CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Tks Elias!

Tenho andado distraído... Até a Holanda está com défices brutais na ordem dos 30MM

Défice Holanda

Divida Holanda

O voto nos partidos pró-euro prova que os europeus do Norte da Europa, apesar do esforço associado ao auxilio que têm de prestar aos países do Sul da Europa, não são comparáveis aos benefícios políticos, económicos e sociais que arduamente foram conquistados desde o inicio do processo de criação da uma união europeia.

Mas provavelmente, a maior conquista, para todos nós, Europeus é a sensação e o conforto transmitido por uma PAZ duradoira que esta união de estados garante.

Por isso sempre que as circunstâncias colocarem em causa a continuidade deste projeto, os Europeus vão responder sempre pelo garante da existência de uma União dos Estados Europeus.

pedrinha

Resultados oficiais:

The new-look lower house of parliament
http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2 ... or_v_1.php


VVD 41 (31)
PvdA 39 (30)
PVV 15 (24)
CDA 13 (21)
SP 15 (15)
D66 12 (10)
GroenLinks 3 (10)
ChristenUnie 5 (5)
SGP 3 (2)
PvdD 2 (2)
50+ 2 (0)

Entre parêntesis o nº deputados anterior


Quem é o quê dos partidos politicos
http://www.dutchnews.nl/elections/

antes isso, que a coisa estava tremida...

Felizmente parece que não vai haver instabilidade política na Holanda!

(Reuters) - Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals are one seat ahead of the opposition Labour Party, an exit poll taken after the close of polling stations on Wednesday showed.

The two pro-European parties had 41 and 40 seats respectively out of a total of 150 seats in parliament, the exit poll by Dutch broadcaster NOS/RTL showed, beating expectations and giving them enough votes to form a two-party coalition.

(Reporting by Anthony Deutsch; Editing by Sara Webb)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/ ... CY20120912

Já agora deixo os links:

Emissão televisiva em directo
http://nos.nl/nieuws/live/politiek24/

Quem é o quê dos partidos politicos
http://www.dutchnews.nl/elections/

1ªs Projecções

1º VVD 41 Lugares(+10)Direita Liberal

2º PvdA 40 Lugares(+10)Trabalhistas

3º SP 15 Lugares(=)Partido Socialista

4º PVV 13 Lugares (-11)Extrema Direita

4º CDA 13 Lugares (-8)Democratas Cristãos)


Os 2 primeiros conseguem maioria absoluta, mas não sei se fazem coligação

Hoje a Holanda vai a votos e a esquerda radical ia bem lançada nas sondagens, alguém sabe a que horas são conhecidos os resultados?

Quarta-feira a Holanda vai a votos.




The Euro Crisis
Real-time updates and analysis of Europe's debt crisis


At a Glance: Dutch Elections
September 10, 2012, 4:59 AM


ELECTION DAY

Dutch voters will head to the polls on Wednesday, Sept. 12. Polls open at 0530 GMT and close at 1900 GMT. Vote counting starts immediately after the polls close and the first — unofficial — results will be published by public broadcaster NOS just after 1900 GMT. The process normally goes on until the early hours of the following morning. Final official results will be published Monday, Sept. 17 by the national election council.

WHY IT MATTERS

The outcome of the elections may influence Europe’s austerity-focused approach to dealing with its debt crisis. The German-led austerity drive has been strongly supported by the outgoing government of Liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte. But a large number of Dutch voters are frustrated with belt-tightening and have become increasingly wary of bailing out southern European governments. “The Dutch elections might shift the balance of power in Europe towards less austerity and reduced support for further bailouts,” according to ING.

VOTING SYSTEM

The Dutch voting system is based on proportional representation and doesn’t use an election threshold. This means that a party that wins 10% of the vote will also occupy roughly 10% of the 150-seat Lower House. So, a party will secure a seat if it wins at least 1/150 of all the votes. The system makes it easier for small and exotic parties to enter parliament. One example is the Animal Party, which currently has two seats.

THE PARTIES

Twenty-one parties are competing in these elections and around 10 are expected to win enough votes to enter the Lower House. As in previous years, opinion polls show a fragmented and increasingly complex political landscape. The center-right Liberal Party of Prime Minister Mark Rutte is taking the lead in the polls, but is far from securing a majority. His party is closely followed by the center-left Labor Party and the far-left Socialist Party. Parties that could play a role in a possible coalition include the far-right and Freedom Party of Geert Wilders, who is campaigning to have the Netherlands exit the euro zone. Others include the centrist Christian Democrats, the social-liberal Democrats 66, and the center-left Christian Union.

FORMING A GOVERNMENT

As no single party is able to secure an outright majority in parliament, political parties have to build a coalition to form a government. Political horse-trading begins immediately after the vote. The biggest party usually initiates negotiations by appointing a mediator, who then consults with potential coalition partners. But reaching agreement can be a lengthy process. The talks normally take months rather than weeks, and may as well collapse a couple of times before a deal is on the table. When there is finally an agreement, the Queen appoints a ‘formateur’ who forms a government. The Queen also formally appoints the ministers and state secretaries.

MARKET VIEWS:

ING: The outcome of the Dutch elections might shift the balance of power in Europe towards less austerity and reduced support for further euro-zone bailouts. The rise of the Socialist Party, together with continued strong showings of the far-right Freedom Party of Geert Wilders, who is aggressively campaigning that the Netherlands should abandon the euro, has led the international investment community to question the future EMU orientation of the Netherlands.

RABOBANK: The ongoing fractured nature of the polls raises the risk of the formation of the Netherlands’ next government proving a somewhat protracted affair. This is something of a concern given government formation is ordinarily a protracted affair — on average it took 86 days for the 13 cabinets that were formed since 1977 with the record being 208 days in 1997.

JPMORGAN CAZENOVE: Coalition possibilities are hard to handicap at this point given how tight and fractured the race is. What is clear is that it will likely take considerable time to negotiate the coalition, leaving Netherlands with a weak caretaker government through year-end. The eventual coalition will be more left-leaning than the previous administration. However, fundamentally, this election probably matters less to domestic Dutch finances than it does to euro-zone crisis policy.

COMMERZBANK: A so-called purple coalition of Labor, the Democrats 66 and the Liberal Party is within reach again, having already governed from 1994 to 2002. Judging by the latest surveys, this coalition is only two seats short of an absolute majority. Such a coalition would be a good sign for the reduction of the Dutch budget deficit.

http://blogs.wsj.com/eurocrisis/2012/09 ... elections/

PMACS Escreveu:Será que vamos ter uma Europa vermelha dentro de uns anos?

Os europeus estão preocupados com a perda dos seus direitos, mas acima de tudo com os seus SNS, educação dos seus filhos e com as suas futuras reformas.
E os partidos de esquerda são os que mais defendem essas situações. Por isso acho lógico haver uma viragem à esquerda nas eleições legislativas.

Holanda: Esquerda radical pode fazer história nas eleições de Setembro


O Partido Socialista holandês lidera a corrida às próximas legislativas, segundo os estudos de opinião.

A Holanda vai a votos dia 12 de Setembro e as sondagens apontam para que pela primeira vez na história do país possa vir a ter um primeiro-ministro da esquerda radical, de acordo com o "El País".

Emile Roemer, antigo professor e actual líder do Partido Socialista, holandês já passou pelo maoísmo e pelo marxismo-leninismo, tem um discurso eurocéptico e segue na frente das sondagens. Não poderá, porém, no caso de ganhar as próximas eleições governar sozinho, caso se confirmem os resultados das últimas sondagens.

Para conseguir a maioria parlamentar o partido teria que reunir 76 assentos parlamentares de um total de 150. As sondagens apontam para 36. O que obrigaria a uma coligação, mas, devido à extremada ideologia, será difícil. As sondagens apontam para que o segundo partido mais votado seja o seu principal opositor: os Liberais de Direita.

O Partido Socialista, que em 2004 chegou a ter 25 assentos parlamentares, tem agora 15, mas segundo as sondagens poderá conseguir 36. A esquerda radical opõe-se às políticas impostas pela UE e Roemner afirmou que “se a Holanda superasse o limite de 3% do défice e a UE multasse [o país] por isso, teriam que passar por cima do meu cadáver para que pagássemos”, numa época em que a economia holandesa prevê um défice de 4,6% para 2013.

Como forma de superar a crise económica e financeira, o candidato perpetua um dos clássicos da esquerda holandesa, “devolver a voz ao cidadão”, promovendo uma grande aliança social.

Na Grécia o Syriza, coligação da esquerda radical, esteve em vantagem na maioria das sondagens realizadas. Contudo, nas eleições de 17 de Junho a força política liderada por Alexis Tsipiras saiu derrotada pela Nova Democracia, ainda assim conseguiu ficar em segundo lugar, à frente do PASOK.
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php ... &id=574387

Será que vamos ter uma Europa vermelha dentro de uns anos?

Can the Netherlands Keep Its Triple-A Rating?
Published: Tuesday, 21 Aug 2012 | 3:47 AM ET Text Size
By: Liza Jansen, special for CNBC.com

Moody’s is threatening to push the Netherlands out of Europe’s coveted triple-A club, and not without reason.

The euro zone’s debt woes have paved their way deeper into northern Europe, and as a decisive solution to the crisis remains out of sight, more signs are emerging that the Netherlands can no longer uphold its status as being one of the region’s safest havens.

Its economy is on the brink of another recession, according to Rabobank, which forecasts that GDP is likely to contract again in the third quarter following to slowing foreign trade and sluggish domestic consumption. Official data showed on Monday that consumer confidence is at a low ebb, and a property crisis is looming as the debt on one in four mortgaged homes is expected to exceed their value, according to Dutch bank ING.

At the same time as the economic landscape is worsening, the political campaign season is in full swing as the country heads for an election on September 12, splitting Dutch voters on whether the government should stick to its EU budget target, and stirring resentment over what is widely seen as German-imposed domestic deficit reduction targets.

But Hans Stegenman, analyst at Rabobank, doesn’t think the Dutch elections will further endanger the countries’ triple-A status. “I don’t foresee any coalition government that would not be able to live up to European criteria,” he told CNBC.

What could possibly threaten the country's rating however would be the length of the formation of the coalition government after the elections. “If financial markets think a government formation will take too long, this could be potentially risky. And if the Socialists win the elections, the formation will take months,” Stegenman said.

Stegenman thinks the Netherlands would only be in danger of losing its triple-A rating if the euro zone crisis continues to worsen and other current triple-A rated countries - Germany, Finland, France, Austria – are downgraded.

Although Moody’s economic outlook is rather gloomy, and challenging economic conditions lie ahead, U.S. ratings agency Fitch remains confident on the Dutch economy and said in June that it would maintain the Netherlands' triple A rating.

Nomura [NMR 3.57 0.01 (+0.28%) ] has warned that the Dutch elections will have an inconclusive outcome which could be followed by weeks, if not months, of coalition negotiations before an unstable and possibly more eurosceptic new government emerges. The formation of the previous cabinet took 125 days.

Nomura also doubted either a Socialist or a VVD (Liberal) led coalition would assure governmental stability, but argued that the latter would be the better outcome from the perspective of euro zone cohesion.

At the moment Prime Minister Mark Rutte's pro-euro right-wing Liberal Party (VVD) and the far-left Socialist Party (SP) are vying for lead position to form a coalition government, with the SP currently leading the pack with 36 seats, against the VVD’s 32 seats, according to Maurice de Hond, a leading Dutch opinion poll.

The Dutch cabinet collapsed in April when the goverment failed to agree over budget cuts to meet EU targets. Days after the collapse, Rutte’s care-taker government managed to win support from the three opposition parties for the budget measures.

Leader of the Socialist Party Emile Roemer stirred Dutch media last week when stating that his party would not pay a potential fine if the Netherlands failed to meet Brussels' financial targets. “Over my dead body,” he said.

But Stegenman doesn’t think Roemer would stick to these promises when he would get elected because the party would have to deal with a coalition government which has to live up to Europe’s criteria.

Malfunctioning Euro Zone

In an interview with CNBC, Roemer expressed discontentment over the euro zone’s current workings.

“Instead of moving forward, Europe has been moving backward since the beginning of the financial crisis. Control of certain countries has been given to a technocratic institution, or an undemocratic institution, (…) which has created a gap amongst Europe’s population and has pushed collaboration further away,” Roemer said.

Roemer however does not advocate a break-up of the euro. His perspective on how the euro zone can leave the crisis behind is if southern European countries would clean up their mess, battle corruption, and would start to become competitive again, he said.

Roemer called on northern European countries to not just cut costs, but to also start investing in their economies again, which would bring back economic growth and would than allow southern European countries to hop on northern Europe’s bandwagon of economic growth.

“The current economic situation in the euro zone calls for investments, rather than a set of rules that need to be lived up to. We’re currently on the wrong track by prioritizing rules over circumstances,” Roemer said.

By Liza Jansen, special for CNBC.com. Twitter: @lizajansen

© 2012 CNBC.com[quote][/quote]