CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Enviado: **4/3/2013 16:00**

US Oil and Gas Boom Takes Many by Surprise

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100513916

"The rapid growth in U.S. oil production has surprised even industry insiders.

Forecasts that once sounded far-fetched are becoming reality. The oil production boom had been expected, but the magnitude of change in such a short period of time is a surprise. U.S. oil production is at its highest level in 20 years, while at the same time U.S. oil demand is at a 17-year low."

Enviado: **19/12/2012 11:29**

"Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank, told CNBC the "revolution" in shale gas in the U.S. could push WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude down to $50."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100324757

Enviado: **14/11/2012 11:33**

upanddown Escreveu:
QuimPorta Escreveu:Se calhar achas que estás a brincar

Claro que não. Esse tema é discutido aqui:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3fa97bf8 ... z2C8Ytcpb9

O "maçete" para abrir com o tradutor aqui não funcionou

Mas o suplemento está online em .pdf

Fiquei a saber que a China acabou de lançar o primeiro porta-aviões.

So if the US retreats from the role of quarantor of the sea lanes, who will replace it? Can China fill its shoes? Most analysts believe it will be a long time before Chinese warships are patrolling the Strait of Hormuz.

Beijing’s military power – and ability to project it beyond its own borders – remains puny compared to that of the US.

Its great geopolitical rival has 11 aircraft carriers, whereas China launched its first in September

Enviado: **13/11/2012 21:40**

QuimPorta Escreveu:Se calhar achas que estás a brincar

Claro que não. Esse tema é discutido aqui:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3fa97bf8 ... z2C8Ytcpb9

Enviado: **13/11/2012 16:39**

carrancho Escreveu:E aquele "gelo que arde", ninguém consegue forma viável de lhe extrair o gás?!?

Carranchinho, uma coisa tão acertada que disseste e ninguém te deu atenção... Eu dou pronto pronto

Alaska ice tested as possible new energy source
Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:28 AM EST

ANCHORAGE — A half mile below the ground at Prudhoe Bay, above the vast oil field that helped trigger construction of the trans-Alaska pipeline, a drill rig has tapped what might one day be the next big energy source.

The U.S. Department of Energy and industry partners over two winters drilled into a reservoir of methane hydrate, which looks like ice but burns like a candle if a match warms its molecules. There is little need now for methane, the main ingredient of natural gas. With the boom in production from hydraulic fracturing, the United States is awash in natural gas for the near future and is considering exporting it, but the DOE wants to be ready with methane if there's a need.

"If you wait until you need it, and then you have 20 years of research to do, that's not a good plan," said Ray Boswell, technology manager for methane hydrates within the DOE's National Energy Technology Laboratory.

The nearly $29 million science experiment on the North Slope produced 1 million cubic feet of methane. Researchers have begun the complex task of analyzing how the reservoir responded to extraction.

(...)
Fonte

Enviado: **13/11/2012 13:13**

upanddown Escreveu:
QuimPorta Escreveu:Pode ser que os gajos percam a mania de invadir países, que já chateia

Já se especula se serão os Chineses que vão começar a patrulhar o golfo e as rotas do petróleo já que passarão a ser eles os maiores clientes/interessados

Se calhar achas que estás a brincar :wink:

Fonte

Enviado: **12/11/2012 19:00**

QuimPorta Escreveu:Pode ser que os gajos percam a mania de invadir países, que já chateia

Já se especula se serão os Chineses que vão começar a patrulhar o golfo e as rotas do petróleo já que passarão a ser eles os maiores clientes/interessados :lol:

Enviado: **12/11/2012 13:04**

Realmente fantástico :wink:

Mas funcionou com o Chrome. Com o IE recebi um manguito

Entretanto também no resumo do relatório da IEA pude confirmar isso, embora a data referida seja 2020 e não 2017.

Pode ser que os gajos percam a mania de invadir países, que já chateia

World Energy Outlook 2012
The tide turns for US energy flows

Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North america – and the energy sector. The recent rebound in US oil and gas production, driven by upstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale gas resources, is spurring economic activity – with less expensive gas and electricity prices giving industry a competitive edge – and steadily changing the role of North America in global energy trade. By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer (overtaking Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s) and starts to see the impact of new fuel-efficiency measures in transport. The result is a continued fall in US oil imports, to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030.

This accelerates the switch in direction of international oil trade towards Asia, putting a focus
on the security of the strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets. The United States, which currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms – a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries

Enviado: **12/11/2012 12:47**

Clica no link do google translate que o artigo abre (e em Inglês ) :lol:

"
In its yearly world energy outlook, published on Monday, the IEA said that by 2030 “the US, which currently imports around 20 per cent of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms – a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy-importing countries”. It said that partly as a result of this, the direction of the international oil trade would pivot towards Asia.
...
The agency says that North America will become a net oil exporter by about 2035.
“The US, which imported a substantial chunk of oil from the Middle East, will be importing almost nothing from there in a few years' time,” Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief economist, told the Financial Times. “That will have implications for oil markets and beyond.”
...
The US is now adding more oil and gas production than any other country in the world: during the past five years it has raised total supply by 2.59mb/d, an average growth rate of 500,000 b/da year.
The US Energy Information Administration expects production will rise from 6.3mb/d this year to 6.8mb/d in 2013 – its highest level since 1993. The EIA predicts it to be as high as 7.8mb/d in 2035.
...

na reuters:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/ ... GA20121112

Enviado: **12/11/2012 12:14**

upanddown Escreveu:FT
Nov 12/11/2012

US set to become biggest oil producer

The US will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's largest global oil producer by 2017, according to the International Energy Agency, in one of the clearest signs yet of how the shale revolution is redrawing the global energy landscape

http://translate.google.pt/translate?hl ... tml&anno=2

upanddown, o acesso ao artigo é reservado.
Podes citar os dados?

O site da EIA não refere especificamente a produção de petróleo, mas antes o balanço energético global.

O relatório da EIA 2012 propriamente dito, também ainda é reservado, excepto um pequeno resumo

North America leads shift in global energy balance, IEA says in latest World Energy
Outlook

12 November 2012

The global energy map is changing in dramatic fashion, the International Energy Agency said as it launched the 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO). The Agency's flagship publication, released today in London, said these changes will recast expectations about the role of different countries, regions and fuels in the global energy system over the coming decades.

“North America is at the forefront of a sweeping transformation in oil and gas production that will affect all regions of the world, yet the potential also exists for a similarly transformative shift in global energy efficiency,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven. “This year’s World Energy Outlook shows that by 2035, we can achieve energy savings equivalent to nearly a fifth of global demand in 2010. In other words, energy efficiency is just as important as unconstrained energy supply, and increased action on efficiency can serve as a unifying energy policy that brings multiple benefits.”

The WEO finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean a sea-change in global energy flows. In the New Policies Scenario, the WEO’s central scenario, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035. North America emerges as a net oil exporter, accelerating the switch in direction of international oil trade, with almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports being drawn to Asia by 2035. Links between regional gas markets will strengthen as liquefied natural gas trade becomes more flexible and contract terms evolve. While regional dynamics change, global energy demand will push ever higher, growing by more than one-third to 2035. China, India and the Middle East account for 60% of the growth; demand barely rises in the OECD, but there is a pronounced shift towards gas and renewables.

(...)
Fonte: http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pr ... 15,en.html

Enviado: **12/11/2012 11:44**

FT
Nov 12/11/2012

US set to become biggest oil producer

The US will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's largest global oil producer by 2017, according to the International Energy Agency, in one of the clearest signs yet of how the shale revolution is redrawing the global energy landscape

http://translate.google.pt/translate?hl ... tml&anno=2

Enviado: **6/11/2012 0:21**

Peço desculpa, enganei-me no tópico.

Enviado: **5/11/2012 16:11**

"We have a chance in this country to make this the American century," Welch said. "This gas thing is huge. The gas that we have found is in the first inning — it's like the Internet in 1990. This is the first inning of the great American century."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49691507

Enviado: **13/10/2012 19:30**

"The U.S. met 83 percent of its energy demand from domestic sources in the first five months of this year"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-0 ... rkets.html

O ritmo está alucinante ...

Enviado: **13/7/2012 15:57**

Mais uma consequência do shale gás:

Estima-se que as emissões de CO2 nos EUA em 2012, recuem para o mesmo valor do ano 1990:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/02/u ... this-year/

lol o país que não assinou Kioto, é o país que mais está a reduzir as emissões de CO2

Enviado: **11/4/2012 23:35**

Duas notas:
- O preço do gás natural nos EUA, baixou hoje dos 2 USD, cotando a 1,98 USD (na Europa está aproximadamente nos 12USD !!!)

- A Mitsubishi suspendeu o projecto para a construção de uma fábrica de turbinas eólicas nos EUA, por falta de procura.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-0 ... emand.html

Enviado: **11/4/2012 15:01**

upanddown Escreveu:E a Europa a vê-los passar ...

Infelizmente a existêmcia de reservas de combustíveis fósseis não é uma questão de vontade mas de geologia.

Ainda assim se a Europa começar a explorar as suas rservas de shale gas como os EUA já fazem pderemos depender muito menos do Norte de África e da Rússia.

Enviado: **11/4/2012 12:35**

Energy Boom in U.S. Upends Expectations

They predicted that imports would keep falling, reaching 4.5 million barrels a day — or just a quarter of domestic oil demand — by 2015. By 2020, they forecast, the United States would not need to import foreign oil anymore.

“The resulting savings from the standpoint of the trade deficit are highly meaningful,” the analysts said, “especially when the benefits of cheaper energy for domestic manufacturing are taken into account. Maybe the real question is, When will Washington apply to join OPEC?” :lol:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/11/busin ... pecial2&hp

E a Europa a vê-los passar ...

Enviado: **9/4/2012 17:40**

upanddown Escreveu:"Natural Gas Surplus Threatens to Slow Drilling Boom

The U.S. natural gas market is bursting at the seams.
So much natural gas is being produced that soon there may be nowhere left to put the country's swelling surplus. After years of explosive growth, natural gas producers are retrenching. ....."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46991964

A oferta de NG no states é imensa e não existir mais "espaço" para armazenamento é surreal, mas começa-se a ver noticias como essa regularmente.

Este ano já tive bons trades a shortar NG.
Infelizmente saí e está difícil reentrar, pois está constantemente a bater os mínimos históricos. Vou estando atendo a um pequeno pullback.

Enviado: **9/4/2012 16:03**

"Natural Gas Surplus Threatens to Slow Drilling Boom

The U.S. natural gas market is bursting at the seams.
So much natural gas is being produced that soon there may be nowhere left to put the country's swelling surplus. After years of explosive growth, natural gas producers are retrenching. ....."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46991964

Enviado: **4/4/2012 14:37**

richardj Escreveu:só para não se esquecerem de que um carro eléctrico faz 100 km com +- 1/3 do custo de que um carro a gasoleo.

o carro eléctrico só tem 3 problemas:

as baterias tem pouca autonomia (+-200 km) quando um carro a derivados de petróleo consegue ter +- 600 km

Não são referidos nem o custo acrescido do veículo nem o tempo de vida útil da bateria, bem como o facto da autonomia decrescer ao longo da vida da bateria.

Existe um problema potencial adicional (que o tempo ainda terá de verificar) que é a provável maior desvalorização do veículo durante o seu tempo de vida (em grande parte devido ao desgaste da bateria e tudo o que isso acarreta, como perda de autonomia e a eventual necessidade de a repor no futuro, sendo uma peça extremamente cara).

As autonomias referidas também estão distorcidas: a autonomia típica dos veículos eléctricos anda nos 100~150Km e a autonomia de um veículo convencional actual anda bem acima dos 600Km geralmente (800~1000Km).

Em termos de custos, excluindo a distorção dos impostos, o veículo eléctrico não recupera o investimento durante o tempo de vida útil da bateria.

Enviado: **4/4/2012 13:10**

só para não se esquecerem de que um carro eléctrico faz 100 km com +- 1/3 do custo de que um carro a gasoleo.

o carro eléctrico só tem 3 problemas:

as baterias tem pouca autonomia (+-200 km) quando um carro a derivados de petróleo consegue ter +- 600 km

os países árabes/africanos dependem do petróleo para a sua existência

os americanos dependem da procura do petróleo para sustentarem a procura do dolar sem a qual conseguiriam imprimir dinheiro sem aumentar brutalmente a inflação.

o 1º problema é tecnológico e resolve-se com alguns milhares de milhões de investimento (coisa pouca fase ao potencial) a 5 10 anos.

o 2º é um problema geopolítico que envolve muitos países em desenvolvimento assim como o mundo árabe.

o 3º é politico, relativamente ao pais com mais força para influenciar os outros países.

EDIT:

os mais interessados nos carros eléctricos são as companhias eléctricas, mas se forem a ver quase todas elas pertencem ao estado e portanto dependem do poder político.

as petrolíferas são as menos interessadas, poderiam ate comprar algumas eléctricas, mas tem activos relacionados com petróleo tem de funcionar durante algumas décadas para compensar o investimento feito.

Enviado: **4/4/2012 12:41**

As vezes corre mal lol. Agora convencerem o Zé Eduardo que a coisa já não vai dar tanta nota como o planeado não vai ser fácil :lol:

Chevron’s Angola LNG cargoes to rely on spot markets
13 Mar 2012 18:28 GMT
New York, 13 March (Argus) — Chevron said its Angola LNG development will ship its first cargo in the second quarter and will initially be reliant on spot transactions in Europe and Asia for all sales.

The US company needs to resolve contractual issues with Angola's government to begin selling gas around the world because the 5.2mn t/yr plant was originally designed to ship LNG to an import terminal in Pascagoula, Mississippi, Chevron vice chairman George Kirkland said today.

A jump in production from shale formations glutted North American gas markets, pushing prices to 10-year lows. Meanwhile, LNG is selling for three to six times as much in other parts of the world, in many cases under contracts with prices linked to oil.

“It makes no sense to deliver any more gas to the US at this point in time,” Kirkland said.

Once contractual issues are resolved and the plant has “a little running time” under its belt, Chevron will revisit prospects for selling at least some of its Angola LNG production under long-term agreements, Kirkland said.

“We have a good, robust spot market for natural gas right now,” Chevron chief executive John Watson said. More LNG import terminals are being built around the world, signaling continued strength in demand for the fuel, he said.

Chevron holds a 36.4pc stake in the development. BP, Total and Angola's state-owned Sonangol own the rest. The plant will have capacity to handle 175,000 b/d of oil equivalent.

The Chevron-led Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG projects in Australia have 70pc and 60pc, respectively, of their production committed to customers under long-term contracts. Both will lock in sales of 85-90pc of their output by the time production begins, Kirkland said.

Enviado: **27/3/2012 11:10**

upanddown Escreveu:A curto médio prazo julgo que sim, mas as renováveis tem tido algum impacto, na Alemanha baixaram significativamente o preço da electricidade nas horas de pico.

As renováveis só asseguram uma pequena parte da produção eléctrica alemã. O core da produção eléctrica alemã é carvão castanho que é a forma mais poluente de produzir electricidade. É por isso que a Alemanha tem uma produção eléctrica bastante poluente.

Esta treta dos verdes alemães e da revolução energética é só para inglês ver. A base da produção eléctrica alemã is the good old dirty Lignite. Se a Alemanha acabar com nuclear mais carvão será usado.

Apesar de pouco valer na produção, graças à aposta idiota em solar num país com tão pouco sol a Alemanha tem das electricidades mais caras do mundo.

Enviado: **27/3/2012 10:46**

Quico Escreveu: Quanto às centrais de ciclo combinado, já chegam aos 60% de rendimento térmico (procura no site da Siemens); o que é ...

De facto os 60% que a Siemens atingiu em ciclo-combinado "single shaft" são muito bons, mas é como nos turbo-diesel, ganhos daqui para a frente vão ser uma batalha dura.

O aumento da temperatura da queima para conseguir mais eficiência está a levar os materiais ao limite.

CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

America is back e a nova era da energia barata nos EUA

Re: US set to become biggest oil producer

US set to become biggest oil producer

Natural Gas Could Be Bigger Than the Internet, Welch Says