Roubos no retalho alemão batem recordes. Perdas rondam os cinco mil milhões

[EuroVerde]

Sabes como é que eu interpreto esta formatura?
O PSI20 a fazer um V invertido, onde poderá de Junho a Junho 2013 subir e a Junho 2014 descer, como resultado novo acordo de "ajuda".

Não esquecendo que os EUA têm que pensar a subir o juros de referência também lá para essa altura, o que impede deste novo conhecimento uma desvalorização do dólar.

Agora têm é que pôr a economia a crescer.

[artista1939]

Objectivo: aumento nos juros da dívida.

[atomez]

Ser bom aluno, bem comportado e fazer tudo o que nos mandam pode não chegar...

Fears Grow for Portuguese Economy

Investors, economists and politicians are increasingly concerned that Portugal will need a second bailout as fears mount that it won't be able to return to markets for financing next year

While the Portuguese government's finances are covered this year as long as it abides by its bailout agreement, Portugal must regain full access to capital markets next year to help repay €9 billion ($11.64 billion) in debt coming due in September 2013.

While that date is still far off, the International Monetary Fund could require Portugal to present its financing plans a full year ahead before releasing more aid, as it did with Greece. And as with Greece, the IMF may demand fresh bailout terms if it becomes clear the country won't be able to return to market in a year. Given the yields demanded by investors on Portugal's bonds, economists fear that may become the case.

"The program assumption that the government can begin issuing longer-termed bonds again in 2013 also looks problematic," the Institute of International Finance, which represents the private creditors in their talks with the Greek government, said in a report on Portugal. "With yields on Portuguese government bonds still above 12%, despite recent declines, this assumption looks unlikely to be realized, even if fiscal deficit targets are met."

Portugal's bond prices have fallen sharply since Standard & Poor's Corp. downgraded the debt to junk two weeks ago and amid fears that Greece's debt restructuring will pave the way for other countries to do the same in the future.

Over the weekend, Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho acknowledged pressure on Portugal was growing because of instability among euro-zone countries and the S&P downgrade. The prime minister has said the country doesn't need more money or time to implement its program.

The downgrade, which made S&P the third major ratings company to rate Portugal's debt as junk, was largely in response to uncertainty the entire euro zone is facing.

In Lisbon, government officials and politicians are increasingly frustrated that Portugal's own commitment to the bailout may not be enough to appease the market.

"The drama of it all is that we can do our job exactly as required, and, if Europe doesn't answer adequately, it may all be in vain," said former Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos, who helped negotiate the bailout package under the prior government.

Bond yields and the cost of insuring Portuguese debt against default have reached record levels, prompting investors to say that holders of Portugal's debt could suffer losses on their investments, as they did in Greece.

"Bondholders must surely realize that Portugal has very little realistic prospect of paying back its debts in full," said Michael Derks, chief strategist at global foreign-exchange broker FxPro. "Discussions will commence regarding the size of haircuts that Portuguese bondholders might need to take," he added. "Some suggest it could be up to one-third. Right now, that seems like the best-case scenario."

Portugal differs from Greece in many ways, including the fact that its government enjoys a majority in Parliament that allows it to pass austerity measures to meet fiscal goals more easily. Portugal has also seen little social unrest. Last week, unions and employers agreed to an extensive labor reform that will make layoffs and salary cuts easier, something Greece and other peripheral euro-zone countries have struggled with for years.

The government has also been able to meet 2011 budget deficit targets, although that was largely due to a one-time measure under which some banks' pension assets were transferred to the social security system.

But Portugal is close to Greece in one main point: its bailout program assumed the economy would improve too much and too fast.

Since the bailout plan was agreed in June, estimates of the size of Portugal's economic contraction have been revised twice. Late last year, the government said the economy should contract 3% this year, compared with a 1.7% contraction it expected in August.

Some economists say the government's new economic forecast could still be too bullish, because internal consumption continues to fall much faster than expected, and exports won't provide the expected boost to the economy given the global trade slowdown.

Citigroup economist Juergen Michels has estimated Portugal's economy could contract 5.8% this year and 3.7% in 2013, while the government is forecasting modest growth for 2014.

During Portugal's quarterly program evaluation in December, IMF official Poul Thomsen signaled there was room for flexibility on fiscal targets "if there are strong headwinds coming to Europe."

That flexibility, however, could be short-lived if European leaders agree on a fiscal pact that would require deficits to be cut to less than 1% of gross domestic product by 2015.

Under the bailout, Portugal is expected to cut its budget deficit to 4.5% of GDP this year and 3% by next year, from 9.8% in 2010.