previsor Escreveu:enquanto o do Trump tem um apoio mais fanático

previsor Escreveu:Parecem próximos em agregadores de sondagens

Diferenças entre eles:

O,2%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/

1%
https://www.economist.com/interactive/u ... iden-polls

2,6%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/