Todd Harrison: "Freaky Thursday Potpourri"
Enviado: 15/10/2010 14:33É de ontem, mas gosto sempre bastante dos artigos do Todd Harrison:
"Freaky Thursday Potpourri: Checking in on the Economy, Banks, and More"
By Todd Harrison
Oct 14, 2010 12:30 pm
"Let's play a game. I'm gonna toss out a word and immediately write the first thing that comes to mind. If you see blank spaces, don't blame me -- we have editors for a reason! Without further adieu:
BKX? Down a finski (5%) since yesterday’s high tick.
Carnies? Circus folk; nomads really.
Yankees? We could use Cliff Lee.
Breakout? Fake-out?
Time? The most precious commodity.
The FOMC? The last bullet will be pointed inward.
Festivus? FUN, and for the kids!
Semis? Forget size, SOX 350 matters!
Option flow? Big call buying and put selling continues.
Pet peeves? Hubris, long lines, close talkers, and loud chewers.
Next five percent? Lower.
The financial crisis? An ongoing movie, not a backward snapshot.
The best new show on TV? Modern Family.
Bonds as a new paradigm? Nope, that's just what they want you to think.
QE2? Buy the rumor, sell the fumes (especially if it's less than $1 trillion).
QE3? Ain't gonna be no rematch.
Minyan? Loyal.
Bikini? Small.
Heels? Tall.
Bad seasons? Good fans.
Corporatocracy? In the crosshairs.
Intern Nick? A pony -- what else?
A Quick Ditty on JP Morgan
Jamie Dimon has been forthright about where he foresees losses are likely to go in the mortgage space -- considerably higher than this quarter. There was really no revenue growth. Capital levels were actually lower this quarter than last due to stock repurchase.
One thing to admire about Mr. Dimon is that he says the same thing inside, to his board, that he says outside the organization, to investors. Please read his words and take them at their face.
He tells people where the puck is headed -- and if he sees higher losses in mortgages, there will be higher losses in mortgages.
JP Morgan (JPM) is likely best in breed when it comes to bank earnings so the fact that it’s been red on the head like a ---- on a dog since reporting may well be telling. It's also worth nothing that the stock traded up to the 200-day ($40.62) and reversed lower.
Food for thought as we continue to find our way.
Random Thoughts
Is a bird in the hand really worth two in the bush? If that's true, why wouldn't someone throw one stone at the bush.
A little levity goes a long way!
Intel (INTC) is only 2% of the NDX (as opposed to Apple (AAPL), which boasts a 20% weighting -- wow!)
Stocks that rally into earnings are usually sold on good (not great) earnings while oversold stocks are typically bought on bad (not horrid) earnings.
One of the smarter decisions I made this year was to attend the Milken Institute Global Conference (see my highlights here). I've always believed good things tend to happen when you commingle a lot of smart folks in the same room.
In that vein of respect, I wanted to pass along this report from the Milken Institute Financial Innovation Lab entitled, Ensuring State and Municipal Solvency.
The Outsiders never got the snaps it deserved. And what ever happened to C.Thomas Howell?
Timmy G sees "no risk" of a currency war? Seriously cookie? I haven't felt this safe since Big Ben assured us that subprime mortgage meltdown was contained.
I saw An Inside Job on Tuesday (featuring MV Professor Satyajit Das) and it was downright scathing. I would take issue with some of the assertions but truth be told, they mirrored much of what Minyanville wrote before the fact as it pertained to the banks, social mood and the eradication of the middle class.
NDX 2050 is the double top we've long discussed. While the sideways action of late may be a bullish base rather than a bearish churn, the risk-reward is compelling for Boo should he wanna take a short-side stab and define his risk with a crayon rather than a pencil.
Answers I Really Wanna Know...
Do you think Luther was more "macho" when hanging out with his boys?
How much of a 2:1 split is currently priced into Apple stock?
Has "inflation in things we need and deflation in things we want" come home to roost?
Despite the dollar jitters, is gold really something we need?
Can anyone point to a historical juncture when commodities were a true safe-haven?
Who is a more gifted actor: Ed Norton or Leo DiCaprio?
Will ECB Governing Council Member Alex Weber's view that the ECB should stop its bond-purchase program "now" and withdraw other emergency measures quell the QE2 swell? (Watch this please.)
Is "flat" the new "short"?
Can anyone point to a past period when an anemic short base didn't lead to a future vacuum?
Can the stock market lead the economy out of this mess given we live in a finance based economy?
Isn't that the "all in" bet the government has been making -- and continues to make?
Is door number one dollar debasement and door number two deflation?
R.P."
(in www.minyanville.com)
"Freaky Thursday Potpourri: Checking in on the Economy, Banks, and More"
By Todd Harrison
Oct 14, 2010 12:30 pm
"Let's play a game. I'm gonna toss out a word and immediately write the first thing that comes to mind. If you see blank spaces, don't blame me -- we have editors for a reason! Without further adieu:
BKX? Down a finski (5%) since yesterday’s high tick.
Carnies? Circus folk; nomads really.
Yankees? We could use Cliff Lee.
Breakout? Fake-out?
Time? The most precious commodity.
The FOMC? The last bullet will be pointed inward.
Festivus? FUN, and for the kids!
Semis? Forget size, SOX 350 matters!
Option flow? Big call buying and put selling continues.
Pet peeves? Hubris, long lines, close talkers, and loud chewers.
Next five percent? Lower.
The financial crisis? An ongoing movie, not a backward snapshot.
The best new show on TV? Modern Family.
Bonds as a new paradigm? Nope, that's just what they want you to think.
QE2? Buy the rumor, sell the fumes (especially if it's less than $1 trillion).
QE3? Ain't gonna be no rematch.
Minyan? Loyal.
Bikini? Small.
Heels? Tall.
Bad seasons? Good fans.
Corporatocracy? In the crosshairs.
Intern Nick? A pony -- what else?
A Quick Ditty on JP Morgan
Jamie Dimon has been forthright about where he foresees losses are likely to go in the mortgage space -- considerably higher than this quarter. There was really no revenue growth. Capital levels were actually lower this quarter than last due to stock repurchase.
One thing to admire about Mr. Dimon is that he says the same thing inside, to his board, that he says outside the organization, to investors. Please read his words and take them at their face.
He tells people where the puck is headed -- and if he sees higher losses in mortgages, there will be higher losses in mortgages.
JP Morgan (JPM) is likely best in breed when it comes to bank earnings so the fact that it’s been red on the head like a ---- on a dog since reporting may well be telling. It's also worth nothing that the stock traded up to the 200-day ($40.62) and reversed lower.
Food for thought as we continue to find our way.
Random Thoughts
Is a bird in the hand really worth two in the bush? If that's true, why wouldn't someone throw one stone at the bush.
A little levity goes a long way!
Intel (INTC) is only 2% of the NDX (as opposed to Apple (AAPL), which boasts a 20% weighting -- wow!)
Stocks that rally into earnings are usually sold on good (not great) earnings while oversold stocks are typically bought on bad (not horrid) earnings.
One of the smarter decisions I made this year was to attend the Milken Institute Global Conference (see my highlights here). I've always believed good things tend to happen when you commingle a lot of smart folks in the same room.
In that vein of respect, I wanted to pass along this report from the Milken Institute Financial Innovation Lab entitled, Ensuring State and Municipal Solvency.
The Outsiders never got the snaps it deserved. And what ever happened to C.Thomas Howell?
Timmy G sees "no risk" of a currency war? Seriously cookie? I haven't felt this safe since Big Ben assured us that subprime mortgage meltdown was contained.
I saw An Inside Job on Tuesday (featuring MV Professor Satyajit Das) and it was downright scathing. I would take issue with some of the assertions but truth be told, they mirrored much of what Minyanville wrote before the fact as it pertained to the banks, social mood and the eradication of the middle class.
NDX 2050 is the double top we've long discussed. While the sideways action of late may be a bullish base rather than a bearish churn, the risk-reward is compelling for Boo should he wanna take a short-side stab and define his risk with a crayon rather than a pencil.
Answers I Really Wanna Know...
Do you think Luther was more "macho" when hanging out with his boys?
How much of a 2:1 split is currently priced into Apple stock?
Has "inflation in things we need and deflation in things we want" come home to roost?
Despite the dollar jitters, is gold really something we need?
Can anyone point to a historical juncture when commodities were a true safe-haven?
Who is a more gifted actor: Ed Norton or Leo DiCaprio?
Will ECB Governing Council Member Alex Weber's view that the ECB should stop its bond-purchase program "now" and withdraw other emergency measures quell the QE2 swell? (Watch this please.)
Is "flat" the new "short"?
Can anyone point to a past period when an anemic short base didn't lead to a future vacuum?
Can the stock market lead the economy out of this mess given we live in a finance based economy?
Isn't that the "all in" bet the government has been making -- and continues to make?
Is door number one dollar debasement and door number two deflation?
R.P."
(in www.minyanville.com)