CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

migluso Escreveu:Eu não gosto de falar sobre posições que tenho abertas, principalmente as de curto prazo.

Por outro lado, às vezes penso que me faz falta um "patrão" no trading. Alguém a quem eu tivesse que prestar contas no fim do dia e justificar as minhas acções.

SL
Cumps

migluso Escreveu:Por outro lado, às vezes penso que me faz falta um "patrão" no trading. Alguém a quem eu tivesse que prestar contas no fim do dia e justificar as minhas acções.

migluso Escreveu:Por outro lado, às vezes penso que me faz falta um "patrão" no trading. Alguém a quem eu tivesse que prestar contas no fim do dia e justificar as minhas acções.

With Stock Picking, Mind Your Own Business

Managing a portfolio is like running a business. And because we still live in a relatively free country, for the time being at least, you should take advantage of the fact that nobody else needs to know your business. Same goes for your portfolio positions: They're your business alone.

If I own Nomura ( NMR: 6.22, -0.36, -5.47% ) then I'm interested in the price, not anybody's individual opinion of it. The price action, which is by definition the summary of the entire world's opinion, is what should guide our judgment. Honda ( HMC: 42.79, -1.70, -3.82% ) is going to do whatever it's going to do regardless of what Uncle Billy or the guys from the accounting department think about it.


We look for validation by talking about our investments, but in reality it only ends up messing with our minds. I'm not going to sell my Mitsui & Co. ( MITSY: 360.18, -10.32, -2.78% ) just because the dog walker doesn't like it. So why bother even asking?


The more you evangelize a position, the more you invest into talking about it, the more likely you are to become attached to it. So suddenly our opinion on Orix ( IX: 53.94, -1.58, -2.84% ) , for example, is motivated by the fact we've told all our friends about it and want to be " right " rather than the price action of the security and how it fits into a portfolio.


Even more detrimental, we end up talking about our positions only with people we know will agree with us. Gold investors seek out other gold investors. They read gold investor websites, attend gold-related conferences and subscribe to gold newsletters. Our influences end up becoming self-reinforcing dogma which only tells us exactly what we want to hear.


During bear markets nobody wants to talk stocks. But during bull runs, people can't wait to share their tales of market success. I don't. Just as certain locals at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ( CME: 300.08, -2.76, -0.91% ) were superstitious enough to always wear the same tie or insist on walking into the building through the same door, I envision talking about my trades attracting bad luck. In my mind, the market gnomes are always quietly watching us, ready to humble those cocky enough to brag about their foresight or predictive acumen.


Of course, in reality it's not luck at all, only that the more we talk about our positions, the more likely we are to be influenced by other people's opinions or our own emotional attachment, all factors which have no impact on the behavior of Sumitomo Mitsui Financial ( SMFG: 7.28, -0.28, -3.70% ) , which is really all that counts. There's really no good that comes from gab.


Instead of talking about my own trades, I'll indulge others who are eager to gab about their own – and profit from it. We always note the importance of finding out where the herd is investing and going somewhere else. Overconfidence and the promise of a sure thing are both triggers for me to either get short, or at the very least walk the other way.

Jonathan Hoenig