CALDEIRÃO DE BOLSA

Esta discussão é interessante.

Acho que nesta altura os quants com os seus sistemas algoritmicos de negociação estão na mó de cima.

O que se está a passar é que há uma enorme volatilidade nos mercados que não tem contraponto na economia real.

A economia real está muito melhor do que seria de esperar. Os fundamentais estão bem -- retoma do crescimento, inflação baixa, taxas de juro baixas, petróleo e matérias primas estáveis, resultados das empresas no geral bons e muito bons... Numa situação normal (se é que o "normal" existe) deviamos estar num bull market, não exuberante mas estavelmente em crescendo.

Vendo bem, as intervenções dos "powers that be" sobre a crise financeira tiveram o condão de a conseguir isolar da economnia real. Pelo menos até ver...

Só que a psique humana, o tal "sentimento do mercado" -- não sabia que o mercado tinha semelhante coisa, os humanos é que têm -- está altamente receosa e qualquer notícia mais negativa faz vacilar de imediato o mercado. Ele é a Europa, a China, o derrame de petróleo, qualquer coisa faz logo recear o pior e os investidores... desinvestem.

Ao menos os sistemas automáticos estão imunes a essas atribulações, os algoritmos e os computadores não têm emoções. E assim vão tirando partido da situação.

Bonito de ver. Desta vez vamos ver se o Cramer tem razão.
Neste momento estou bear a curto prazo (dentro de 1 mês/semanas) e creio numa ida do SP500 dos 1220 ao intervalo (890;927)

"Sorry, Doug, I Don't Buy It"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
5/27/2010 11:08 AM EDT

"I'm not buying into the long-term positives piece that Doug Kass has posted this morning. Let's take them point by point:

Investors replace renters: Nah, I see nothing but renters, and the "Flash Crash" only exacerbated this. The regular person and the mutual funds that are the repositories of their funds aren't committing money like they did. Not only that, but the individuals aren't even opening accounts anymore.

Fear is the friend of the rationale buyer: That's fine if the fear keeps the person in the game but with a big cash position. It is not fine if the individual has left entirely. It is true that allocations to equities are low, but why should they be larger? They have been horrible returners.

Emotional markets create opportunity: Doug says that emotionalism is replacing a look at the fundamentals. It isn't emotionalism, it is ETFs. Stocks are commodities, hostage to the S&P and sector ETFs. Fundamental research has never meant less to stocks, and it means less and less each day.

Stronger U.S. growth prospects: Here I agree, but I think they weren't as strong as they were a month ago, and there is a huge reliance on European sales for many companies. The IMF is mandating austerity and it is happening. That's not good for sales or for our GDP.

Rising equity risk premium provides good entry point. I think a good entry point will be after the collapse of a European country's bonds or some large European banks. That will give us a panic low to buy on. We can buy ahead of Europe doing the right thing, but I have to be skeptical so far. Remember, "Trichet to European Banks: Drop Dead."

S&P profits intact. I now think that S&P estimates are too high -- way too high -- because of the strong dollar and a weak Europe and a Chinese market that still isn't stimulating enough. I don't think that $83-$85 a share can be done. I also think that big firms like Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Trade Now) and Qualcomm (QCOM - commentary - Trade Now) -- admittedly poor executers -- have already made it clear that the numbers are too high.
I don't hate the market. But I don't like it either. I keep emphasizing accidental-high yielders because I think we need protection from the market. I agree with Sen. Ted Kaufman from Delaware that the market's broken. I see the people leaving in droves. They think it is rigged by the quants. I don't think "rigged" is the right word, but I sure agree with the sentiment.

I want to see some resolution to Europe before I change my cautious view, because I believe you could see Dow 8260 if Trichet doesn't get on board and fix things. Otherwise, I see downside to Dow 9500 that would also be a better entry point. Unless you have accidental high-yielders or companies that have special situations (Apple (AAPL - commentary - Trade Now)) going for them, I agree with the previous Kass -- the one where the machines are killing us . And I can't change that. Not now. Hopefully not ever.


At the time of publication, Cramer was long AAPL"

(in www.realmoney.com)

Muito interessante este debate entre o Kass e o Cramer. Vou colocar aqui o artigo do Doug Kass e já coloco o do Cramer.

"Finding Meaning in the Market's 'Meaningless' Moves"

By Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver Contributor
5/27/2010 12:15 PM EDT


"Away from the numerous fundamental headwinds -- higher tax rates, the long tail and aftershock of the last credit crisis (both here and abroad), deleveraging's role in slowing economic growth, risks of a double dip, geopolitical concerns, partisan politics and global fiscal imbalances -- individual and institutional investors' confidence is being shaken by the market's volatility and the sharp and random moves.

As I have written, the market is in the hands of high-frequency trading strategies. Once accounting for 50% of the day's trading volume, that share has increased ever further (probably close to 70% now) in the face of hedge fund "de-risking" and in the absence of inflows into domestic equity mutual funds. Quick and sudden moves, such as we saw in the last half hour in trading last Friday and yesterday, are the consequences of the aforementioned low-volume voids filled by the HFT community's momentum-seeking weapons of market destruction.

While I have argued in favor of killing the quants before they kill us, there is a brighter side of the negative impact of these dark pools of algorithmic trading strategies that are undermining market confidence.


Investors replace renters: Renters are being taken out of the market as stocks move into stronger hands.

Fear is the friend of the rational buyer: The introduction of fear (ever-present today) -- fear that an investor can lose 1%-3% in a nanosecond -- is an important ingredient to establishing a better foundation for a real rally in equities. Just look at the impact of fear on The Divine Ms. M's oversold oscillator this morning. In its usual place at the bottom of the page, it is all but ignored!

Emotional markets create opportunity: When investors' fundamental views (which should account for almost all of our investment decisions) are thrust aside and are increasingly disregarded, hyperbole and emotion take over.

Stronger U.S. economic prospects are ahead: As the HFT strategies wreck havoc, investors are increasingly losing sight of the relatively upbeat economic/fundamental recovery in the domestic economy.

Rising equity risk premium provides good entry point: The markets are now discounting a second-half domestic slowdown and, by my calculation, are now discounting 2010 S&P earnings of only $70-$72 a share. The equity risk premium is now between 5%-6% -- well over the long-term trend line of 3.5%.

S&P profits intact, P/E has contracted: The leading and coincident indicators still point to 2010 S&P earnings of $83-$85 a share. The market's multiple now stands at only 12.7 times, against 17 times when inflation and interest rates are contained (as they are now).
The abrupt market moves have temporarily distracted market participants from the reasonably good prospects for the U.S. economy and for better profit trends for the component companies of the S&P Index.
While I view the fundamental headwinds (listed in the first paragraph of today's opening missive) as real and as an influence in capping the eventual upside to the markets, the outsized and disruptive role of quant trading is providing a short-term opportunity to buy stocks cheaply, and I see the recent week's action as a precursor to a good rally in equities.

Color me increasingly bullish. "

(in www.realmoney.com)