Tarifas só em agosto podem salvar prendas de Natal

[Automech]

Se calhar o autor queria que o S&P subisse só com as escolhidas dele Para ser sincero ainda estou para ver alguém ter sucesso consistente apenas com base em análise fundamental. Afinal os fundamentais estão sempre a mudar...

Eu não sei é se haverá alguém que tenha tido sucesso semelhante com AT, ao nível dos que já tiveram com AF (e eu sou insuspeito para dizer isto porque tenho usado exclusivamente AT, ainda que mais recentemente me tenha começado a interessar pela AF).

O melhor é nem começarmos a famosa discussão de quantos analistas técnicos estão na Forbes

[Pedro Miguel]

Para ser sincero ainda estou para ver alguém ter sucesso consistente apenas com base em análise fundamental. Afinal os fundamentais estão sempre a mudar...

Warren Buffett?

Nem mais, e agora parece que adquiriu 10% de uma empresa chinesa que diz ser uma ameaça para todas as empresas do Ocidente, O nome da empresa é BYD.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/13/technol ... c.fortune/

[LTCM]

Para ser sincero ainda estou para ver alguém ter sucesso consistente apenas com base em análise fundamental. Afinal os fundamentais estão sempre a mudar...

Warren Buffett?

[helderjsm]

Os investidores investem com a manada porque muitas vezes é assim que se ganha dinheiro!

Se calhar o autor queria que o S&P subisse só com as escolhidas dele Para ser sincero ainda estou para ver alguém ter sucesso consistente apenas com base em análise fundamental. Afinal os fundamentais estão sempre a mudar...

Acho que o Autor não leu o artigo do Ulisses em que fez a análise à CIMPOR e acabou por perder mesmo tendo razão

[LTCM]

Refiro-me à conclusão do artigo:

"Thus, if you buy individual stocks, you should note which way the herd is moving—and go the other way. You should get interested in a stock when its price gets trampled flat by investors stampeding out of it. The list of new 52-week lows is a rough guide to what the voting machine has been trashing lately." ...." you set in stone exactly where you stood before the herd began trying to sweep you away.

De forma mecânica os resultados são similares, o Victor Niederhoffer já testou isso, e os tipos da blackstar tanbém. Mas o que o Jason Zweig diz é diferente, ou seja: Ser um "contrarian" mas saber filtrar as candidatas através de uma análise fundamental «run your own weighing machine, studying the company's financial statements, products and competitors to determine the value of its business».

[Pata-Hari]

Refiro-me à conclusão do artigo:

"Thus, if you buy individual stocks, you should note which way the herd is moving—and go the other way. You should get interested in a stock when its price gets trampled flat by investors stampeding out of it. The list of new 52-week lows is a rough guide to what the voting machine has been trashing lately." ...." you set in stone exactly where you stood before the herd began trying to sweep you away.

[/quote]

[LTCM]

LTCM, então já foi contradito este comentário, certo?

Pata-Hari podes explicar melhor?

[Pata-Hari]

LTCM, então já foi contradito este comentário, certo?

[rsacramento]

vendo apenas em diagonal estou em crer que isso é um dos anexos do trend following, do m covel

não é de anexo nenhum... É um estudo da BlackStar, se aparece depois noutros lados já não sei.

não te abespinhes

não é de um, é um

ou melhor, está como - foi cedido graciosamente, mas está como apêndice no livro que já referi

[Supermann]

vendo apenas em diagonal estou em crer que isso é um dos anexos do trend following, do m covel

não é de anexo nenhum... É um estudo da BlackStar, se aparece depois noutros lados já não sei.

[atomez]

Sex, drugs, stocks and rock'n'roll?

Hmmm...

[rsacramento]

vendo apenas em diagonal estou em crer que isso é um dos anexos do trend following, do m covel

[Supermann]

Seria engraçado fazer um back test e testar os resultados de investir no top X das empresas que mais sobem e apostar no top X das empresas que mais descem (critério de saída, saída da lista de top X). E verificar resultados.

Não sei se isto é o que descreveste. Backtest de comprar todos os all-time highs versus lows.

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[LTCM]

Seria engraçado fazer um back test e testar os resultados de investir no top X das empresas que mais sobem e apostar no top X das empresas que mais descem (critério de saída, saída da lista de top X). E verificar resultados.

De forma mecânica os resultados são similares, o Victor Niederhoffer já testou isso.

[Pata-Hari]

Seria engraçado fazer um back test e testar os resultados de investir no top X das empresas que mais sobem e apostar no top X das empresas que mais descem (critério de saída, saída da lista de top X). E verificar resultados.

[LTCM]

So That's Why Investors Can't Think for Themselves
By JASON ZWEIG

From February through May, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 1000 points in an almost uninterrupted daily march upward. Then came the "flash crash" of May 6 and day after day of losses through May. Now, in mid-June, the market has been up six of the past seven days.

What accounts for these sudden moves? Why do investors so often seem to resemble a school of fish, all changing direction together?

Sometimes the most interesting answers to financial questions come from scientific labs. A study published last week in the journal Current Biology found that the value you place on something is likely to go up when other people tell you it is worth more than you thought, and down when others say it is worth less. More strikingly, if your evaluation agrees with what others tell you, then a part of your brain that specializes in processing rewards kicks into high gear.

In other words, investors often go along with the crowd because—at the most basic biological level—conformity feels good. Moving in herds doesn't just give investors a sense of "safety in numbers." It also gives them pleasure.

That may help explain why market sentiment can change so swiftly, why true contrarians are so hard to find and why investors care so much about the "consensus view" on Wall Street.

In the experiment, researchers from University College London and Aarhus University in Denmark asked 28 people to submit a list of songs they wanted to buy online and then to decide which they would most like to own. Then the participants viewed the ratings of the same songs by two professional music experts. Meanwhile, a magnetic resonance imaging machine recorded the patterns of activity in their brains. Finally, as a way to measure the influence of the experts' views, the participants had the chance to change their minds about which songs they wanted the most.

The brain scans showed that as soon as people learned they had chosen the same song as the experts, cells in the ventral striatum—a reward center wired with dopamine neurons that respond to pleasures like sugar and sex—fired intensely.

"If someone agrees with your choice, it's intrinsically rewarding in the same way food or money is rewarding," says one of the experimenters, Chris Frith of University College London.

Why might other people's estimates of what something is worth lead you to change your own? Their appraisal could make you unsure that yours is correct. You might become more popular once you agree with others, or joining the experts may make you feel like one yourself. "We are very social creatures," says Prof. Frith, "and we are desperately keen to be part of the group."

"When someone influences you, it happens very quickly, in under a second," says the lead researcher, Daniel Campbell-Meiklejohn of Aarhus University. "That mechanism can travel quite quickly through a population."

The experiment also showed that learning that the experts agree with one another—regardless of whether you agree with them—triggers activity in the insula, a brain region associated with pain and heightened body awareness. This suggests that the agreement of others may have a special ability to grab our mental attention. No wonder a consensus opinion is almost impossible for many investors to ignore.

Benjamin Graham, the founder of value investing, wrote that "the market is not a weighing machine, on which the value of each issue is recorded by an exact and impersonal mechanism, in accordance with its specific qualities." Rather, he added, "the market is a voting machine, whereon countless individuals register choices which are the product partly of reason and partly of emotion." Herding, Graham understood, is part of the human condition.

Thus, if you buy individual stocks, you should note which way the herd is moving—and go the other way. You should get interested in a stock when its price gets trampled flat by investors stampeding out of it. The list of new 52-week lows is a rough guide to what the voting machine has been trashing lately. Then run your own weighing machine, studying the company's financial statements, products and competitors to determine the value of its business—while ignoring the current price of its stock. And make a permanent record that thoroughly details your rationale for making the investment. That way, you set in stone exactly where you stood before the herd began trying to sweep you away.

Write to Jason Zweig at intelligentinvestor@wsj.com