Cramer: "Such Inanity; Such Idiocy"
Enviado: 2/5/2011 14:04"Such Inanity; Such Idiocy"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
5/2/2011 7:22 AM EDT
"The short-term is different from the real short-term, which is different from the real real short-term. The short-term is also different from the near-term and the long-term. All have been on display in the last 12 hours. That's how I look at this Bin Laden news. As you may have seen, when the special press conference story was about to happen last night, the S&P 500 futures were up a couple of points. The extreme mystery of the "national security event," which is all we knew at 10:30 p.m. EDT, didn't budge them down -- and that was pretty accurate, somehow, given that you had to believe the news could have been bad or good.
Then those futures flew up a quick 9 the moment the real news broke but before the speech occurred, and landed at 11 points up. That's the real short-term impact, with shorts panicking on a fear of a euphoria rally and longs anticipating that retail will come in with a "feel-good" vengeance.
Then, overnight, when it was pretty clear that getting Osama meant that the war on terror was doing better than we thought, oil got hammered. People figured that if we could get Osama, we could get Gaddafi, which meant that oil had to retreat back a couple of bucks in anticipation of the collapse of that regime and a restoration of oil flow. Talk about a real real short-term -- the notion that a decline in oil would mean a decline in the S&P, as well, because oil's the driver for index. So, now the futures are just a point above where they were before the news broke! We've gone a full news cycle.
Near-term, though, I believe the market should actually be rallying, because the most substantive news I have seen is out of China -- manufacturing, at last, has slowed in that country. This means the most important central bank in the world when it comes to the international industrials -- the real driver of this market -- can soon stop tightening. It's a huge move.
What about the long term? A loss for Osama is a win for Obama, so those buying have to recognize and make peace with the idea of a second term for this president whom so many capitalists hate because of his perceived anti-business stance. Lately, though, I've got another take: If the reaction to his "anti-business stance" is a market that goes up regularly -- forgive me, but I will take it. Not all of the good that's happening can land at the feet of Ben Bernanke.
So, take it all into account and what do you get? You have a market that pretty much does nothing and reverts to its true natural colors. If the oil futures go down, stocks go down, until proven otherwise. In other words, the market's still hung up on this one ridiculous proposition -- and, yet, each time, it comes to its senses midday as oil stabilizes and the market reverts to earnings-based moves.
You have to admit that this compression of news cycles leads to pure idiocy and inanity. But, in the end, the most important piece of data is the one on China -- and it is positive. So, let the market sell off on oil, but back the near-term news -- which is China -- and pick stocks up if they get hammered.
Who knows? By the end of the day, maybe someone will remember that we just killed Bin Laden, the evil mastermind of terror, and that this is good for the country and the world! "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
5/2/2011 7:22 AM EDT
"The short-term is different from the real short-term, which is different from the real real short-term. The short-term is also different from the near-term and the long-term. All have been on display in the last 12 hours. That's how I look at this Bin Laden news. As you may have seen, when the special press conference story was about to happen last night, the S&P 500 futures were up a couple of points. The extreme mystery of the "national security event," which is all we knew at 10:30 p.m. EDT, didn't budge them down -- and that was pretty accurate, somehow, given that you had to believe the news could have been bad or good.
Then those futures flew up a quick 9 the moment the real news broke but before the speech occurred, and landed at 11 points up. That's the real short-term impact, with shorts panicking on a fear of a euphoria rally and longs anticipating that retail will come in with a "feel-good" vengeance.
Then, overnight, when it was pretty clear that getting Osama meant that the war on terror was doing better than we thought, oil got hammered. People figured that if we could get Osama, we could get Gaddafi, which meant that oil had to retreat back a couple of bucks in anticipation of the collapse of that regime and a restoration of oil flow. Talk about a real real short-term -- the notion that a decline in oil would mean a decline in the S&P, as well, because oil's the driver for index. So, now the futures are just a point above where they were before the news broke! We've gone a full news cycle.
Near-term, though, I believe the market should actually be rallying, because the most substantive news I have seen is out of China -- manufacturing, at last, has slowed in that country. This means the most important central bank in the world when it comes to the international industrials -- the real driver of this market -- can soon stop tightening. It's a huge move.
What about the long term? A loss for Osama is a win for Obama, so those buying have to recognize and make peace with the idea of a second term for this president whom so many capitalists hate because of his perceived anti-business stance. Lately, though, I've got another take: If the reaction to his "anti-business stance" is a market that goes up regularly -- forgive me, but I will take it. Not all of the good that's happening can land at the feet of Ben Bernanke.
So, take it all into account and what do you get? You have a market that pretty much does nothing and reverts to its true natural colors. If the oil futures go down, stocks go down, until proven otherwise. In other words, the market's still hung up on this one ridiculous proposition -- and, yet, each time, it comes to its senses midday as oil stabilizes and the market reverts to earnings-based moves.
You have to admit that this compression of news cycles leads to pure idiocy and inanity. But, in the end, the most important piece of data is the one on China -- and it is positive. So, let the market sell off on oil, but back the near-term news -- which is China -- and pick stocks up if they get hammered.
Who knows? By the end of the day, maybe someone will remember that we just killed Bin Laden, the evil mastermind of terror, and that this is good for the country and the world! "
(in www.realmoney.com)