CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Transports Likely to Close at Historic Highs

Published: Tuesday, 15 Jan 2013 | 3:06 PM ET
By: Bob Pisani
CNBC "On-Air Stocks" Editor


Dow Transports poised to close at an historic high. This is, at first glance, a play on airlines.

Why the airlines? Because they have turned their businesses around: 1) they have paid down debt, 2) mergers have increased, with more to come, 3) they have limited capacity, and 4) raised prices.

But the group to keep an eye on is railroads. They have a bigger market capitalization than airlines and, most notably, underperformed the S&P 500 last year.

Railroads have now become relative value plays.

In addition, railroads are plays on the U.S. economy in 2013...on cars, agriculture, and coal, so any downturn in outlook will affect their recent rally.

Air freight: improving Asian freight data will help companies like Federal Express (FDX) and Expeditors International (EXPD).

g.a.

Parece que a Dow Theory anda a falhar...

Transports shine on quiet day for Wall Street

On Wednesday July 6, 2011, 4:32 pm
By Ryan Vlastelica

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Transportation stocks were among the standouts in another flat session for U.S. equities on Wednesday, and the sector's rally could be cause for optimism ahead.

Broader gains were limited as a downgrade of Portugal's credit rating weighed on banking shares, while a rate hike in China loomed as another concern for investors. However, the Nasdaq rose for its seventh straight day, extending its rally to 6.8 percent.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJI:^DJT - News) rose 1.2 percent and hit a new closing high at 5,566.07. The gains were led by Con-Way Inc (NYSE:CNW - News), which added 5.7 percent to $41.87 after the U.S. trucking company said it was restoring some employee benefits because the economy had improved.

Transports are considered a barometer for economic activity because shipping activity signals demand for goods. FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX - News) advanced 1.3 percent to $96.78 while Union Pacific Corp (NYSE:UNP - News) hit an all-time high, rising 0.8 percent to $106.59.

"Strength in transportation stocks goes a long way to signaling that manufacturing will continue to be robust and that the cyclical nature of the recovery is picking up steam," said Roger Volz, director of cash equities at BGC Financial in New York.

Volz added that if the sector maintained its highs, "that would suggest we're working out of this current soft patch and into a new leg of economic growth."

The S&P 500 has been fluctuating in a range from about 1,250 to 1,350 for the last several months, with flare-ups in the euro-zone debt crisis often serving as a catalyst for profit-taking in a short-term trader's market.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) was up 56.15 points, or 0.45 percent, at 12,626.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) was up 1.34 points, or 0.10 percent, at 1,339.22. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) was up 8.25 points, or 0.29 percent, at 2,834.02.

Moody's downgrade of Portugal's credit rating on Tuesday to "junk" cast new doubt on European efforts to rescue distressed euro-zone states without debt restructuring.

Reflecting concerns about the euro-zone debt crisis, the iShares MSCI Italy index (Pacific:EWI - News) fell 3.3 percent and the iShares MSCI Spain index (Pacific:EWP - News) lost 2.2 percent.

Banks were among the worst performers on concerns about their exposure to euro-zone debt and sluggish U.S. growth. The KBW Bank Index (Philadelphia:^BKX - News) fell 0.7 percent, with Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC - News), the Dow's biggest loser, down 2.4 percent at $10.74.

Gains were also limited by a softer-than-expected survey on U.S. services sector growth, which slowed slightly in June. The data gave investors little reason to make big bets after last week's rally drove the S&P 500 up 5.6 percent.

Michael McGervey, president of McGervey Wealth Management in North Canton, Ohio, said the 1,345 level was serving as resistance for the S&P 500, referring to a recent high on the index, reached at the start of June.

"There's new momentum in the market following last week's surge, and generally speaking, the markets have an upward bias. But until we break through 1,345, we'll be trading sideways," he said, adding that there was further upside potential if the level was breached.

The Dow was led higher by Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT - News), which gained 1.5 percent to $110.08, and Intel Corp (NasdaqGS:INTC - News), up 1.4 percent at $22.75.

China's central bank increased interest rates for the third time this year on Wednesday, making clear that taming inflation is a top priority as its economy slows gently.

The Institute for Supply Management services index showed the pace of growth in the U.S. services sector dipped modestly in June, while prices paid fell sharply to the lowest level since August 2010.

Volume was extremely light, with about 5.98 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, well below last year's daily average of 8.47 billion.

About 54 percent of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange rose, with about eight stocks advancing for every six that fell.

On the Nasdaq, 14 stocks rose for every 11 that fell. About 54 percent of the shares traded on the Nasdaq also advanced in Wednesday's session.

(Reporting by Ryan Vlastelica; Editing by Jan Paschal)

Já agora aqui fica alguma informação sobre a Dow Theory

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Theory

Dow Jones Transportation Average Close to Record High

The Dow Theorists must be chirping happily today.

With oil prices coming off their highs, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has put in a strong run, gaining more than 9% since June 10. Today, the DJTA is up 1.8% to 5521, just shy of its record close of 5527.50 reached on May 10.

All 20 DJTA components are higher today, with United Continental, Alexander & Baldwin, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Con-Way, CSX, Expeditors International, Overseas Shipping and Ryder all trading more than 2% higher.

Now, under Dow Theory, the transports and industrials must confirm trends. And Jack Schannep, who runs TheDowTheory.com newsletter, likes what he’s seeing.

“The Transports often lead the market, notice they bottomed on June 10th before the Industrials and S&P on the 15th,” Mr. Schannep says. “Now of course [the Transports] are pushing the highs while the others ‘lag’ – not a surprising development, and very encouraging from a Dow Theory standpoint.”

Like the DJTA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is scorching it, up for a fifth straight session today with a gain of about 1% to 12531. The blue-chip measure remains below a recent high of 12810.54 reached on April 29. Still quite some distance to the Dow’s record close of 14164.53 reached on Oct. 9, 2007.

Pacing the DJIA today are IBM, United Technologies, Caterpillar and Disney.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/07 ... od=yahoo_h