"TAP não sobrevive se se mantiver pública", garante Pinto Luz

[Zecatreca_1001]

Bom texto do Cramer...
Bem...se fui de ferias e nao entrei longo la em baixo, ainda bem que estou de ferias agora...
a zona dos 1115 no sp pareciam importantes....mas nunca pensei que durasse4 tanto tempo a indecisao nesta area.

O que vejo para hoje:
Ou parte com força para cima e cai com mais força para baixo, ou entao cai e temos novo uptrend segunda-feira.
cumprimentos para todos os caldeireiros

[helderjsm]

Incrível, concordo com tudo o que ele diz. Ou parece que o mercado sabe algo que "nós" (o Cramer e muitos outros como eu) não sabem, ou...

Bem só não percebo como é que ele ainda está longo na Apple, a empresa portou-se muito bem estes últimos anos, mas a menos que se vire para outros mercados não sei se os Iqualquercoisa's vão ser receita certa por muito mais tempo.

[Ulisses Pereira]

"A Cap on the Upside"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
6/18/2010 7:07 AM EDT

"All my trading life I have tried to see order where there appeared to be chaos. I always wanted to know what the market knew, what made it act as it did, if it did so for more than a couple of days when I didn't understand it.

We are in one of those moments. I tried so hard this week to be as bullish as the market and to try to figure out why I would want to buy knowing what I know, and more important, why I would want to buy aggressively at some times, when it seemed to make no sense.

I scan the headlines. The news in retail is worse than I thought, in part because of the Gulf spill and in part because of a malaise that seems to have set in nationally. OK, that's what I see. What could the market be seeing that I don't? I think the spill is causing some of the malaise. Does the market think the spill's about to end, or that the damage is not as great as I do? I am willing to consider it, but as I have said many times here, I think it is far worse than many think and that the plans for stopping it aren't as likely to stop it as if it just runs its course. One hundred million barrels. Lots of course to be run.

Could the market know that income growth is going to shoot up? That's hard when the employment claims keep proving that theory wrong week to week. Does the market know about taxes going lower in the future that would give us good purchasing power? Name me one place in this country where taxes are going lower.

Nowhere. Nothing.

Housing? So important that it catches fire now, not that it stalls out, although I still don't see the drop others do. I can't say that's going to happen. The good news here is that there are fewer homes being built. The bad news is that lower mortgage rates aren't yet stimulating demand. I am willing to concede, however, that housing can reignite and I might be missing something.

Autos? Incentives are back. We were doing well without them. We introduce them and it is confirmatory of things getting worse, not better.

Yes, financial regulation is almost done and that matters. I think those stocks can rally, but one thing is certain -- they have not only NOT been responsible for this bid underneath, they have been destructive to it. So they are no help in understanding Mr. Market.

Tech? Depends on the day. I like tech, but I did a piece last night about Apple (AAPL - commentary - Trade Now) that explains why I like tech -- it is about Apple and its derivatives and then secondarily cloud computing and its derivatives. So Arm Holdings (ARMH - commentary - Trade Now) and Cirrus Logic (CRUS - commentary - Trade Now) and Skyworks (SWKS - commentary - Trade Now) work, as do VMware (VMW - commentary - Trade Now) and Salesforce.com (CRM - commentary - Trade Now).

Exports? I think that what we have seen in the last month is that we have become far less competitive than we were courtesy of the euro. I do agree that since the euro has bottomed, a bid has been put in underneath all stocks that have huge euro sales. However, anyone who argues that we are more competitive after this euro fall is dreaming. So a better euro is a floor and a ceiling.


Oil? Like it. Scarcity factor coming. Doing better off of China. Instrumental to the gains we have had but from such a low level.

The industrials? Their bid is from China and the notion that China hasn't fallen off a cliff. That's real. I get that if the companies only sold in China and not the U.S. and Europe. But they do, so again, I am mystified.

Finally, the transports, which are the real leaders of this market. Here's where I have the maximum confusion. You know this is a rally led by the rails and the airlines. The whole time we have been rallying, that's been the case. This move may be the most mystifying of all. Airlines signal robust travel and business spending. Why? WHY? The rails? Commerce, steel, coal, chemicals, wood, is strong. How can that be? Sure, exports to China make sense, but not EVERYTHING goes to China. Some stays here.

Oh, and there is gold. I think that's rallying by default because of my initial assumption that things are just so darned bad.

Put it all together and here is what I come up with. The market is being led by a group -- the transports -- that I can't fathom. That can mean either a.) I am totally wrong and there's a boom coming that is obvious to someone but not me, or b.) we were priced for everything falling apart because of Europe and China and when they didn't, we went back to some level that signaled we are not all falling apart.

So, here's the rally in nutshell: We didn't deserve to go to Dow 9730. We had a huge slingshot back up when it turned out that neither Europe (as represented by the strength in the CurrencyShares Euro (FXE - commentary - Trade Now)) or China (as represented by the strength in China) fell apart.

But now we need more than that. Unless I am missing something in the litany that makes us stronger. We didn't deserve to be at Dow 9730. But with this fundamental backdrop, we don't deserve to be rallying to 10% higher than that -- call it Dow 10,600, the top end of my range. So, I think on the info that I have the market can rally 1%-2%, no more.

I don't want those last few percent based on something I can't figure out. That's why I suggested the pajama factor yesterday, guys trading off of the euro -- Europe's good! -- and oil -- China's good!

The pajama factor doesn't take into account the largest market in the world. Because it doesn't, I think it's unrealistic for the market to punch any higher than 1%-2% more.

That 2% is all yours to get. I don't want to risk it.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Apple. "

(in www.realmoney.com)