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Cramer 1 - Finantial Times 0

China nega que esteja a sair da dívida europeia

"A Europa tem sido, e será, um dos maiores mercados para investir as reservas cambiais da China". A afirmação, curta e assertiva, foi feita esta manhã pelas autoridades chinesas que desmentem categoricamente a notícia desta manhã do "Financial Times".

Eva Gaspar
egaspar@negocios.pt

http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/index.ph ... &id=427663

A longo prazo preocupa-me a relevância estratégica que a China está a assumir por via da dependência financeira que está a criar. A realidade é que não é um país democrático, e em muitas ocasiões se tem notado que as suas motivações vão muito para lá do interesse típico de quem actua numa lógica de mercado.

Já em 2008/2009 se falava na excessiva dependência do tesouro dos EUA em relação aos títulos da dívida vendidos aos chineses, necessários para as medidas de anti-depressão e de salvação dos bancos. Espero que estas "ajudas" não venham a sair caras.

Detestaria vir a lamentar não ter aprendido chinês...

Ainda vamos ver obrigações europeias nas lojas dos 300 (agora renomeadas "lojas do euro e meio")...

"In This Market, Any Rumor Will Do Us In"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
5/26/2010 6:47 PM EDT

"Global toxins! I am talking about European bonds of any stripe.

Can you imagine what would happen if China decided it had had enough of Europe and was going to dump bonds like mad? I will tell you what will happen. You will see tariffs out the wazoo on Chinese goods in Europe, and Beijing knows it. That is the price they have to pay if they decide to dump bonds.

"You dump our bonds, no more dumping of goods on us."

Yet, the market took it seriously. As I said here, then reiterated on "Stop Trading," the euro is way too easy to rumor down, so we are stuck in a netherworld where Dow 9500 is the downside target, unless we get a systemic breakdown caused by a huge China sale of European bonds. In that case, we go to Dow 8260.

I now fear that we will hit that lower level if Jean-Claude Trichet doesn't stop worrying about inflation so much and get behind the austerity plan. (Kudos to Matt Horween, my associate, for suggesting the "Trichet to European Banks: Drop Dead" line, which I expropriated, and then Helene Meisler complimented me on it!)

Today was eerily like some of the bad old days of 2008, when we were deeply oversold and it didn't matter. Nor did the good Baltic freight numbers matter, and don't forget that the Baltic Dry Index can't be tampered with or rumored down or bear'd down or ETF'd down, or Ultra'd down, because it isn't a stock index, it's an actual rate.

So, once again, we learn not to trust the market, not to get excited. Any buys made when the market was up 1% are painful to look at now, and a constant reminder that buying up just doesn't work, especially when you are going to get plenty of chances to buy down. Rumors, like the China one, can come any day of the week, and we are obviously not near some natural level for the euro. Not at all.

We still don't matter. One day we will. But certainly not yet. "

(in www.realmoney.com)