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'tou te estranhando Cramer...

"Riddle You Right Back, Dougie!"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
6/8/2010 12:10 PM EDT

"Is the "market" cheap? Is it, as Doug Kass suggests, compelling because it is selling at 12-and-change times earnings? Yes, it is cheap if the earnings come through. Yes, it is cheap if Europe resolves itself. Yes, it is cheap if China declares victory over property inflation.

Otherwise, no.

Here's why. We saw many upward estimate revisions after the last quarter was reported. Many. We saw so much good that analysts couldn't resist taking up numbers in the belief that employment would improve, that Asia was stable to getting better, and that Europe was blah.

We only care about future earnings when we are trying to figure out if stocks are cheap. What has happened since the end of last quarter and the reporting period? I saw (riddle me that!): (1) Europe's become a danger zone with wholesale austerity being put through, (2) the United States failed to stem hiring losses and (3) China has slowed, taking Asia with it.

I do not see how we can make those earnings estimates. There is too much translation risk from the euro. Too much growth risk from Europe, China and, now, the United States.

Now, the good news is that at a certain point, lower stock prices will price in the new estimates. But I have always believed that markets in general go higher when estimates move up and go lower when estimates come down.

So I say, wait. Estimates simply cannot be as good as they were when they were last made.

And that's my riposte to my friend Dougie's view on what I wish were the case."

(in www.realmoney.com)

"Sell the Rally"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
6/8/2010 9:53 AM EDT

"Ben Bernanke matters. If Ben Bernanke says things are better, then they are better. He has genuine gravitas. He can make a difference.

I know, don't get too negative. The analysts' downgrades are actually good news there. We need number cuts. We need more pessimism. We need to see people get fed up. We're getting it. That's the positive/negative sentiment I am talking about, where so many hate the market that it's good.

Plus, Banco Santander (STD - commentary - Trade Now) and Banco Bilbao (BBVA - commentary - Trade Now) are holding in and General Mills (GIS - commentary - Trade Now) isn't screaming higher. Perhaps those are the most hopeful signs of all. But it's early with those three canaries.

So, I say, let it rally. Sell into it. Reposition. Don't buy. Don't chase. Don't play the rally. Get set up for the next day when Bernanke won't speak, the euro gets killed again and foreign ministers in Europe erode the confidence that Bernanke gave us this morning.

Random musings: I am continually being asked if I like gold. Yes. It is not a trade. It is an investment. I am not going to deviate from that view. "

(in www.realmoney.com)