CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Excelente questão.

Pessoalmente nunca achei que fosse só a procura que implusionou o preço das commodities, especialmente do Petroil, mas sim um conjunto de fatores mais vasto que isso.
Aparentemente o Cramer terá uma opinião semelhante.

Era estranho termos aumentos de procura na ordem dos 10% (ou menos) mundialmente e a máteria prima aumentar 100% (ou mais.. )

"The China Question"
By JIM CRAMER
SEP 26, 2011
6:42 AM EDT


"How bad is China? Really, how bad? Isn't that what you have to ask yourself when you see these commodities plummet? What happened to any of the demand for copper, for aluminum, for energy? What did the Chinese do? Where did it go?

Or maybe the major hedge funds just positioned wrongly and the speculators were the "real" demand the whole time, and China's got little to do with it other than as a place you can no longer dump your speculative holdings into?

It's a difficult conundrum to resolve because if demand has really fallen off the proverbial cliff in China, then why is oil at $103 (Brent) and not say $80 or even $70? How can that stay up despite all of these other commodity free falls?

Judging by the way the oil and oil service stocks keep coming down, it does seem like Brent is about to roll over. That would be in keeping with the China slowdown story that I keep hearing everyone buzzing about.

All that said, I still do not believe China is going to have a hard landing. There's just too much innate consumer strength there and too much export demand away from China, even with a European slowdown. I think the stocks are trying to factor in a hard landing, but I also think there have been margin calls galore in the complex.

Remember what we saw in 2008. Things were bad, but the commodities and commodity funds overcorrected because there were so many commodity bets made by portfolio managers and they couldn't unwind them at once.

I think that's at work again and that the Chinese are simply in a slowdown, and no more than that. But that's not how the bets are going down now, as everything's in free fall in the commodity world and everything else holds up.

Too early to buy them. Too late to sell them. Because it will only take one or two good inflation numbers from China and the government there will be able to start declaring some victories and I think commodities will stabilize.

Random musings: It feels like the IMF is in there selling gold. I continue to think that gold's had a remarkable year and you have to let it come in more."

(in www.realmoney.com)[/b]