CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

bolo Escreveu:O maior teste foi a realidade dos últimos 3 anos e aí viu-se a cara dos bancos com uma palidez, uns olhos, uns ouvidos e uns zoelhos de quem com mais uma pancadinha nas costas bota tudo cá para fora!
Aguentaram-se! Pronto, tá feito!

AC Investor Blog Escreveu:Tomaram mais-valias no Euro, numa correcção técnica, e estouraram tecnicamente com os indices americanos, colocando-os em regra geral numa tuada ascendente. Activaram o BULL.....

Atomez Escreveu:O que interessa não é o que os analistas pensam nem o que as agências noticiam nem o que aqui o "zé povinho" comenta.

O que interessa é o que o mercado avalia, em especial os seus maiores players -- os gestores dos grandes fundos de investimento internacionais -- e mais importante do que o que pensam é aquilo que fazem.

Bloomberg Escreveu:Euro Falls as Stress Test Results Fail to Alleviate Banking Risk Concern

By Catarina Saraiva and Oliver Biggadike - Jul 24, 2010

The euro fell, ending its longest weekly rally in nine months versus the dollar, on concern stress tests of European Union banks failed to identify sources of weakness that would aggravate the region’s debt crisis.

“The euro’s definitely had its ups and downs,” said Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. “Markets were questioning whether the stress tests were stressful enough, in other words, whether they were stringent enough.”

The 16-nation currency fell 0.2 percent this week to $1.2909 yesterday in New York, from $1.2930 on July 16. The yen weakened 1 percent to 87.46 per dollar from 86.57 last week. The euro slumped 3.1 percent to A$1.4414 versus Australia’s currency and 2.5 percent to NZ$1.775 against its New Zealand counterpart.

Bank Test Results

Seven European Union banks failed the region’s stress tests with a combined capital shortfall of 3.5 billion euros ($4.5 billion), according to the Committee of European Banking Supervisors, which coordinated the initiative.

EU regulators scrutinized 91 of the bloc’s banks to assess whether they have enough capital to withstand a recession and sovereign-debt crisis, with a Tier 1 capital ratio of 6 percent as a floor. Governments are seeking to reassure investors about the health of financial institutions after the debt crisis pummeled the bonds of Greece, Spain and Portugal.

The evaluations took into account potential losses only on government bonds the banks trade, rather than those they are holding to maturity, according to CEBS. That means the tests are set to ignore the majority of banks’ holdings of sovereign debt, investors said.

‘Lack of Creditability’

“There’s a lack of credibility,” said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey. “They don’t think the scenarios were stressful enough.”

Regulators tested portfolios of sovereign five-year bonds, assuming a loss of 23.1 percent on Greek debt, 12.3 percent on Spanish bonds, 14 percent on Portuguese bonds and 4.7 percent on German state debt, according to CEBS.

Long Road Ahead

“What investors recognize and will continue to believe is that the road for euro-zone banks and euro-zone policy makers is a long one,” said Samarjit Shankar, a managing director for the foreign-exchange group in Boston at BNY Mellon, the world’s largest custodial bank, with more than $20 trillion in assets under administration. “It’s going to boil down to fundamentals.”

Funding With Euros

“The euro’s likely seen its top,” Galy said. “The question going forward is whether people are going to make a cyclical bet the euro versus the dollar as a funding currency.”

The euro carry trade investing in Brazilian reais, South African rand and Australian and New Zealand dollars earned as much as 17 percent this year through June 28 before the shared currency’s rally started eroding profits from the trade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A similar trade funded in yen has lost 5 percent so far this year, while a dollar-carry strategy made 2 percent.

AC Investor Blog Escreveu:

Elias Escreveu:

AC Investor Blog Escreveu:Começo a sentir que sou o único Bull aqui do fórum....

Havia o Dwer mas deve ter ido a banhos

e tu Elias ainda não vestistes o casaco de Touro ?

Elias Escreveu:

AC Investor Blog Escreveu:Começo a sentir que sou o único Bull aqui do fórum....

Havia o Dwer mas deve ter ido a banhos

AC Investor Blog Escreveu:Começo a sentir que sou o único Bull aqui do fórum....

lunas99 Escreveu:
Bloomberg: - “This is not reassuring at all, these tests were set in such a way that most of them would pass. That doesn’t say to me that the banking system is stable.”

Nao acreditem nas agencias de rating nao acreditem na maior fonte economica que e a Bloomberg , nao acreditem na taxa de desemprego a valores record nao acreditem nos deficits desmesurados nao acreditem no credito mal parado.
Nao acreditam porque nao vos convem se as noticias que estas instituicoes transmitem fossem positivas a credibilidade nem se questionava.
Veremos por quanto mais tempo ...
Abraco
P.S. Desculpem a falta de pontuacao

ANONIMO111 Escreveu:Claro, atomez - pelo facto dos resultados serem bons e grandre parte dos bancos eurospeus terem passado, ja vem os burros dizer que os exames nao foram rigorosos.
Mas se tivessem chumbado muitos bancos, esses mesmos burros, diziam que tudo esta mal.
Sao sempre os mesmos a destruir, tipo agencias de Rating, que nao conseguiram prever a crise e depois falharam e falham sempre em tudo que dizem.
Nao acreditem em analises de rating e estudos identicos é tudo falso e elaborados por incompetentes.

Atomez Escreveu:A situação não é clara. Muita gente influente acha que os stress tests foram pouco exigentes, assim tipo exames escolares em Portugal... e por isso quase todos passaram.

Portanto não é de esperar nenhum rally na banca europeia.

Pata-Hari Escreveu:....estou fora ha quase duas semanas e com uma diferença horaria de 11 horas (estou literalmente com as horas trocadas das Europeias)...

wuzzo Escreveu:A banca é a que foi mais penalizada com a crise, mas a que deu sempre lucros. Por isso vou apostar numa subida da banca até ao fim do verao ( ~ setembro) de pelo menos 30%.
Dirão que é muito. Pois eu na realidade até acredito que será mais. Tambem acredito que possam haver dias em que as puxadas serão grandes. Ou seja: é pegar ou largar...

AC Investor Blog Escreveu:BIG SHORTSQUEEZEEEEEEEEEE na próxima semana

AC Investor Blog Escreveu:BIG SHORTSQUEEZEEEEEEEEEE na próxima semana

Bloomberg Escreveu:EU Bank Stress Tests Fail to Reassure Investors Wary of Capital Criteria

European regulators found that seven banks need to raise a combined 3.5 billion euros ($4.5 billion) of capital, underwhelming analysts who said the stress tests may not have been strict enough.

“This is not reassuring at all,” said Komal Sri-Kumar, who helps manage $118 billion as chief global strategist at TCW Group Inc. in Los Angeles. “These tests were set in such a way that most of them would pass. That doesn’t say to me that the banking system is stable.”

“I don’t think the market is so stupid as to think that they were so wrong,” said Jason Brady, a managing director at Thornburg Investment Management in Santa Fe, New Mexico, which oversees about $57 billion. “The right explanation here is that the testing was not very rigorous.”

The Economist Escreveu:Partial stress relief

THE results were always going to be contentious. Ahead of their release there were mutterings in financial markets that European regulators would give their banks a test so stress-free that it would be difficult to fail. Those who expected this easy pass found much evidence to support their view when the Committee of European Bank Supervisors (CEBS) announced the results on the evening of Friday July 23rd. The worst scenario that the stress tests envisaged was a mild recession with relatively moderate losses on bank assets including government bonds—and no sovereign default.

The sceptics' doubts were also supported by the fact that only seven of the 91 big banks tested were found to be short of capital in the worst scenario. None of the names came as a great surprise: Hypo Real Estate of Germany, ATE Bank of Greece, plus five Spanish institutions: Diada, Espiga, Banca Civica, Unnim and CajaSur.

Wall Street Journal Escreveu:With Results In, Exercise's Rigor Is Questioned

The European Union's examination of its biggest banks' ability to withstand financial shock was meant to calm Europe's rattled banking industry. But few outside observers appeared to buy into the idea that the tests were rigorous.

But with seven failing grades among the 91 banks tested, results were at the low end of what analysts expected. The amount of new capital required—€3.5 billion, or $4.5 billion—fell well shy of analysts' expectations. The methodology included some rosy assumptions about profit growth during a downturn.

In contrast, Swiss regulator Finma conducted stress tests on its banks that Credit Suisse Group CEO Brady Dougan this week described as "twice as severe" as the EU tests. The results showed that Credit Suisse and UBS AG, the nation's two dominant banks, would keep a ratio of at least 8% in Tier 1 capital to assets even in the case of a global recession, a slump in financial and real-estate markets and "sharp shocks" in European countries.

Using more modest guidelines, Europe's tests required banks to maintain a 6% Tier 1 capital ratio. Tier 1 capital includes common and preferred stock, cash reserves and certain other long-term "hybrid" securities.