Todd Harrison: "Last Dance for Wall Street Run"
Enviado: 30/8/2010 15:26"Last Dance for Wall Street Run, One More Time to Have Some Fun"
By Todd Harrison
Aug 30, 2010 10:10 am
"The sudden acceptance of Armageddon creates a window of opportunity.
“Buy me a drink, sing me a song, take me as I come 'cause I can't stay long!”
--Tom Petty
Good morning and welcome back to the flickering pack. Following a weekend in Saratoga -- CSN and Tom Petty Friday night followed by some vibe time with the ponies Saturday -- I return to the hallowed halls of Minyanville with new-found zest and unbridled enthusiasm.
While CSN was impressive -- rocking Ruby Tuesday and For What it's Worth, in addition to their classics -- Petty rocked, as he always does. I've always said when you see Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers live, you'll never listen to them the same way again. It was such an emotional high that I almost didn't care that my big bet in the Travers for a straight win lost by a quarter nose. Such is life; it would have been the icing on the weekend cake but I'm not complaining -- nor will I back down.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Big Ben spewed his dew Friday but there wasn't anything new or different. He mused that the Fed stood ready "to provide more accommodation if needed" but "central bankers alone cannot solve economic problems." He has tools to "promote growth and oppose disinflation" (note the semantics and the avoidance of the dreaded "D" word) while admitting that the economic recovery "remains far from complete," "growth has been "less vigorous than expected," and the labor market has seen a "painfully slow recovery." Finally, he offered households are more cautious about the outlook than expected, which speaks to the "perception vs. reality" analogy we often draw attention to.
All that said and respected, we scribed an article on Thursday that posed the question, Is the Depression Too Mainstream? It's no secret that I've been a vocal (sans acrimony) bear for quite some time and given we just emerged from the worst ten-year showing in the history of the financial markets, I'm not ashamed to admit that. As we started a fresh 10-year set, however, all bets are off and looking "up and out" rather than "down and back" will not only lead to a more fulfilling journey, it will most likely facilitate a better perspective and ergo, a more enjoyable life.
There are several tangible metrics we assimilate in the marketplace -- structural, technical, fundamental, and psychological -- along with new-found dynamics (the game of chicken between Central Banks and the cumulative imbalances) and, of course, the chase between perception and reality.
As I wrote on Thursday, when CNBC ran DEPRESSION headlines and newspapers put the economic paradigm shift on the front page day after day after day, this Minyan took a step back with a scrunched nose. I still believe we have years to go to flush the system and set a stable foundation for future growth, I'm just open-minded that a rally (such as we saw Friday after I wrote that column) could litter the landscape with false hope and empty promises before the cumulative comeuppance comes home to roost.
How far can it last? Dude, if I had clarity on that, I would already own the Raiders and move training camp just outside of Denver to piss off the Bronco faithful. Since I don't, I can only offer my best intuition; the first zone is S&P 1080-1100, followed by 1130-1150, and then 1200.
I'm not saying we get there, I'm simply offering they could and we need to respect both sides (S&P 1040-1050 is the level of lore on the downside). The biggest headwinds, outside of the slowing global growth in the second half, are the low levels of volatility and the scarce percentage of bears (both negative). In short, the next week or so will be Kate Moss thin (vacations translate to more volatility, so size accordingly) before the starters return to the field in time for the September push to year-end.
Good luck today and thanks, as always, for spending your day in the 'Ville.
Random Thoughts:
"Crash" the cat has been chill and docile (mock him at your own peril -- he's been uncanny in his accuracy). He was, however, three for three after Banzai-ing into my shower last Monday morning, preceding yet another 5% dip.
We don't "do" advice in the 'Ville because we don't know your time horizon and risk profile. We tell you what we're doing, how and why we're doing it and how it's being done. Sometimes, like last Wednesday when I scooped Apple (AAPL) under $240 and punted it (flat) in front of four out-of-the-office meetings (and watched it trade five bucks higher), I get more satisfaction knowing our words, if not my P&L, added value.
We were going to write a column highlighting how three very mainstream media organizations lifted our content (almost word for word) and spun it as their own but we decided to take the high road (it's less crowded and has a better view). Besides, I'll start to worry when they stop cribbin’.
I can't shake the sense that Goldman (GS) gets taken private when the stock trades in the double-digits.
Yeah, I still think we trade to S&P 860; I just don't think it's in a straight line from here, as you might have surmised by the opening miss this morning.
I'm outie Friday as I begin my journey left. West Coast flava Minyans who wanna belly up in SF (9/10-11) or SD (9/12-14) can tickle Gibby for more details.
"I know there are women like my best friends who would have gotten out of there the minute their boyfriend gave them a gun to hide but I didn't. I gotta admit the truth, it turned me on."
While I'll be out of town, MVHQ will be ushering in the start of Monday Night Football on September 13th for a great cause. Any NYC-area Minyans wanna join?
Why do people still trade economic headlines? Don't they know that the market, as a forward-looking discounting mechanism, has already priced in the news?
Social unrest? What social unrest?
You wanna see some exclusive video from the IMF meeting in Spain?
When the dust eventually settles, there will be better days and easier trades. Our goal, as Minyans, is to get there together.
Fare ye well and have a heckuva great week. "
(in www.minyanville.com)
By Todd Harrison
Aug 30, 2010 10:10 am
"The sudden acceptance of Armageddon creates a window of opportunity.
“Buy me a drink, sing me a song, take me as I come 'cause I can't stay long!”
--Tom Petty
Good morning and welcome back to the flickering pack. Following a weekend in Saratoga -- CSN and Tom Petty Friday night followed by some vibe time with the ponies Saturday -- I return to the hallowed halls of Minyanville with new-found zest and unbridled enthusiasm.
While CSN was impressive -- rocking Ruby Tuesday and For What it's Worth, in addition to their classics -- Petty rocked, as he always does. I've always said when you see Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers live, you'll never listen to them the same way again. It was such an emotional high that I almost didn't care that my big bet in the Travers for a straight win lost by a quarter nose. Such is life; it would have been the icing on the weekend cake but I'm not complaining -- nor will I back down.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Big Ben spewed his dew Friday but there wasn't anything new or different. He mused that the Fed stood ready "to provide more accommodation if needed" but "central bankers alone cannot solve economic problems." He has tools to "promote growth and oppose disinflation" (note the semantics and the avoidance of the dreaded "D" word) while admitting that the economic recovery "remains far from complete," "growth has been "less vigorous than expected," and the labor market has seen a "painfully slow recovery." Finally, he offered households are more cautious about the outlook than expected, which speaks to the "perception vs. reality" analogy we often draw attention to.
All that said and respected, we scribed an article on Thursday that posed the question, Is the Depression Too Mainstream? It's no secret that I've been a vocal (sans acrimony) bear for quite some time and given we just emerged from the worst ten-year showing in the history of the financial markets, I'm not ashamed to admit that. As we started a fresh 10-year set, however, all bets are off and looking "up and out" rather than "down and back" will not only lead to a more fulfilling journey, it will most likely facilitate a better perspective and ergo, a more enjoyable life.
There are several tangible metrics we assimilate in the marketplace -- structural, technical, fundamental, and psychological -- along with new-found dynamics (the game of chicken between Central Banks and the cumulative imbalances) and, of course, the chase between perception and reality.
As I wrote on Thursday, when CNBC ran DEPRESSION headlines and newspapers put the economic paradigm shift on the front page day after day after day, this Minyan took a step back with a scrunched nose. I still believe we have years to go to flush the system and set a stable foundation for future growth, I'm just open-minded that a rally (such as we saw Friday after I wrote that column) could litter the landscape with false hope and empty promises before the cumulative comeuppance comes home to roost.
How far can it last? Dude, if I had clarity on that, I would already own the Raiders and move training camp just outside of Denver to piss off the Bronco faithful. Since I don't, I can only offer my best intuition; the first zone is S&P 1080-1100, followed by 1130-1150, and then 1200.
I'm not saying we get there, I'm simply offering they could and we need to respect both sides (S&P 1040-1050 is the level of lore on the downside). The biggest headwinds, outside of the slowing global growth in the second half, are the low levels of volatility and the scarce percentage of bears (both negative). In short, the next week or so will be Kate Moss thin (vacations translate to more volatility, so size accordingly) before the starters return to the field in time for the September push to year-end.
Good luck today and thanks, as always, for spending your day in the 'Ville.
Random Thoughts:
"Crash" the cat has been chill and docile (mock him at your own peril -- he's been uncanny in his accuracy). He was, however, three for three after Banzai-ing into my shower last Monday morning, preceding yet another 5% dip.
We don't "do" advice in the 'Ville because we don't know your time horizon and risk profile. We tell you what we're doing, how and why we're doing it and how it's being done. Sometimes, like last Wednesday when I scooped Apple (AAPL) under $240 and punted it (flat) in front of four out-of-the-office meetings (and watched it trade five bucks higher), I get more satisfaction knowing our words, if not my P&L, added value.
We were going to write a column highlighting how three very mainstream media organizations lifted our content (almost word for word) and spun it as their own but we decided to take the high road (it's less crowded and has a better view). Besides, I'll start to worry when they stop cribbin’.
I can't shake the sense that Goldman (GS) gets taken private when the stock trades in the double-digits.
Yeah, I still think we trade to S&P 860; I just don't think it's in a straight line from here, as you might have surmised by the opening miss this morning.
I'm outie Friday as I begin my journey left. West Coast flava Minyans who wanna belly up in SF (9/10-11) or SD (9/12-14) can tickle Gibby for more details.
"I know there are women like my best friends who would have gotten out of there the minute their boyfriend gave them a gun to hide but I didn't. I gotta admit the truth, it turned me on."
While I'll be out of town, MVHQ will be ushering in the start of Monday Night Football on September 13th for a great cause. Any NYC-area Minyans wanna join?
Why do people still trade economic headlines? Don't they know that the market, as a forward-looking discounting mechanism, has already priced in the news?
Social unrest? What social unrest?
You wanna see some exclusive video from the IMF meeting in Spain?
When the dust eventually settles, there will be better days and easier trades. Our goal, as Minyans, is to get there together.
Fare ye well and have a heckuva great week. "
(in www.minyanville.com)