Só imigração fez subir mão de obra. Contributo foi dos maiores da UE

[tiopatinhas]

Então parece que este movimento se centra numa saudável correcção que se fará nas commodaties e nas bolsas Ou será um movimento mais forte
Maio é por norma um mês de abandono... mas estas máximas têm saído furadas Será mais uma dessas situações ou será que a máxima se vai fazer valer

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Staying Calm When the Wheels Come Off"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
5/5/2011 9:55 AM EDT

"Suddenly everything, and I mean everything, has gone wrong. Suddenly it is as if anything that had been going right has reversed. Everything is being called into question, from the leadership -- the industrials -- and economy -- obvious soft patch, including a drop in hiring -- to the froth -- RenRen (RENN - commentary - Trade Now) putting Facebook at a $200 billion valuation?


Suddenly, silver, which had attracted a boatload of hot money, is sinking, sinking fast, as individuals frantically blow out of positions rather than put up more margin. It turns out that the real buyers of silver blew out of it a while ago, and it is has been all about speculation.

Suddenly, after thinking there is no top in oil, we recognize that there is no bottom. It is totally one way, with the money coming out so fast that it looks just like 2008, when oil dropped $80 in a few weeks.

Suddenly we recognize that earnings are all in question, and that any gains could be wiped out by a rapid reversal in the dollar to the upside, post no-vigilance in Europe and a recognition that an economic soft patch in this country and rate rises in other countries that have strength is producing a disastrous scenario for future industrial earnings.

It's all going to hell in a handbasket, right?

Or do we take a breath here and say, "OK, everything got overbought, and we are now in a correction that won't end until all the weak hands are shaken out and we have some return to rationality."

Do we say the leadership is now Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Trade Now) and the financials, really? Or do we say, after we wipe out the margined players in all of the commodity and industrial names, that they will be ready to roll higher again?


I think it is the latter. I think silver is a precursor but not a perfect precursor. That is a thin market, dominated by retail, which could be wrecked by forcing people to put up higher margin. I do believe that if the margin were raised in oil, we would see oil go to $90. I also think that if we didn't have ETFs, we would be at $90. But we have ETFs, and I see no sign that any other margin requirements will be boosted, even as I think that's wrong. We always seem to err on the side of keeping margin rates low, whether it be in stocks as they were kept low in 2000, or in the grains and oils right now. We never seem to realize what an effective tool margin can be, because the exchanges don't care about orderly markets that are "true"; they care about trading volume, and higher margin drives down trading.

So, I think that this is a real serious correction in a very hot market, not a leadership change that will lead to a dramatic decline in all prices, which is what would happen if we really believe that the financials and the soft goods are going to become the generals.

We have had a remarkable run. Many things seem to be going wrong at once. We have companies hurting from higher commodity costs, and we have commodity costs hurting. That can't last. The latter corrects the former. We have ridiculous valuations in the IPO market, but not our IPO market, and we have to recognize that the froth from those markets isn't being imported to ours. We needed oil lower -- we can't suddenly decide we needed it higher.

The commodities are self-correcting. The stocks are correcting. We've been overbought forever. When the bloodletting is done, I suspect we will still be up for the year and ready to recharge.

But the bloodletting has to continue as long as we have so many people betting the wrong way on commodities and so many people switching out of the industrials because of a soft patch, which, alas, might be self-correcting, too.

This is a correction, a swift one, but not one that will be 2008-like, because now the goal for most countries is to cool off economies, not re-ignite them. And we know that cooling off turns out to be a lot easier than starting them up again, because the moment you let up on the brakes, you get things rolling all over again. "

(in www.realmoney.com)