ALGACA Escreveu:Beware the great 2016 financial crisis, warns leading City pessimist
Albert Edwards joins RBS in warning of a new crash, saying oil price plunge and deflation from emerging markets will overwhelm central banks, tip the markets and collapse the eurozone
Traders give the thumbs down at a stock trading hub
Are the doommongers right – are we heading for a big global economic fall? Photograph: Dennis M. Sabangan/EPA
Larry Elliott Economics editor
Tuesday 12 January 2016 19.25 GMT
Last modified on Wednesday 13 January 2016 00.20 GMT
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The City of London’s most vocal “bear” has warned that the world is heading for a financial crisis as severe as the crash of 2008-09 that could prompt the collapse of the eurozone.
Albert Edwards, strategist at the bank Société Générale, said the west was about to be hit by a wave of deflation from emerging market economies and that central banks were unaware of the disaster about to hit them. His comments came as analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland urged investors to “sell everything” ahead of an imminent stock market crash.
Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists
Read more
“Developments in the global economy will push the US back into recession,” Edwards told an investment conference in London. “The financial crisis will reawaken. It will be every bit as bad as in 2008-09 and it will turn very ugly indeed.”
Fears of a second serious financial crisis within a decade have been heightened by the turbulence in markets since the start of the year. Share prices have fallen rapidly and a slump in the cost of oil has left Brent crude trading at barely above $30 a barrel.
“Can it get any worse? Of course it can,” said Edwards, the most prominent of the stock market bears – the terms for analysts who think shares are overvalued and will fall in price. “Emerging market currencies are still in freefall. The US corporate sector is being crushed by the appreciation of the dollar.”
The Soc Gen strategist said the US economy was in far worse shape than the country’s central bank, the US Federal Reserve, realised. “We have seen massive credit expansion in the US. This is not for real economic activity; it is borrowing to finance share buybacks.”
Edwards attacked what he said was the “incredible conceit” of central bankers, who had failed to learn the lessons of the housing bubble that led to the financial crisis and slump of 2008-09.
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“They didn’t understand the system then and they don’t understand how they are screwing up again. Deflation is upon us and the central banks can’t see it.”
Edwards said the dollar had risen by as much as the Japanese yen had in the 1990s, an upwards move that pushed Japan into deflation and caused solvency problems for the Asian country’s banks. He added that a sign of the crisis to come was the collapse in demand for credit in China.
“That happens when people lose confidence that policymakers know what they are doing. This is what is going to happen in Europe and the US.”
Europe has shown tentative signs of recovery in the past year, but Edwards said the efforts of the European Central Bank to push the euro lower and growth higher would come to nothing in the event of a fresh downturn. “If the global economy goes back into recession, it is curtains for the eurozone.”
Countries such as France, Spain and Italy would not accept the rising unemployment that would be associated with another recession, he said. “What a disaster the euro has been: it is a doomsday machine in favour of the German economy.”
Analysis Is RBS right to forecast doom and gloom for the global economy?
Royal Bank of Scotland economists say the global economy is in for a very gloomy year indeed. Here’s what five economists think
Read more
The warning from Edwards came as stock markets had a respite from the wave of selling seen since the start of the year. The FTSE 100 index rose by 57 points to close at 5,929, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 10 points in early trading in New York.
The mood in equity markets was helped by intervention by the People’s Bank of China overnight to support the yuan, with the Chinese currency moving higher on foreign exchange markets.
But the slide in the oil price continued, with Brent crude falling a further 3.5% to close in London at $30.45. Oil has not been below $30 a barrel since 2003.
Edwards joked that after years in which he has tended to be a lone voice, other institutions were also becoming a lot gloomier about global prospects.
He was referring to the RBS advice, which warned that investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel.
In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high-quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point, RBS said.
traduzido;;;;
A apresentar tradução para Beware the great 2016 financial crisis, warns leading City pessimist Albert Edwards joins RBS in warning of a new crash, saying oil price plunge and deflation from emerging markets will overwhelm central banks, tip the markets and collapse the eurozone Traders give the thumbs down at a stock trading hub Are the doom mongers right – are we heading for a big global economic fall? Photograph: Dennis M. Sabangan/EPA Larry Elliott Economics editor Tuesday 12 January 2016 19.25 GMT Last modified on Wednesday 13 January 2016 00.20 GMT Share on Pinterest Share on LinkedIn Share on Google+ Shares 3,661 Comments 1,705 Save for later The City of London’s most vocal “bear” has warned that the world is heading for a financial crisis as severe as the crash of 2008-09 that could prompt the collapse of the eurozone. Albert Edwards, strategist at the bank Société Générale, said the west was about to be hit by a wave of deflation from emerging market economies and that central banks were unaware of the disaster about to hit them. His comments came as analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland urged investors to “sell everything” ahead of an imminent stock market crash. Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists Read more “Developments in the global economy will push the US back into recession,” Edwards told an investment conference in London. “The financial crisis will reawaken. It will be every bit as bad as in 2008-09 and it will turn very ugly indeed.” Fears of a second serious financial crisis within a decade have been heightened by the turbulence in markets since the start of the year. Share prices have fallen rapidly and a slump in the cost of oil has left Brent crude trading at barely above $30 a barrel. “Can it get any worse? Of course it can,” said Edwards, the most prominent of the stock market bears – the terms for analysts who think shares are overvalued and will fall in price. “Emerging market currencies are still in freefall. The US corporate sector is being crushed by the appreciation of the dollar.” The Soc Gen strategist said the US economy was in far worse shape than the country’s central bank, the US Federal Reserve, realised. “We have seen massive credit expansion in the US. This is not for real economic activity; it is borrowing to finance share buybacks.” Edwards attacked what he said was the “incredible conceit” of central bankers, who had failed to learn the lessons of the housing bubble that led to the financial crisis and slump of 2008-09. Advertisement “They didn’t understand the system then and they don’t understand how they are screwing up again. Deflation is upon us and the central banks can’t see it.” Edwards said the dollar had risen by as much as the Japanese yen had in the 1990s, an upwards move that pushed Japan into deflation and caused solvency problems for the Asian country’s banks. He added that a sign of the crisis to come was the collapse in demand for credit in China. “That happens when people lose confidence that policymakers know what they are doing. This is what is going to happen in Europe and the US.” Europe has shown tentative signs of recovery in the past year, but Edwards said the efforts of the European Central Bank to push the euro lower and growth higher would come to nothing in the event of a fresh downturn. “If the global economy goes back into recession, it is curtains for the eurozone.” Countries such as France, Spain and Italy would not accept the rising unemployment that would be associated with another recession, he said. “What a disaster the euro has been: it is a doomsday machine in favour of the German economy.” Analysis Is RBS right to forecast doom and gloom for the global economy? Royal Bank of Scotland economists say the global economy is in for a very gloomy year indeed. Here’s what five economists think Read more The warning from Edwards came as stock markets had a respite from the wave of selling seen since the start of the year. The FTSE 100 index rose by 57 points to close at 5,929, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 10 points in early trading in New York. The mood in equity markets was helped by intervention by the People’s Bank of China overnight to support the yuan, with the Chinese currency moving higher on foreign exchange markets. But the slide in the oil price continued, with Brent crude falling a further 3.5% to close in London at $30.45. Oil has not been below $30 a barrel since 2003. Edwards joked that after years in which he has tended to be a lone voice, other institutions were also becoming a lot gloomier about global prospects. He was referring to the RBS advice, which warned that investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel. In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high-quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point, RBS said.
Em vez disso, traduzir Beware the great 2016 financial crisis, warns leading City pessimist Albert Edwards joins RBS in warning of a new crash, saying oil price plunge and deflation from emerging markets will overwhelm central banks, tip the markets and collapse the eurozone Traders give the thumbs down at a stock trading hub Are the doommongers right – are we heading for a big global economic fall? Photograph: Dennis M. Sabangan/EPA Larry Elliott Economics editor Tuesday 12 January 2016 19.25 GMT Last modified on Wednesday 13 January 2016 00.20 GMT Share on Pinterest Share on LinkedIn Share on Google+ Shares 3,661 Comments 1,705 Save for later The City of London’s most vocal “bear” has warned that the world is heading for a financial crisis as severe as the crash of 2008-09 that could prompt the collapse of the eurozone. Albert Edwards, strategist at the bank Société Générale, said the west was about to be hit by a wave of deflation from emerging market economies and that central banks were unaware of the disaster about to hit them. His comments came as analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland urged investors to “sell everything” ahead of an imminent stock market crash. Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists Read more “Developments in the global economy will push the US back into recession,” Edwards told an investment conference in London. “The financial crisis will reawaken. It will be every bit as bad as in 2008-09 and it will turn very ugly indeed.” Fears of a second serious financial crisis within a decade have been heightened by the turbulence in markets since the start of the year. Share prices have fallen rapidly and a slump in the cost of oil has left Brent crude trading at barely above $30 a barrel. “Can it get any worse? Of course it can,” said Edwards, the most prominent of the stock market bears – the terms for analysts who think shares are overvalued and will fall in price. “Emerging market currencies are still in freefall. The US corporate sector is being crushed by the appreciation of the dollar.” The Soc Gen strategist said the US economy was in far worse shape than the country’s central bank, the US Federal Reserve, realised. “We have seen massive credit expansion in the US. This is not for real economic activity; it is borrowing to finance share buybacks.” Edwards attacked what he said was the “incredible conceit” of central bankers, who had failed to learn the lessons of the housing bubble that led to the financial crisis and slump of 2008-09. Advertisement “They didn’t understand the system then and they don’t understand how they are screwing up again. Deflation is upon us and the central banks can’t see it.” Edwards said the dollar had risen by as much as the Japanese yen had in the 1990s, an upwards move that pushed Japan into deflation and caused solvency problems for the Asian country’s banks. He added that a sign of the crisis to come was the collapse in demand for credit in China. “That happens when people lose confidence that policymakers know what they are doing. This is what is going to happen in Europe and the US.” Europe has shown tentative signs of recovery in the past year, but Edwards said the efforts of the European Central Bank to push the euro lower and growth higher would come to nothing in the event of a fresh downturn. “If the global economy goes back into recession, it is curtains for the eurozone.” Countries such as France, Spain and Italy would not accept the rising unemployment that would be associated with another recession, he said. “What a disaster the euro has been: it is a doomsday machine in favour of the German economy.” Analysis Is RBS right to forecast doom and gloom for the global economy? Royal Bank of Scotland economists say the global economy is in for a very gloomy year indeed. Here’s what five economists think Read more The warning from Edwards came as stock markets had a respite from the wave of selling seen since the start of the year. The FTSE 100 index rose by 57 points to close at 5,929, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up by 10 points in early trading in New York. The mood in equity markets was helped by intervention by the People’s Bank of China overnight to support the yuan, with the Chinese currency moving higher on foreign exchange markets. But the slide in the oil price continued, with Brent crude falling a further 3.5% to close in London at $30.45. Oil has not been below $30 a barrel since 2003. Edwards joked that after years in which he has tended to be a lone voice, other institutions were also becoming a lot gloomier about global prospects. He was referring to the RBS advice, which warned that investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel. In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high-quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.” It said the current situation was reminiscent of 2008, when the collapse of the Lehman Brothers investment bank led to the global financial crisis. This time China could be the crisis point, RBS said.
Cuidado com a grande crise financeira de 2016, adverte líder pessimista Cidade
Albert Edwards ingressa RBS no aviso de um novo acidente, dizendo queda do preço do petróleo ea deflação dos mercados emergentes vai sobrecarregar os bancos centrais, os mercados de ponta e colapso da zona do euro
Traders dar os polegares para baixo em um hub de negociação de ações
São os traficantes desgraça certo - estamos indo para uma grande queda econômica global? Fotografia: Dennis M. Sabangan / EPA
Editor Larry Elliott Economia
Terça-feira 12 de janeiro de 2016 19,25 GMT
Última modificação em Quarta 13 de janeiro de 2016 00.20 GMT Compartilhar no Pinterest Compartilhar no LinkedIn Partilhar no Google+
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A cidade de Londres mais vocal "urso", alertou que o mundo está caminhando para uma crise financeira tão grave como o crash de 2008-09 que poderia levar ao colapso da zona do euro.
Albert Edwards, estrategista do banco Société Générale, disse que o Ocidente estava prestes a ser atingido por uma onda de deflação de economias de mercado emergentes e que os bancos centrais não tinham conhecimento do desastre prestes a atingi-los. Seus comentários vieram como analistas do Royal Bank of Scotland incitou os investidores a "vender tudo" à frente de um crash do mercado acionário iminente.
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"A evolução da economia global vão empurrar os EUA de volta à recessão", Edwards disse em uma conferência de investimento em Londres. "A crise financeira vai despertar. Ele vai ser tão ruim quanto em 2008-09 e ele vai ficar muito feio, de fato. "
Temores de uma segunda grave crise financeira dentro de uma década foram agravada pela turbulência nos mercados desde o início do ano. Os preços das ações caíram rapidamente e uma queda no custo do petróleo deixou Brent negociação bruto a pouco acima de US $ 30 por barril.
"Pode ficar pior? Claro que pode ", disse Edwards, o mais proeminente dos ursos do mercado de ações - os termos para os analistas que pensam ações estão supervalorizadas e vai cair de preço. "Moedas de mercados emergentes ainda estão em queda livre. O setor corporativo dos EUA está sendo esmagado pela valorização do dólar ".
O estrategista Soc Gen disse que a economia dos EUA estava em muito pior forma do que o banco central do país, a Reserva Federal dos EUA, realizado. "Vimos enorme expansão do crédito em os EUA. Isto não é para a actividade económica real; ele está pedindo para financiar a recompra de ações. "
Edwards atacou o que ele disse foi o "incrível arrogância" dos banqueiros centrais, que tinham falhado a aprender as lições da bolha imobiliária que levou à crise financeira e à recessão de 2008-09.
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"Eles não entendiam o sistema, em seguida, e eles não entendem como eles estão parafusando-se novamente. A deflação é em cima de nós e os bancos centrais não podem vê-lo. "
Edwards disse que o dólar havia aumentado tanto quanto o iene japonês teve na década de 1990, um movimento para cima que empurrou o Japão em deflação e causou problemas de solvência para os bancos do país asiático. Ele acrescentou que um sinal da crise para vir foi o colapso na demanda por crédito na China.
"Isso acontece quando as pessoas perdem a confiança que os responsáveis políticos sabem o que estão fazendo. Isto é o que vai acontecer na Europa e os EUA. "
Europa tem mostrado sinais preliminares de recuperação no ano passado, mas Edwards disse que os esforços do Banco Central Europeu para empurrar o euro mais baixa e um crescimento mais elevado viria a nada em caso de uma nova crise. "Se a economia global vai voltar para a recessão, é cortinas para a zona do euro."
Países como a França, Espanha e Itália não aceitaria o aumento do desemprego que estaria associada a uma nova recessão, disse ele. "O Desastre do euro tem sido: é uma máquina do juízo final em favor da economia alemã."
Análise É RBS direito de prever a desgraça e melancolia para a economia global?
Royal Bank of Scotland economistas dizem que a economia global está em um ano muito sombrio, de fato. Aqui está o que os economistas pensam cinco
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O aviso de Edwards veio como mercados de ações tiveram um descanso da onda de venda visto desde o início do ano. O índice FTSE 100 subiu 57 pontos para fechar em 5929, enquanto o Dow Jones Industrial Average subiu 10 pontos no início do pregão em Nova York.
O humor nos mercados accionistas foi ajudado por intervenção do Banco Popular da China durante a noite para apoiar o yuan, a moeda chinesa com movimento maior nos mercados cambiais.
Mas o slide no preço do petróleo continuou, com o Brent cair mais 3,5% para fechar em Londres em $ 30,45. O petróleo não tem sido abaixo de US $ 30 o barril desde 2003.
Edwards brincou dizendo que depois de anos em que ele tende a ser uma voz solitária, outras instituições também foram se tornando muito mais sombrio sobre as perspectivas globais.
Ele estava se referindo ao conselho RBS, que advertiu que os investidores enfrentam um "ano cataclísmico", onde os mercados de ações pode cair em até 20% e petróleo poderia cair para US $ 16 o barril.
Em uma nota aos seus clientes o banco disse: "Vende tudo, exceto obrigações de elevada qualidade. Isto é sobre o retorno do capital, não o retorno sobre o capital. Em um salão lotado, portas de saída são pequenos. "Ele disse que a situação atual foi remanescente de 2008, quando o colapso do banco de investimento Lehman Brothers levou à crise financeira global. Desta vez, a China poderia ser o ponto de crise, disse RBS.
Enviado: 13/9/2016 16:54
Ou então foi apenas sorte.
, for derrotada, a seguir é o ISIS que vai à vida. Vai mesmo à vida, que os Russos bombardeiam a sério, não fingem que bombardeiam como os EUA, que ainda outro dia vi no "60 minutos" um bombardeiro B-1 no Iraque largar não sei quantas bombas de 250 Kg para eliminar um sniper, que fugiu apesar disso 
