CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Neste momento prefiro estar posicionado num etf short do que num etf bull...

O mais importante era em vez de se tentar adivinhar até onde vai o tal crash era saber se olhando pro preço ele pode acontecer !!!!

Mas isto talvez dê mais trabalho para os ditos analistas

Tantas vezes o cantaro vai à fonte que caba por partir. Diariamente temos milhares de analistas a dizerem que vai haver um crash e diariamente temos milhares de analistas a dizer que o mercado vai subir. Follow the trend e identifiquem sinais de aviso nos gráficos como os indicados no SP500 a seguir (major crashes).



Por outro lado não me acredito que no próximo crash o S&P venha para os 800 pontos, como nos últimos. Deverá parar na zona dos 1500 pontos, que foram os máximos dos outros major bull markets indicados.

exacto...se eu disser todos os anos que "agora é que é, vamos observar um crash", um dia hei de acertar.

AHAHAHAH VG

Até um relógio de ponteiros avariado está certo 2 vezes por dia

Algum dia há-de acertar

Eu acho um exagero o que ele diz mas é sempre bom ouvir alguém que nos acalme o entusiasmo. Um dia vai ter de corrigir e tambem acho que é com força. Temos pela frente as eleições dos USA e os avisos que o 3º trimestre vai ser muito mais fraco em resultados.

O MARC FABER é um permabear há varios anos .

Ele tem razão em algumas coisas que diz, mas enquanto o mercado estiver inundado de dinheiro e complacencia, é ir dancando com a musica.


Eu tambem acho que já poderia ter existido alguma correcção, mas enquanto a musica não parar , faço como nos ultimos dias , é comprar acompanhar as subidas e fazer boas mais valias , que é para isso que andamos no mercado.

Marc Faber: S&P is set to crash 50%, giving back 5 years of gains
Alex Rosenberg | @AcesRose

The notoriously bearish Marc Faber is doubling down on his dire market view.

The editor and publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation" that stocks are likely to endure a gut-wrenching drop that would rival the greatest crashes in stock market history.

"I think we can easily give back five years of capital gains, which would take the market down to around 1,100," Faber said, referring to a level 50 percent below Monday's closing on the S&P 500.

In fact, stocks would need to fall by at least that much in order for some of Faber's calls to be proven correct. In October 2009, when the S&P was trading near 1,100, Faber said on Indian CNBC-TV18 that U.S. and Indian stocks were "very overbought" and "the gravy's out" on the rally.

Since then, Faber has generally only become more and more bearish as stocks have climbed. And on Monday, as Faber made his latest crash call, the S&P 500 touched an all-time high of 2,185.44.

When pressed on what could cause the decline he predicts, Faber responded that "you never know exactly why this will happen," adding that he believes the market's gains are unsustainable.

"The fact is, the market hasn't really been driven by genuine buying, but by stock buybacks, takeovers and acquisitions, and market leadership has been narrowing. It's not that many stocks that have been making new highs. It's quite a narrow growth of stocks that have been very strong," he said.

In fact, market breadth has broadened substantially, and as of Monday's close, 48 percent of the stocks within the S&P 500 have made 52-week highs within the past three months; 6 percent made 1-year highs on Monday alone.

Even though markets have been incredibly quiescent of late, Faber warns that "the excess liquidity that have been generated by central banks will lead to a great deal of volatility."

And turning an eye to personal history, Faber said that "I've seen, repeatedly in my life, markets drop 40 or 50 percent, and in some cases I've seen a market like the Dow Jones drop 21 percent in one day."

"So many things can happen."

A look at Faber's predictions, however, would suggest that a sustained market rally was never really within the realm of possible happenings that he considered