Semana decisiva para acordo de tarifas. EUA esperam dias “atarefados”

[Automech]

Exacto Migluso. Penso que é isso que o artigo pretende distinguir (ou pelo menos foi como o interpretei). Há uma barreira difusa onde dum lado estão os que negoceiam, como se de um negócio se tratasse, sem emoções e do outro já estão aqueles que, ainda que não o admitam, procuram no mercado algum tipo de entretenimento.

[migluso]

Por que razão vemos quase sempre os mesmos nas mesas finais dos torneios de poker?

Por que razão alguns indivíduos estão proibidos de jogar blackjack nos casinos?

[Automech]

Gambler or Investor? The Truth About Why We Trade

It is a well-worn cliche. The stock market is the capitalist casino, a place where gambling wears a thin mask called investing.

It is a place where "buy gold" or "buy Pandora" can sound a lot like "come on, seven!"

The idea, of course, is that we so-called investors aren't actually putting our money to work. We are engaging in a socially acceptable version of the lotto. We are betting the odds. Like a player at the craps table, we are trying to get hot—riding the momentum of a bull market, pulling back when the wheel of fortune goes cold.

And, just as anyone who goes to Las Vegas knows that the house usually wins, investors know that trading can be a cruel game.

There is some truth to that analysis, of course. But is it the whole truth? Is Warren Buffett simply playing a more respectable version of Texas hold 'em? Is John Paulson counting mortgages like card counter in a game of single-deck blackjack?

The answer to a large degree depends on whom you ask. Investors, academics, gambling addicts and psychologists all have their own take. Neurologists have their own observations about pleasure centers in the brain. A common thread runs through the different opinions: We get in trouble when we trade for thrills.

"In gambling, the act is done for the love or 'thrill' of it," said Prakesh Deeriya, a finance professor at the University of North Texas.

In that way, the thrill of gambling differs from trading, Mr. Deeriya said , because "the 'thrill' itself is the reward. In speculation, the return on investments is the reward, or at least the expectation of getting a return is the reward."

The distinction changes, he said, when a trader gets the thrill from pushing the button, when the high comes from playing the game, rather from winning it. "If it is there," he said, "then one can say that is gambling."

Not surprisingly, investors have a different take depending on their discipline. Elie Rosenberg, who runs the ValueSlant.com blog is a value investor. He sees the distinction between gambling and investing as a distinction between buy-and-hold investing and speculation.

Mr. Rosenberg quotes American economist Ben Graham, who argued that "investment is most successful when it is most businesslike. An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return."

Anything else, Mr. Rosenberg says, is probably gambling.

Gambling addicts would probably agree. A Gamblers Anonymous member told me that investing is a common topic in the group's discussions. Some members share stories about how obsessive trading disrupts lives and leads to financial and personal ruin.

The group has a general rule that members should hold a stock for at least 18 months—if they invest in stocks at all. Commodities and options trading seem to be a particular problem.

The link between gambling and trading isn't just a personal one, said Steven Weisman, a professor who teaches entertainment and gambling law at Bentley University in Boston. Recent Internet gambling laws have excluded day trading which, he said, "is as much of a gamble as any throw of the dice or bet on a horse."

Mr. Weisman seems to agree that long-term investing is different from speculative trading, which is more akin to gambling. He notes that the brokerage firm Cantor Fitzgerald launched a mobile gaming device for casino use that piggybacks on technology developed for the markets.

Sometimes, the line between investing and gambling can be hard to see. Tony Emerson, an investor and gambler in Austin, Texas, said that what starts out as research-driven investing can turn into a blind gamble quickly.

"Consumer sentiment is impossible to predict," Mr. Emerson said. "Models and analyses that once seemed to work to predict stock movement failed when the economy crashed."

Still, it doesn't take a market collapse for the similarities to show themselves.

"The losses and gains are generally less dramatic than craps, blackjack, roulette or poker. But just like gambling, the more you risk, the more you stand to gain," Mr. Emerson said.

The real problem, according to Todd Tresidder, a former hedge-fund manager who is now a financial coach, is that most people don't understand the odds. He argues what sounds like card-counting the markets: knowing the math takes gambling out of the equation.

"If you invest like most people, there is no difference," Mr. Tresidder said. Investors, he argues, understand the odds. "The only way you will profit over time is either by sheer luck or by betting on positive mathematical expectancy situations," he said.

Mr. Tresidder has a point about knowing the odds, but don't a lot of gamblers know the odds? They pull the trigger, make the wager, or trade anyway. It is the thrill of betting that they love.

Maggie Baker, a clinical psychologist in Philadelphia, said that the neurological similarities between traders and gamblers are striking. Whether they are about to make a trade or plunking down a bet, the pleasure center in the brain lights up, Ms. Baker said.

It says: "Oh, boy, I'm going to do something that's going to make me money."

It isn't too different from the anticipation for sex, Ms. Baker added. "In some ways, it's better to hope than get," she said.

Of course, this kind of stimulation can be dangerous. And that is why Ms. Baker said it is important to be mindful of two major factors in our control: environment and motivation. A trading floor isn't that much different from a floor of a casino in that regard. There is a lot of social support for addictive behavior.

And what are our motives? Are we trying to impress people? Empower ourselves? Is it tied to our self-esteem?

Ultimately, the difference between healthy investing and gambling comes back to the thrill. When that becomes the sole purpose of buying and selling securities, investors have crossed the line. They are gamblers.

They will be until the thrill and, likely the money, is gone.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 37330.html