CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Tojo Escreveu:Marco, muito obrigado pelos esclarecvimentos e aos restsntes menbros também.
Quando referes que "...Na prática é isto e portanto o efeito é praticamente o inverso do que estava a ser propalado" pode-se dar então tipo Panic buy?

Não, o efeito é praticamente o contrário no sentido de: "não vai agravar as situações de margin call (criar mais situações de margin call) mas antes minimizar os seus efeitos (os que existirem terão menos impacto)".

Marco, muito obrigado pelos esclarecvimentos e aos restsntes menbros também.
Quando referes que "...Na prática é isto e portanto o efeito é praticamente o inverso do que estava a ser propalado" pode-se dar então tipo Panic buy?

Grande cagaço. Estava tudo Deep in the red...

JCS

JCS Escreveu:Apenas para dizer que na plataforma já está tudo ok... Vá-se lá perceber isto...

JCS

Bom dia JCS,

Ainda bem.

" Eu não acredito em bruxas, mas que elas existem...existem"


Abraço,

Figueira

Apenas para dizer que na plataforma já está tudo ok... Vá-se lá perceber isto...

JCS

Inacreditável uma coisa destas. Se fosse em dia de semana tinha rebentado com os asiáticos, até ao esclarecimento da CME.

Os riscos de queda que existem é os que já existiam antes. A medida temporária introduzida o que faz, em geral, é reduzir o impacto de um margin call ao remover o chamado "initial margin upcharge" (que afecta os clientes que são objecto de margin call).

Uma série de sites tinha interpretado que tinham sido aumentados os requisitos de margem, o que faria disparar margin calls a torto e a direito quando é quase o oposto: o pessoal continua a estar sujeito aos mesmos margin call que antes mas, se for sujeito a um margin call tem de meter menos dinheiro (ou fechar menos posições) do que antes desta alteração. Na prática é isto e portanto o efeito é praticamente o inverso do que estava a ser propalado...

Obrigado Marco. Deduz-se então que por isto não vai existir nenhuma queda a pique, é isso?

Mas as margens subiram, certo?

Sim, foi um erro de interpretação a um comunicado da CME.

Desculpem perguntar mais uma vez: foi um erro de interpretação que surgiu?

A situação é preocupante ou não?

Obrigado

Também acho. A influência que medidas destas têm nos mercados não podem estar sujeitas a comunicados daqueles. Mandasse eu qualquer coisa e já havia pelo menos processo disciplinar no departamento de Relações Publicas.

JCS

JCS Escreveu:Clarificação da CME:

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-informati ... 11-400.pdf

Bom, é basicamente aquilo que está na citação que o LTCM deixou então.

A interpretação geral que lhe estava a ser dada era tão bizarra que custava realmente a acreditar, mas a culpa é da CME que podia ter sido mais clara logo de início.

CME Group Escreveu:
TO: Clearing Member Firms
FROM: CME Clearing
DATE: November 5, 2011
RE: CME Group Clarifies Maintenance Margin Ratios Exchange to Reduce Initial Margin Ratio to 1.00


CME Group today is clarifying its notice to clearing firms regarding margins. In light of the issues customers transferring out of MF Global are facing, while still maintaining appropriate risk management protections for the market, CME Clearing is setting the "initial" margin upcharge at zero. This upcharge is normally applied to customer accounts when they are receiving a margin call.

The intent and effect of these changes is to decrease the size of any margin calls resulting from the bulk transfer of MF Global customers to new clearing members, not to increase them.

Yesterday, CME Group successfully transferred MF Global customer positions to a new clearing member with part, but not all, of their funds, as approved by the bankruptcy trustee and the court. By reducing the initial margin “ratio” to 1.00, we ensure that margin calls that are issued to these transferred MF Global customers will be limited to bringing their accounts into compliance with the lower, “maintenance” margin levels. Maintenance margins are set to provide appropriate risk management coverage. Initial margins are set to provide an additional buffer against future losses in the account.

This is a short term accommodation to maintain market integrity and provide temporary relief to customers whose accounts have been disrupted by this event.

We apologize for any confusion our initial advisory may have created.

Aquele ZeroHedge tem é leitores a mais...

JCS

Clarificação da CME:

http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-informati ... 11-400.pdf

Pelo que leio em diversas notícias, a interpretação geral é que os novos requisitos de margem diz respeito a futuros e opções e é para aplicar a toda a gente (não apenas aos clientes da corretora falida).

Mas é uma situação tão bizarra apresentar um requisito destes de um dia para o outro que envolve valores na ordem de mil milhões de dolars que precisariam de entrar em dinheiro fresco da noite para o dia, que é possível que haja aqui qualquer coisa que está mal explicada.

Mais alguém que tenha GLD através de Cfd's e que lhe tenha acontecido a mesma coisa

Cumprimentos

JCS

Boa tarde.
Mais uma peça do puzzle.

MF Global rivals race to 'margin up' new clients

http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/0 ... 0920111104

Extracto:
Sat Nov 5, 2011 2:34am IST

REUTERS - Commodity brokers rushed on Friday to finish transferring thousands of customers from bankrupt rival MF Global, shifting their attention to the delicate task of ensuring new clients' margins are topped up by next week.

Following a court order on Wednesday, the MF Global trustee has worked with the CME Group and a handful of other mostly independent futures commission merchants (FCMs) to move the bankrupt broker's 50,000 or so commodity accounts over to new clearing firms, along with some of their collateral.

The CME said 5,300 accounts -- about one-third of the total held at the CME alone -- and $410 million in CME Clearing-held collateral had been transferred on Thursday. MF Global was the most active broker on the CME's New York Mercantile Exchange and COMEX metals market, and No. 2 in Chicago.

The IntercontinentalExchange Inc, home to the European benchmark oil contracts and soft commodities in New York, said it may auction off positions on Saturday. The Liffe exchange, where MF Global's position as a top 3 broker of soft commodities has eroded in recent years, said clients needed to shift their accounts quickly or they would be closed out. But LCH.Clearnet was not allowing clients to take out collateral.

Facing a Friday evening deadline to transfer accounts or have them liquidated, officials and brokers worked through the night to get customers trading again. By Friday afternoon, many reported that the bulk of the transfers had been done -- but most customers will need to top up millions in margin.

"The accounts we have here are actively trading as we speak," John Streich, chief executive of Penson Futures, told Reuters. His was one of 10 FCMs chosen to take over the positions, up from an initial six named earlier this week.

But there is still hard work ahead. And many customers were frustrated that excess collateral and cash on account at MF Global was still stuck there.

"The accounts did not come over fully margined, and we were aware of margin deficit and the amount of the deficit upon transfer," he said. "That's where the clients are, of course, upset ... (but) their frustration should be with MF Global."

Two sources who had been briefed by the CME said accounts would be transferred with 75 percent of the margin required to back the trades, up from 60 percent proposed in the earlier court order. That still left a hefty 25 percent chunk of cash that clients would need to raise quickly.

While traders in theory have five days to increase their escrow, brokers may require full margin in as little as 24 hours for unfamiliar customers that may be a risk, he added.

"It's wrecking the ag industry," said Lynn Wagnon, a broker at Wagnon Commodities in Coldwater, Kansas. He said 200 of his customers' accounts had been transferred, but they were now scrambling to come up with $800,000 in additional margin.

MF Global Chief Executive Jon Corzine resigned as regulators searched for the $633 million that authorities say may have been misappropriated from segregated client accounts at the biggest independent FCM in the United States. The segregated accounts were supposed to be untouchable.

Conflicting accounts emerged on Friday afternoon as to whether the funds had been found in a JP Morgan account.

Corzine, 64, former New Jersey governor and ex-chief of Goldman Sachs & Co, stepped down as CEO four days after MF Global filed for bankruptcy. The firm's leveraged $6.3 billion bet on euro zone debt had scared away clients and counterparties.


MARKETS QUIET BUT ANXIOUS

There was little sign yet of mass liquidations analysts feared may ensue as traders rushed to raise up to $1 billion in additional margin with new brokers.

But with margins only due later Friday or next week, forcible liquidation looming on Monday morning, and thousands of accounts still unsettled, dealers were jittery. Great

Pacific Wealth Management, an MF Global client whose accounts were transferred, was told it could not offset or liquidate positions for a day, said vice president Sean McGillivray.

Some were bracing for a potentially wild ride once electronic trading resumes on Sunday evening, a typically thin trading period when forced orders could roil prices.

"If clients have access to their accounts they are going to try to do everything they couldn't do during the week," said on MF Global employee. "It will be a thin session, it could be Niagara Falls through a garden hose."

Just minutes before the close of New York and Chicago trade, activity in key oil, grain and livestock markets was sharply below the daily average. Gold futures activity was near the lowest this year, and soybean volume was just one-third the norm.

"There's some unwinding, but most people are like a deer in headlights," said one commodity fund manager.

Initially, the CME anticipated that many of MF Global's segregated client accounts totalling some $5.5 billion would be transferred to one of six FCMs, according to a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission: ABN Amro Chicago Clearing, ADM Investor Services, Dorman Trading, FCStone, RJ. O'Brien, and/or Rosenthal Collins Group.

But several other brokers worked to get in on the action too, including Newedge, a top-five broker owned by two French banks, and independent Penson Futures, sources said. But one senior industry source familiar with the process said FCMs who had not been chosen to accept new accounts were told that no further transfers would be permitted for a week.

It's a boon for smaller firms like Dorman Trading, which caters principally to the "locals" in Chicago. Founded by Bernard Dorman, who has been trading on the Chicago Board of Trade since 1956 and calls himself one of America's oldest floor traders, the firm had only $113 million in client funds.

The company has taken on 400 to 500 new accounts from about 200 customers with some $7 million in margin, mostly from the professional traders with whom they traditionally compete.

"We're traders. You may want to pick a guy's pocket between 9:30 and 1:30, but at 2 o'clock you're happy to go buy him a drink in the bar downstairs," said Marc Nagel, the chief operating officer. "These were our friendly competitors and now they are our friends and partners."

Tojo Escreveu:Obrigado. Ou seja o mercado pode cair 1% por exempl ou serão moviemntos mais bruscos?

Terão que se fechar contratos porquê? desculpem a igorancia

Boas Tojo,

A única razão que te obrigaria a fechar contratos, seria não teres dinheiro suficiente para cobrir a totalidade das posições alavancadas.

Obrigado. Ou seja o mercado pode cair 1% por exempl ou serão moviemntos mais bruscos?

Terão que se fechar contratos porquê? desculpem a igorancia

Tojo Escreveu:Desculpem mas alguem pode dizer qual a fonte desta noticia e se é verdadeira??

Pode acontecer um crash???

Pf alguem de uma maneira séria e fria diga alguma coisa e não atire atoardas. estou longo e como é obvio estou preocupado. Penso que os mercados nem abriam a ser assim

A ser verdade não quer dizer que haja crash.

Existem curtos e existem longos e no aumento das margens também os curtos teriam que ser forçados a liquidar.

Portanto não é certo o movimento aa contecer disto. Haveria com certeza volatilidade.

No entanto o grupo de "Commercials" - que costumam ser os mais liquidos dos vários players no mercado - costumam estar net short em todos os meercados. Isto em principio levaria a uma liquidação de mais longos que curtos, causando uma maior força por parte da oferta.

Obrigado pelo feedback. Só segunda-feira de manhã é que vou poder ver o que se passa... Mas que me está a assustar está.

Abraço.

Desculpem mas alguem pode dizer qual a fonte desta noticia e se é verdadeira??

Pode acontecer um crash???

Pf alguem de uma maneira séria e fria diga alguma coisa e não atire atoardas. estou longo e como é obvio estou preocupado. Penso que os mercados nem abriam a ser assim