Re: Ano 2013 - Principais Índices
Enviado: 3/1/2014 23:08Deixo um artigo comparando o mercado europeu e o americano ao longo dos anos, apesar de utilizar um ETF para dar uma média geral da Europa penso que a "ideia" que se pretende transmitir é bastante interessante.
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In 2013, the U. S. market has been very strong. Mean reversion is common among markets. In other words, markets that have been strong become relatively weaker, and markets that have been weak become relatively stronger.
The point is best illustrated by looking at the annotated chart comparing SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA -0.17% with SPDR STOXX Europe 50 FEU +0.16% going back to 2002.
As the chart shows, from 2003 to 2007, the European market outperformed the U. S. market by about 55%. During the financial crisis, mean reversion set in. The white horizontal line on the chart marks the 2009 low in the U.S. market for this cycle. Since then, the European market has significantly underperformed. The European market will have to go up by about 66% to catch up with the U. S. market.
Keep in mind, Europe has many problems. The concept of a common currency but different fiscal policies applied to countries with disparate work ethics is inherently flawed. Southern Europe has too much sovereign debt. However, the good news is that the European Central Bank (ECB) has been phenomenally successful in controlling the crisis. Fiscal policies in many European countries are taking a turn for the better and many European stocks are much cheaper than comparable stocks in the United States.
European large caps are strong players in emerging markets. Even though revenue of such companies are not showing noteworthy growth in Europe, due to their growth in emerging markets, overall revenues and earnings are on the rise.
In Europe, opportunities are concentrated in a bar bell; mega caps on one end and small caps on the other end.
The FEU is a good large-cap ETF for investors to consider. The WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity HEDJ +0.42% is another good ETF to consider.
Other European ETFs that investors may want to look at include the WisdomTree Euro Debt EU -2.43% , the WisdomTree Europe Small Cap Dividend DFE +0.77% , Vanguard FTSE Europe VGK -0.04% , iShares MSCI EMU Index EZU -0.27% , and SPDR EURO STOXX 50 FEZ -0.32% .
Some individual European stocks to consider are SAP AG SAP -0.09% , Siemens SI +0.09% , Unilever UN -0.25% , Royal Dutch Shell p UK:RDSB +0.31% , Deutsche Bank DB +0.30% , and ING Groep ING +0.22% .
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In 2013, the U. S. market has been very strong. Mean reversion is common among markets. In other words, markets that have been strong become relatively weaker, and markets that have been weak become relatively stronger.
The point is best illustrated by looking at the annotated chart comparing SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA -0.17% with SPDR STOXX Europe 50 FEU +0.16% going back to 2002.
As the chart shows, from 2003 to 2007, the European market outperformed the U. S. market by about 55%. During the financial crisis, mean reversion set in. The white horizontal line on the chart marks the 2009 low in the U.S. market for this cycle. Since then, the European market has significantly underperformed. The European market will have to go up by about 66% to catch up with the U. S. market.
Keep in mind, Europe has many problems. The concept of a common currency but different fiscal policies applied to countries with disparate work ethics is inherently flawed. Southern Europe has too much sovereign debt. However, the good news is that the European Central Bank (ECB) has been phenomenally successful in controlling the crisis. Fiscal policies in many European countries are taking a turn for the better and many European stocks are much cheaper than comparable stocks in the United States.
European large caps are strong players in emerging markets. Even though revenue of such companies are not showing noteworthy growth in Europe, due to their growth in emerging markets, overall revenues and earnings are on the rise.
In Europe, opportunities are concentrated in a bar bell; mega caps on one end and small caps on the other end.
The FEU is a good large-cap ETF for investors to consider. The WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity HEDJ +0.42% is another good ETF to consider.
Other European ETFs that investors may want to look at include the WisdomTree Euro Debt EU -2.43% , the WisdomTree Europe Small Cap Dividend DFE +0.77% , Vanguard FTSE Europe VGK -0.04% , iShares MSCI EMU Index EZU -0.27% , and SPDR EURO STOXX 50 FEZ -0.32% .
Some individual European stocks to consider are SAP AG SAP -0.09% , Siemens SI +0.09% , Unilever UN -0.25% , Royal Dutch Shell p UK:RDSB +0.31% , Deutsche Bank DB +0.30% , and ING Groep ING +0.22% .