Enviado: 12/1/2012 12:32Pata-Hari Escreveu:e para quem vai buscar dados de 1881 depois retirar uma conclusão relativa ao período muito especifico de 2008 a 2011...enfim... o que é que uma coisa tem a ver com outra, não?
Pata-Hari ninguém está contra aquilo que estás a dizer. É um facto: nos últimos 30 anos as Obrigações foram mais rentáveis que as acções.
[Os últimos 10 anos foram uma desgraça para as acções (de 1981 a 2001 - acções versus obrigações - resulta nisto : 13,91% versus 11,19%)]
Desde que existem dados fiáveis do mercado as acções, mesmo com um retorno insuficiente nas últimas três décadas, historicamente apresentam uma valorização de 4 pontos percentuais acima das Obrigações (9,7% versus 5,7%).
«It wouldn't take much for equities as a class to post better returns than they have in recent years. In the so-called lost decade from 2000 through 2009, the return on the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, including dividends, averaged a negative 0.9% per year, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc. But even at current prices, such large-cap stocks probably won't deliver the spectacular 18% annualized average gains that a generation of buyers enjoyed from 1980 to 1999. Still, right now stocks, particularly dividend payers, look more attractive than bonds—especially if down the road there's resurgent inflation, which whittles away fixed-income returns.
"The bond outlook is extraordinarily bad," says Jeremy Siegel." Bonds are in vogue and overvalued, much as stocks were at the end of the 1990s, he says. After 30 favorable years of declining yields and rising prices, the best case for bonds over the next couple of decades is a return of "zero" after inflation—and more likely a negative outcome, Mr. Siegel predicts.
If interest rates climb in future years, as is likely from today's very low levels, the prices of existing bonds with lower rates will fall. The impact may be felt more keenly by holders of bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds than by investors who have bought individual bonds. The latter have the option to collect their bonds' full face value at maturity, while bond funds don't mature.
"We're in the very mature stages of the secular bull market in bonds," says David Rosenberg. "I'm not bearish on fixed income, but when the five-year [Treasury] note is below 1% you know the game is not over, but it's close to being over."
Stock prices, in contrast, don't appear inflated. At the end of 2011, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index traded at just under 13 times estimated 2012 earnings—cheaper than its 17.5 average price/earnings ratio since the end of World War II, according to S&P Capital IQ. Compare that with March 1999, when the S&P 500 traded at 33.5 times earnings.»
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... alreport_0
O ambiente económico parece ser mais favorável ao investimento em acções, são um melhor refúgio contra a inflação. Mas existindo dúvidas, e mesmo se não existirem, nada como diversificar a carteira por diferentes ADI.
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