O relatório assume um certo nível destes "passivos contingenciais" no pico de 119% estimado, mas não é claro quanto dos 30% do risco total este número incorpora.
De qualquer forma é uma estimativa total que incorpora a soma do risco de 3 factores no pior cenário:
Factor 1: Alargamento do programa de consolidação a mais entidades públicas (provavelmente estão a falar do SNS).
Factor 2: PPP
Factor 3: Banca
Sugiro uma leitura do relatório da S&P:
http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings ... 5337948496
A parte que fala dos passivos contingenciais (contingent liabilities) é esta:
Factoring in the support the state provides to Portuguese banks and
state-owned entities, we expect general government debt to peak at around 119%
of GDP in 2013 before declining slowly. We also see the risk that the scope of
general government consolidation will expand to include additional public
sector entities that rely heavily on government transfers, resulting in an
upward revision of general government debt. Public Private Partnership (PPP)
contracts, mostly for infrastructure projects, could also pose contingent
liabilities. When we also include the potential need for additional banking
system support if it comes under severe stress, we estimate the total
contingent liability to the government could exceed 30% of GDP