Já agora...
Enviado: 7/4/2003 14:27..um artigo interessante sobre esta temática:
Eu ando a coleccionar "desculpas" que não me deixem remorsos quando sentir fraqueza nos mercados, e ter que clicar em "sell".... e este artigo é mais "uma".
A kick-start for economy?
The market seems to think if it rallies, even for the "wrong" reasons, it can usher in a new bull market.
Don't rush to judgment
Commentary: The market is trying to make its own reality
By Tomi Kilgore, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 7:14 AM ET April 7, 2003
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Reality is not always what you make of it.
Whether it was expected or not, last week's economic data was horrible -- if that's not too much of an understatement to say. But still, stocks rallied and interest rates rose.
Or is it all about the war? Once that is out of the way, will investors' psyches get enough of a charge to drive stocks and the economy upward for more than just a couple months?
Not even the Fed knows the answer. It said last month that "in light of the unusually large uncertainties clouding the geopolitical situation," it did not feel it could "usefully characterize the current balance of risk" to economic growth.
Add to the geopolitical mix the uncertainty over a different kind of Asian contagion, the effect of severe winter weather and maybe even the effect of the timing of the Easter holiday -- which seemed to just creep up on the calendar for those attributing weaker than expected sales to it -- and it's even a bigger mess.
But not for the market.
Despite all the bad data and the beginning of an iffy earnings season, the "Diamonds" (DIA), a tracking stock for the Dow Jones Industrials Average ($INDU), rose 1.6 percent last week, and closed Friday ($82.89) up 12 percent from its 2003 low ($74.31 on March 12).
Whatever the reason for the latest economic downturn, it can very easily become a self-fulfilling reality that not even euphoria over a quick victory in Iraq or a Fed rate cut can change for long.
Instead, the market seems to believe that if it rallies enough, even for the "wrong" reasons, maybe it will kick start a new bull market that would help lift confidence here and abroad, enough so that it could tame even the worst economic data.
The market is attempting to make its own reality, based on the idea that war is the root of all current evils.
Nancy Kimelman, chief economist at SEI Investments, said her research indicates that post-war effects have been very different over time, and therefore very difficult to predict.
"I think this means that we should not rush to conclusions about what the end of the war will bring to the economy and the markets," Kimelman said.
So rather than try to be a part of the market's reality, it's better to just stay away. With all the factors floating around that could derail the latest rally, it's not worth making a bet at such a critical juncture and losing any gains that were made in the last month.
There's no rule on Wall Street that says you have to be in it to win it.
The Japanese like to say: "Deru kugi ga utareru" (Translation: "A nail that sticks out gets hammered.")
The only game isn't always the right game
Market participants are not betting on whether the coalition forces will win the war. They're not even betting on, like many are in Las Vegas, the timing of a victory announcement. The end is likely to come soon enough, given what has transpired over the weekend.
In that case, the only game left to play is the aftermath -- once the war is over, investors will be so euphoric that they'll forget about how bad the economy is, how companies still can't make their sales forecast and the effect of the virus know as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) on Asia, perhaps the world.
The economy was thought to have slowed in March, due to all of the above factors, but reality was much worse than expected. The factory sector contracted to a level not seen in 1 1/2 years and jobs continued to decline at a much faster than expected rate.
"It would be very hard philosophically for investors to buy into a stock market recovery while they are still being brow beaten by weak data," Bear Stearns said in a strategy note to clients.
But they did.
The Diamonds rose 1.2 percent on Tuesday when the Institute of Supply Management released its March index reading and they rose 0.6 percent on Friday, when the U.S. Department of Labor said that 108,000 non-farm jobs were lost in March versus expectations of 17,000 job losses.
"Victory in Iraq will undoubtedly trigger a rebound in confidence that could well translate into a snapback in spending," said Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. "But like the post Sept. 11 bounce-back, it too may be short-lived."
Coupled with stiff economic headwinds and the lingering SARS-related impacts on Asia, he thinks a short-lived snapback would create a breeding ground for a double dip recession.
The market doesn't appear willing to face the possibility of that reality yet.
No help from the techs
If you try to look at the charts for clarity on the short-term outlook, the view is the same - there's too much on both sides to make a good bet.
The Diamonds are being hemmed in by the 200-day simple moving average above and by an "island reversal" pattern below.
On March 21, the "Diamonds" closed in positive territory for the year and above its 200-day simple moving average for the first time since late May 2002. Given that many view the 200-day as a bull-versus-bear barometer, surely it would attract some long-term players.
But it didn't, as disappointment that the war actually resulted in some casualties and that it had lasted more than just a few days sent the Diamonds tumbling.
Now, the 200-day is coming in just above $83.50. Knowing what happened last time, it would undoubtedly be difficult to recruit any buyers to drive the Dow tracker much above that level. Because even if they did, they would have to contend with resistance close by at the March 21 high of $85.36.
The Diamonds had gapped lower at the beginning of the week, as last Monday's intraday high ($80.90) failed to overlap with the previous Friday's low ($81.20). Then on Wednesday, the Diamonds gapped higher (Wednesday low of $82.18 versus Tuesday high of $81.11), leaving sellers on Monday and Tuesday stranded.
This could be viewed as a strong support area, given that those with short positions left open would be ecstatic for any chance to escape unscathed.
Support would start throughout the second gap and at Monday's low of $79.39.
If you think I sound a little gun shy after all that's happened, you hit the nail right on the head.
Eu ando a coleccionar "desculpas" que não me deixem remorsos quando sentir fraqueza nos mercados, e ter que clicar em "sell".... e este artigo é mais "uma".
A kick-start for economy?
The market seems to think if it rallies, even for the "wrong" reasons, it can usher in a new bull market.
Don't rush to judgment
Commentary: The market is trying to make its own reality
By Tomi Kilgore, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 7:14 AM ET April 7, 2003
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Reality is not always what you make of it.
Whether it was expected or not, last week's economic data was horrible -- if that's not too much of an understatement to say. But still, stocks rallied and interest rates rose.
Or is it all about the war? Once that is out of the way, will investors' psyches get enough of a charge to drive stocks and the economy upward for more than just a couple months?
Not even the Fed knows the answer. It said last month that "in light of the unusually large uncertainties clouding the geopolitical situation," it did not feel it could "usefully characterize the current balance of risk" to economic growth.
Add to the geopolitical mix the uncertainty over a different kind of Asian contagion, the effect of severe winter weather and maybe even the effect of the timing of the Easter holiday -- which seemed to just creep up on the calendar for those attributing weaker than expected sales to it -- and it's even a bigger mess.
But not for the market.
Despite all the bad data and the beginning of an iffy earnings season, the "Diamonds" (DIA), a tracking stock for the Dow Jones Industrials Average ($INDU), rose 1.6 percent last week, and closed Friday ($82.89) up 12 percent from its 2003 low ($74.31 on March 12).
Whatever the reason for the latest economic downturn, it can very easily become a self-fulfilling reality that not even euphoria over a quick victory in Iraq or a Fed rate cut can change for long.
Instead, the market seems to believe that if it rallies enough, even for the "wrong" reasons, maybe it will kick start a new bull market that would help lift confidence here and abroad, enough so that it could tame even the worst economic data.
The market is attempting to make its own reality, based on the idea that war is the root of all current evils.
Nancy Kimelman, chief economist at SEI Investments, said her research indicates that post-war effects have been very different over time, and therefore very difficult to predict.
"I think this means that we should not rush to conclusions about what the end of the war will bring to the economy and the markets," Kimelman said.
So rather than try to be a part of the market's reality, it's better to just stay away. With all the factors floating around that could derail the latest rally, it's not worth making a bet at such a critical juncture and losing any gains that were made in the last month.
There's no rule on Wall Street that says you have to be in it to win it.
The Japanese like to say: "Deru kugi ga utareru" (Translation: "A nail that sticks out gets hammered.")
The only game isn't always the right game
Market participants are not betting on whether the coalition forces will win the war. They're not even betting on, like many are in Las Vegas, the timing of a victory announcement. The end is likely to come soon enough, given what has transpired over the weekend.
In that case, the only game left to play is the aftermath -- once the war is over, investors will be so euphoric that they'll forget about how bad the economy is, how companies still can't make their sales forecast and the effect of the virus know as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) on Asia, perhaps the world.
The economy was thought to have slowed in March, due to all of the above factors, but reality was much worse than expected. The factory sector contracted to a level not seen in 1 1/2 years and jobs continued to decline at a much faster than expected rate.
"It would be very hard philosophically for investors to buy into a stock market recovery while they are still being brow beaten by weak data," Bear Stearns said in a strategy note to clients.
But they did.
The Diamonds rose 1.2 percent on Tuesday when the Institute of Supply Management released its March index reading and they rose 0.6 percent on Friday, when the U.S. Department of Labor said that 108,000 non-farm jobs were lost in March versus expectations of 17,000 job losses.
"Victory in Iraq will undoubtedly trigger a rebound in confidence that could well translate into a snapback in spending," said Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. "But like the post Sept. 11 bounce-back, it too may be short-lived."
Coupled with stiff economic headwinds and the lingering SARS-related impacts on Asia, he thinks a short-lived snapback would create a breeding ground for a double dip recession.
The market doesn't appear willing to face the possibility of that reality yet.
No help from the techs
If you try to look at the charts for clarity on the short-term outlook, the view is the same - there's too much on both sides to make a good bet.
The Diamonds are being hemmed in by the 200-day simple moving average above and by an "island reversal" pattern below.
On March 21, the "Diamonds" closed in positive territory for the year and above its 200-day simple moving average for the first time since late May 2002. Given that many view the 200-day as a bull-versus-bear barometer, surely it would attract some long-term players.
But it didn't, as disappointment that the war actually resulted in some casualties and that it had lasted more than just a few days sent the Diamonds tumbling.
Now, the 200-day is coming in just above $83.50. Knowing what happened last time, it would undoubtedly be difficult to recruit any buyers to drive the Dow tracker much above that level. Because even if they did, they would have to contend with resistance close by at the March 21 high of $85.36.
The Diamonds had gapped lower at the beginning of the week, as last Monday's intraday high ($80.90) failed to overlap with the previous Friday's low ($81.20). Then on Wednesday, the Diamonds gapped higher (Wednesday low of $82.18 versus Tuesday high of $81.11), leaving sellers on Monday and Tuesday stranded.
This could be viewed as a strong support area, given that those with short positions left open would be ecstatic for any chance to escape unscathed.
Support would start throughout the second gap and at Monday's low of $79.39.
If you think I sound a little gun shy after all that's happened, you hit the nail right on the head.