CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Valkyrie Escreveu:Obrigado pela partilha, Fingerspitzengefuhl.

É curioso como este senhor deixa de fora os "emergentes" como o Brasil, e India (Já deixo a Russia de fora..) e se concentra na Ásia.

After co-founding the famous Quantum Fund he has since amassed millions with his contrarian investment strategies.

The maverick investor started putting money into the Chinese economy long before it became popular with today's fund managers.



Do you still hold the view that the UK is finished?

Well, I don't have investments in the UK. I am put off by the gigantic debts built up in the last few years by the previous government. The numbers are truly staggering.

And the UK has had a balance of trade deficit for the last 25 years which has been growing over the years. It used to rely on North Sea oil to bolster its international earnings coupled with the City of London being a financial centre. But as these have declined I don't see anything replacing this revenue stream. I think the balance of trade and debt levels will get worse.

Do you approve of the drastic cuts the coalition government recently announced?

It is useful what they are doing and very necessary if it wants to avoid the sort of problems experienced by its European neighbours. But none of the government's projections show it achieving any kind of surplus. I just see more debt down the road. If I see something relatively cheap in the UK then of course I will buy it but at the moment I'm doing nothing.

Are you as downbeat about the rest of the world's economies?

I have not been buying stocks for at least a year and a half. Lying ahead I see more currency turmoil and the world economies' problems have still not been sorted out. I moved to Asia as I see massive opportunities here compared to Europe and the US.

Many Asian economies have been powering ahead while the rest of the world suffered. But Asian economies can't pull the world out of its hardships. Even with China and India booming these can't save the day for the rest of us. As Europe continues to have its problems everybody else is affected.

So do you see the balance of power shifting to Asia?

In the 1920s and 30s there was a shift in economic power from the UK to the US and the same thing is happening now to Asia. Few people realised it at the time and the same is true now. But the continent has some of the largest creditors in the world – Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore etc all have surpluses while other major economies are massively in debt.

But doesn't Asia also have similar problems to the rest of the world, such as ageing populations?

It's true ageing populations will be a huge issue across the world especially in China where greater longevity and lower birth rates are leading to rapidly ageing workforces. But the big difference is that Asian economies have a lot of savings while Europe has debts. And European governments have made promises to their citizens that Asian governments haven't like generous state-funded pensions.

These are not the sorts of things you can take away from people overnight. If someone told me they were building a factory in Europe I would have every right to ask them if they were stupid.

But you've been buying the euro recently?

When no one wants something that should be a signal to buy it. Everyone has been selling the euro so I bought some, if only for the rally.

This doesn't mean that I think European governments have got their act together. Far from it. But the euro could go up from a rebound rally so that's why I'm interested.

But generally I think paper money is flawed. Nearly every currency in the world is flawed, the euro just happens to be less flawed than others.

I've also been buying the Danish Kroner and the Swedish Kronor but I'm not buying any more now.

So if you're not investing in equities where else are you putting your money?

There are lots of alternatives. I own gold and it is reaching an all-time high but that doesn't mean I'm about to sell it. While now might not be the best time to buy gold there are other precious metals that are well off their all-time highs.

Foe example silver is about 60pc off its all-time high so could be a buying opportunity. Anything that is so far off its all-time high gets me interested. Platinum and palladium are also nowhere near their historic highs.

Are you still bullish about commodities?

Agriculture has been a horrible business to be in for the last 30 years but I see some good opportunities there as the world demands more food. Sugar prices are very depressed. Something like 75 per cent off their all-time high back in 1974. And coffee prices are also depressed. Farming is one of the few areas I am optimistic about.

You might think these sorts of commodities' values were peaking especially something as basic as rice given the demand for them but it takes a while for the markets to catch on.

If you don't feel confident enough buying the individual commodity there will always be an index or an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) that tracks it.

And what lies in store for your homeland?

The US has similar problems to the UK with massive debt levels. In fact it is the biggest debtor the world has ever seen. So I have no investments there either.

But what really worries me is that some states, counties and cities have been or are on the verge of going bankrupt. California is much larger than Greece and we've seen the fallout from the Greek debt crisis.

A lot of promises have been made in these cities and states from both the public and private sector and these have been papered over. Greece has been going on about its debt for a decade and people weren't paying attention. The same is happening across the US. The Fed has already bailed out the banks and I wonder how its finances will cope once more bankrupt states and cities approach it.