CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Sure, developing economies are growing fast. But that doesn't guarantee their stocks will soar.
By MICHAEL A. POLLOCK

Many mutual-fund investors are betting that stronger economic growth in emerging markets such as Brazil and China will lead to bigger stock-market returns there than in slower-growth areas such as the U.S. and Europe.

While emerging-markets stocks can diversify a portfolio, thus reducing the risk from a market shock in any one place, studies suggest that strong economic growth often doesn't translate into strong stock returns. The lesson for U.S. investors: It may be worthwhile keeping some money at home that you otherwise might send abroad, despite concerns about high unemployment and large government budget deficits.

"It isn't a lock that emerging-markets stocks are going to outperform going forward,'' says Joseph Davis, chief economist and principal at mutual-fund giant Vanguard Group Inc.

In a recent report, Standard & Poor's said that almost $50 billion flowed into emerging-markets equity funds this year through September, while $78 billion flowed out of developed-market funds, based on data from fund-flow tracker EPFR Global. In the week ended Oct. 6, emerging-markets equity funds attracted $6 billion, the largest weekly inflow in about three years.

Emerging economies have been growing much faster, contributing more than 100% to global economic growth during the recent recession and remaining the primary engine of global economic recovery. Moreover, these economies have been running large current account surpluses for almost a decade, accumulating significant foreign currency reserves and reducing net debt; thus, setting the stage for a dramatic expansion in domestic consumption mimicking the experience of the developed countries over the last 20 to 30 years.

The formation of a consumer society in the emerging world is an investment theme that will have a profound impact on our asset allocation in the years to come. From a technical perspective, emerging markets are still significantly underrepresented in major equity indices, accounting for only 13% of the MSCI All Countries World Index, while generating 34% of world GDP (49% on a purchasing power parity basis). As major equity indices increase their weightings of emerging markets to reflect their greater percentage of world GDP, demand for emerging market equities should remain robust.

Three geographic regions stand out: Asia ex-Japan (primarily China), Europe/the Middle East/Africa (primarily Russia) and South America (primarily Brazil). In China, the Fund is overweight sectors that will benefit from the rise of the Chinese consumer, including healthcare, telecom and technology. Private sector savings in the country are significant, as there are few social safety nets in place and people must rely solely on their own resources to meet healthcare and retirement needs.

However, the government has been working with urgency to improve welfare for its citizens, which over time will promote an increase in consumption from the Chinese middle class. Russia is by far the cheapest major emerging market with a compelling growth story and an underlevered consumer. Also, the country’s commodity-centered economy provides a natural hedge against inflation. The most attractive sectors in Russia are energy (offering a deep value investment opportunity), utilities (providing exposure to the liberalization of power prices in the country) and consumer (leveraging the growth in domestic consumption). Finally, Brazil is fortunate to have an abundant supply of hard and soft commodities, which when combined with a young population and market reforms, helped transform the country into a leading emerging economy.

In summary, the Fund’s emerging equities exposure is focused on markets with stable banking systems, under-levered consumers with rising disposable incomes and attractive valuations relative to growth prospects.