CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

“There are a bunch of high profile investors, bond investors who said ‘look we don’t rely on credit ratings for what we are doing, but those pension funds and stuff like that they need these credit ratings to protect themselves’. But the fact of the matter is it’s those people who say that they are not relying on credit ratings who are most depended on the credit rating system. Because what they do is they look at the credit ratings, they compare that to their own analysis, and they are looking for inefficiencies. And they know how the people who depend on credit ratings are going to behave. So, essentially by analyzing the credit better, they know how the other market participants are going to behave and essentially they pickpocket these passive pension funds both coming and going.”

Warren Buffett owns a bunch of Moody’s (MCO) shares and he has been dumping them for the past year and a half. For instance, all three major credit rating agencies rate Turkey’s credit rating below investment grade. S&P rates Turkey as BB+, the same credit rating as Greece. Turkey however, never defaulted in her 87 year history, has one of the lowest debt/GDP ratios in Europe (around 40%), and has one of the lowest budget deficits (around 3%). CDS properly rates Turkey’s credit rating as AA (derived from the spreads). But according to credit rating agencies, Turkey’s credit rating is BELOW investment grade. Those are the same credit rating agencies that rate Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Russia several levels above Turkey. If a country is going to default, it’s not going to be Turkey. Even doomsayer Nouriel Roubini doesn’t include Turkey among his predictions of countries that may default.

Is David Einhorn the Conscience of Wall Street?

When David Einhorn speaks, people listen. At least they do now.

paulop2009 Escreveu: e St Joe (que ele aconselha short)?

tugatuga11 Escreveu:"Entrevista com um Génio" talvez fosse mais adequado como tópico.
Abraço.