Dado o contexto geopolitico actual que parece nao dar sinais de acalmia (mas sim de agravamento e contagio entre paises)
E dada a provavel correçao que parece aproximar-se
Acabo de fechar o trade com un rendimento modesto de +1.7% jà que tinha comprado as CPR a um preço médio de 4.85€ durante o primeiro dia de "sell-off".
Podera subir mais mas... prefiro deixar os restos de ganhos a outros...
O futuros US que continuam vermelhos (e aceleram a queda nao me inspiram muita confiança..) assim como a percepçao nos mercados de acçoes da subida do crude... (aqui fica um exemplo)
WASHINGTON (AP) --
Just as the U.S. and global economies are finally strengthening, they face a new danger: Rocketing oil prices, which topped $100 a barrel Wednesday.The U.S. economy can likely absorb $100 oil and keep expanding, even though gasoline prices would rise further and growth would slow. But it would hurt.
(...)
Oil prices had been rising for months, but they jumped this week as violence gripped Libya. Analysts say any production declines in Libya could likely be absorbed by other producers like Saudi Arabia. Libyan oil accounts for less than 1 percent of U.S. crude imports.
Still, analysts say concerns about violence in North Africa and Middle East have put a "fear premium" that's added about $10 a barrel.
Consumers and businesses would feel pinched by a sustained period of $100-a-barrel oil -- and not just motorists. Stock prices, which have lost more than 2 percent so far this week, could sink further. That would reduce household wealth and consumer confidence. As fuel costs price rise, so would prices for travel services and products containing plastics.
But oil prices around $100 a barrel could threaten
European economies, many of which are net importers of oil and gas, haven't fully recovered from the financial crisis and face heavy debt loads. Spain and Italy, for example, where gas at the pump already goes for about $8 a gallon, face years of a slow, grinding recovery.
A spike in oil would deal their economies another setback.
Pricier oil would also push up inflation in Europe, where it already exceeds official targets, and in countries with surging food prices, like China, Brazil and India. Those countries might then have to raise interest rates to cool inflation. Doing so, in turn, would slow growth in Latin America and Asia.
A darker possibility -- one that few analysts expect -- is that oil prices will keep rising until they reach $150 or more and then stay there for months. Under that scenario, another recession is possible, economists say.
Enviado: 3/3/2011 19:57
